Dojji

I disagree. You're going to have about 10 left fielders that definitely outperform Nava in a given year, but that's not where "below average" starts for left field. You're forgetting that the league's offense declined over the last few years. It's harder to find that thunderbat left fielder than it used to be. From the standpoint of the stereotypical left fielder yes, Nava comes up short (literally). From the standpoint of cleats-on-the-grass reality, he's an average LF.

Guess. I've actually been very pleasantly impressed by Nava's ability to maintain a ~.800 OPS this year. That's not worldbeating corner OF, but if your leftfielder has an .800 OPS it's hard to say you have a hole in left. I've also been thrilled by Uehara's performance, and I look forward to getting Andrew Miller back whenever that might happen.

http://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm Players I'd like to see brought up include Bogaerts, Dan Butler and Jackie Bradley. maybe also another look at Webster For a flier, they might try calling up Mark Hamilton to take some time at 1B. He's been solid in P'Tuk and it wouldn't hurt to give him his chance at a big league cameo. Also give some thought to Garin Cecchini. He's hitting in Portland at a level that might be worth a callup, and he's got speed.

There's a lot more RHP's than LHP's. If Carp can kill RHP's, he's a decent candidate to get a long string of at bats at first.

It's mystifying. Even with other catchers and catching prospects hogging the limelight (Salty, Lavs, Vazquez, Swihart) you'd think he'd get some notice for hitting at the clip he's doing.

He is not. Jed Lowrie wishes he had the raw power Bogaerts has. That Lowrie can figure out his offense to this degree should give us all kinds of hope for Bogaerts.

... and people would do to remember that about Hernandez as well. It's an important point to bear in mind in the era of trial by media. If the Zimmerman trial taught us anything, it's that public sentiment is the absolute worst indicator of actual guilt or innocence in the world.

I'll note that he is merely charged. The burden of proof to charge someone is not high so I am withholding judgment.

Bingo. This whole closer v relief ace debate is a waste of everyone's time. You need both. If you only have one dependable pitcher, it doesn't matter one jot which one of those two necessary bullpen roles you neglect. The other one will kill you. If yoiu want to talk about using the closer for 5 or 6 out saves all the time, that's in direct defiance of the system established in the modern era, that calls that kind of workload 2 pitchers' worth of relief innings, or nearly so. Ask Alfredo Aceves what happens when you ask a reliever to do that many innings out of the pen in a given year. While you're at it, ask Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez -- we were convinced we were set up for a long time after those two young righthanders both proved capable of doing 70+ innings in 09 -- and we were very wrong. That system exists for a reason, both to maximize relief innings, and to minimize risk. And also because managers know that they can manage the personalities on the team if they handle the pen that way, which is a variable that one cannot exactly calculate into a spreadsheet, but is nonetheless highly important for relief in particular. If you want to make some oversimplified assumtpions and presume that you can dictate baseball to everyone who's spent the last 30 years actually playing it, feel free to be that arrogant I guess. But every time a team has tried the whole relief ace model and stuck a scrub in at closer, they've paid for it in blood, and every time someone's overextended their closer the way you describe, they've wound up with a new closer sooner than they wanted to -- so take that back to your drawing table and figure out how to work it into the equation.

Interesting concept, except for one thing. Both teams know what Bogaerts is and have little reason to move any of the principals involved. Put the two facts together and you have two teams both with every incentive to demand Bogaerts be thrown into any deal before they move their young stars. Even if the demand wouldn't be reasonable or this price is "fair" you're blundering into a seller's market and you can expect to be taken for all you have. That's probably the single biggest reason teams don't do deals like this.

Because prospects always fill their potential immediately? Because shortstops on that caliber grow on trees? Because this team's FO and fanbase are well known for their patience and ability to wait a year for results? Because there's no way to crowd both Bogaerts and Drew into the lineup given the one man wrecking crew that is Will Middlebrooks? Look -- I get the love for Bogaerts. I do. But at this point the absolute most big league experience he could possibly get is a little over a month, and that mostly against diluted competition. Meanwhile we have a fully established high level professional on the roster already. I surrender that advantage only grudgingly, after everything I can think of to hold onto it. Drew's usually going to hit the DL a couple times in a given year. There will be plenty of chances for Bogaerts to strut his stuff, and if he's clearly better, then you can trade Drew. That strikes me as a great deal saner than just closing our eyes and wishing real hard that Bogaerts doesn't have any growing pains.

I'm sure that's true, but if he's looking to build his value and then go to the open market to get an extension, why not be the team to give him one? Especially with the advantage of that exclusive negotiating window. We're a team that's very capable of rewarding a quality player properly, and Drew knows that. I doubt he'd turn down a contract from Boston just because, and he's the sort of player that's worth matching a the market for. I'm happy with his performance, so are most of us. Keep him around. There will be plenty of opportunities to work Bogaerts in around him, especially if Middlebrooks continues to scuffle. There's no reason to lean exclusively on Bogaerts to be our starting SS next year sight unseen, when a professional high level shortstop is right there to be had. The best prospect development is the kind that forces the youngster to beat an established average or better professional. Drew is a fine benchmark to measure Bogaerts against, and if Bogaerts beats him fair and square? you can dangle Drew for a good return on the open market. I'm sure you'll find someone desperate to upgrade at short, it's a really hard position to find solid talent for (all the more reason to hold onto Drew). I'd have no problem giving Drew 3/45. For a shortstop who's above average on both sides of the ball, that's a good value. He might get more than that, but I'd have no problem starting there.

