Dojji

The thing that makes me nervous about Werth is what a late bloomer he is. He's really only had 3-4 good seasons and only 1-2 really elite ones. I'm not entirely sure that we'll get the Werth we think we're getting with the guy, either because he falls off in the new environment or because he isn't as good as we expected. and when you're spending that kind of money you need to be able to be sure.

My prediction, this is going to turn out like last year, when we all debates which one of the two high-priced over 30 FA's the team would sick money into, until both of them signed with teams more determined to overpay for premium talent than the Sox are or should be. In the end, I firmly believe that Ryan Kalish will be ready to be a productive right fielder with 15-20 HR talent and strong baserunning and OBP skills sometime within the next 18 months, and quite possibly on the nearer end of that bad. He was closer than you think to putting up that kind of rate stats this year. That being the case the team is not going to overpay for either player and instead will either find a quick stopgap or, if they like what they're seeing from Kalish, just play the rookie. Apparently Bill James is very high on the kid and it's fairly easy to see why, don't rule out him breaking camp with Boston instead of them shooting for a "now" player. I suspect they'll go for a mid-range right fielder like Brad Hawpe and mix him with Cameron, and solve their hole in left field by slotting J. D. Drew there to give him less ground to cover and cut down on his wear and tear.

No matter how you hype Werth, he isn't Matt Holliday. He's a good player, not a great player. He will be paid like a great player, mostly because there are few other power hitting OF's available. It's an overpay though. The fact is that there hasn't been a really decent FA class in nearly a decade other than possibly '08.

You'll be waiting awhile. The success Theo has had over the last 6-7 years will mean he gets a long rope before anyone really seriously considers axing him.

If the team tanks, I'll still be here. Let the thin skins and pink hats panic about us maybe not being a contender. Just lets us know who the fans are and who the fakes are.

Actually I think Russel Martin would be a really good tandem catcher to bring in alongside a youngster. There's no power in that bat -- at all -- but he's athletic, has a good arm, and gets on base reasonably well. If he has to have a sub-100 OPS+, he's loaded the stats he does have in the right places -- OBP, baserunning, and defense. He works the count, gets on base, and does something meaninful once he's there, that's a potent combination even without power. It's not every catcher that can lead off, but Martin has the skillset with his OBP and baserunning to fill in in the 1 hole at least as well as Scoot did last year. Throw Martin and Salty into the mix and we'd be doing fairly well for ourselves, especially with Expo and Lavarnway each maybe 2 years out. If there's a way to bring RM in inexpensively, you have to be all over it.

What is it with the Sox and ex-Royals? Kyle Snyder, Fat Elvis, Tug Hulett, now Parraz. Parraz is a corner outfielder with a little trickle of longshot upside, will be lucky to make an NHL bench but the light hasn't quite gone out yet. Hes a year removed from a moderately impressive 2009 campaign, but he was old for his level and he's tapered off against age appropriate competition, so counting on him is silly but as a guy who could be "in the mix" or could fill in for a couple days if a guy goes down there's worse options.

Kaloish is a legit 5 tool prospect that isn't that far off. I don't think it would be that terrible an idea to just run with him, if he can hit .270 or higher all the other rate stats will look very good and the speed and baserunning ability he has is high caliber. Give him a couple years and he'd be a heck of a leadoff type, Damonesque almost. Add his power projectability, which is nontrivial, and you have a guy who's worth getting a little excited about. He's got upside in the .290/.360/.450 20 HR 30 SB range if it all clicks, and the stat guys like his chances of clicking. I wouldn't crowd the outfield with expensive over-30 players right now with him in the wings, with Drew, Ellsbury and Cameron already on contract I don't think going after a big name FA outfielder is really as plausible as it appears.

I could stand D-Lee, but this team better have an alternative in mind if he can't bounce back. I don't think Rizzo's quite ready and Anderson has been disappointing me for years.

This is not a team that believes in matching the prices of the most desperate of the other teams to keep their FA's, it's a pattern we've seen for long enough that we shouldn't be surprised at it anymore. I think we all need to be braced for the FO to have convinced themselves that Saltalamacchia is the wave of the future at catcher for this team. As he's apparently fixed his throwing mechanics and brings some actual offensive upside, I wouldn't be stunned if they used him and a Brian Schneider type to back him up or play a "doesn't quite suck completely" kind of game if it doesn't work.

Or just cut the middle man and DH Jeter

Pipe dream. Texas' financial situation is weak. They aren't able to stretch like NYY can stretch looking for winning players.

One of the things about trying to be a perennial contender is that the immediate payoff is not always the most important consideration.

Kalish didn't embarrass himself last year, his numbers were actually pretty solid for a rookie. Like I said, if he can get his BA into the .270 range the rest of his rate stats would fall into line pretty nicely, and he's got a high 5-tool ceiling. I wouldn't be too upset if they decided to roll him out as a starting OF next year, and used Cameron to protect him from being too badly exposed. They should only do it if they are hauling back the reins a little, but it's something a lot of teams would do with a player like Kalish.

Older college power bats tend to get discounted. Too many of them go the way of Aaron Bates. I still think though that as long as the Sox are convinced that he's a catcher he should be on there, even if he's more Mike Piazza than Joe Mauer. I'd have kicked the two guys who haven't even played for the Sox system yet in favor of Vitek and Lavarnway in some order until those two have shown what they can do under live fire.. Speaking of, Piazza's an interesting comp for Lavarnway, considering relative performance at the same age -- Lavarnway's a little ahead which is interesting, and neither of them were/are great defenders ever. Food for thought.

3.6 BB/9. Stuff is fantastic, but I think moving him to the pen happened because of his command. If he was even a bit better about not walking people I'd be right there with you.

This is nothing more or less than a shot across V-Mart's bows. This is about what he's prepared to do if he has to, not some kind of preference to Salty over other options. All they're doing here is trying to gain some leverage in negotiations by trotting out the alternate.

But there were reasons to count on any one of the three of them to pull through some issues and continue to be effective as well, and none of them did.

It's not a question of whether it should have been addressed early. Rather whether it could have been. Even cellar dweller teams don't like to deal their quality veteran players, the "proven" guys you insist on, much before the deadline because they help them fill the stadium for a few months until the fans realize it's just another of those years and that's a lot of money on the table for cash-strapped franchises. We would have had to overpay to get a reliever from most of the guys who had one to spare before June, and by then it's already too late. I do think your analysis is spot on, that they thought the starters would cover for the bullpen better, but I want to add that, again, no one had any reason to believe going into the season that Oki, MDC and RR would fall off the face of the earth the way they did. Even the first couple months of bad play might have simply been a couple months of bad play, MDC had been fluctuating between dominant and awful for his entire Red Sox tenure, just as an example, no reason to believe that tight mightn't turn in our favor with a bit of patience, even if it didn't turn out that way..

The fact is that you have to assess his bullpen WITH that caveat, because it exists as a real fact. Bullpens are the last fronteir for most GM's, it's really difficult to build one that's consistent from year to year because a handful of bad games can inflate a reliever's numbers for entire seasons. That's why the question you ask is a lot harder than you're pretending it is. Because all bullpens are inconsistent to a greater or lesser degree, and even when you get the chemistry right one year there's no guarantee that exactly the same mix of guys will get the job done next season. Realistically all you can do is go for the best talent you can without giving up major assets for relief pitchers (which is stupid) and that's what Theo did, and then when it doesn't work, ask what happened and whether anything could have been done to prevent it. What happened was that 3 different relievers we had no reason not to depend on going into the season completely regressed and became worthless. That is *not* something Theo could have planned for, and having the depth to absorb 3 tank jobs like that isn't something any bullpen's likely to have. You might have gotten some mileage out of replacing one of them with a quality setup man, but playing catch up with 2 very good teams and already 5-6 games back, Theo made the judgment call that it wasn't going to be enough and the team didn't spend the assets it would need to try to force itself into contention, waiting instead for the blank slate that is the offseason. THAT is the decision you refuse to understand -- because you have no stomach for a bad season. THAT is what you want to blame Theo for. For making the decision to save his ammunition. The rest is just you trying to dignify your position by blaming him for the lesser things that led up to his decision. Combine the issue with the Pen with the unlikely injuries to Pedroia and Ellsbury which probably will not repeat next year, automatically making both our pitching and our offense better next year, and the mess at catcher, and I think it was the right call. The fact that we lost Youkilis almost immediately after he made the decision not to trade for Downs kinda ratifies it. It just wasn't going to work out this year, end of thought.