This is Dan Butler's first full year at AAA. He played 22 games there last year. If that's "repeating a level" then a lot of prospects that made good repeated a level or two. Actually thanks for making me look that up and confirm it. I was under the impression that he WAS coming off a full prior season in AAA. The fact that he isn't makes this all the more interesting. I'm not trying to say this kid is the next Johnny Bench, but there's some reasons to be interested in this guy and we've heard nothing. Really kind of hoping he gets into a game or two this September, just to get some idea of what we have there. Most likely a decent backup, but he wouldn't be the first catching prospect to break out in his late 20's -- not by a longshot.

I'd be game to give Drew another 3 years right here in Boston. He's good at what he does. I don't throw away players who are good at what they do because of a prospect, especially if that prospect can play another position that's a known sore spot. If Bogaerts beats out a very good major league shortstop for the SS job, and 3B is somehow fixed, Drew's still good and everyone knows it, some team anxious about their own issues at short will make a deal for him. And since Drew's good for some downtime, Bogaerts ought to be able to showcase his stuff at short a few times next year even if #7 is here. There's very little to lose by extending Stephen Drew.

That's not a good excuse with catchers. If he was a shortstop the age thing might be an issue, but it's a known fact that catchers take longer to mature. What age was Tek when he started really performing? How well did Salty do between ages 21 and 25? Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. 26 isn't old for a catcher. Thing is with Butler, he doesn't need to do everything he's showing he can do now to stick in the bigs at some point. While the above average bat might be a mirage he's also shown above average defense. That and an average, or even a below average, bat would play in the big leagues. And what happens if the above avearge bat is NOT a miarge? This kid could start for someone. This guy should be someone's backup catcher right now. He's really been overshadowed by 3 different catchers in our system (Lavs, Salty, and to a lesser extent Vazquez with his impressive Spring) but he's probably big league ready or close to it. He's the catching version of Daniel Nava -- older, yes, but give him a chance and he might surprise you yet.

Nothing to lose. And our last Cuban was really, really awesome for us (Iglesias) so why not? We have Carp in the wings in case it falls flat, and he's a good young hitter with some promise of his own, and we have some CIF talent in the minors, so it's not like we'd be leaving the next empty if it failed. It's a great time to take a risk. 100% open to the option of giving Jose Abreu a big league contract.

No offense, but I'd rather not top a 50 page thread every time someone has a new thought about any given topic.

I hate megathreading. Megathreading sucks.

I do not. Cano is a better comp for Garin Cecchini TBPH. Cano's all contact and line drive power, the home runs he hits are something that happens to line drive hitters sometimes as they mature (see Youkilis, Kevin). Bogaerts has middle of the order potential from the beginning. Cano is very good at what he does, but he had to enter his prime before he was a real middle of the order bat. It's a different offensive approach and I expect the results to be different as well. Maybe Bogaerts doesn't mature as well as Cano did. Maybe he becomes the next Giancarlo Stanton, only a shortstop. Which would be obscenely awesome. But it's a different kind of hitter, you can't use Cano to predict Bogaerts at all.

The drop in velo was an attempt to salvage his declining command. Lots of pitchers try resorting to that if they can't get it over the plate any other way.

Normally I don't like the idea of signing guys over 30, but I'd go 4 years with Choo and not blink. His skillset strikes me as the kind that should age reasonably well. I actually suspect that Choo will take a short years deal if the money is right, to set himself up for one last contract at the age of 33 or 34 when it's clear he still has some life left in him.

That's a reasonable position to take. Just pointing out that Breslow is by no means a flash in the pan. (Heh. Flash in the pan. Who would have thought a term referring to matchlock muskets would still be so popular 400 years after everyone but a few central Asian tribes stopped bothering with them)

BBR Soxprospects How exactly is it that we have a catcher in AAA, 26 years old, hitting to an .850 OPS, as near as I can tell his defense is solid or better in all aspects, even has the kind of strikeout to walk ratio and OBP strength the team likes in a catcher -- and no one's heard of the guy? The only reason I looked this kid up is that I didn't want to let my manlove for Christian Vazquez' arm blind me to other backup catching options so I did a little groundwork to see what else we had in other obvious potential backup catcher positions -- and there's the starting catcher for the Pawtucket Red Sox hitting like a champ and no one said a word to me about him. All the numbers I have access to tell me that this kid could backup or even platoon for a big league team right now, heck there's a few teams he'd be starting for. Would probably be up with us if our catching options weren't already so crowded, and yet he's getting no attention -- at all. Am I overreacting? Maybe a little. But this might be a hidden gem, and you know how I can be about them. What's the thought of some of the rest of the forum on this guy? How many had even heard of him?

Not Giancarlo Stanton. I've said this before, but I'd be all for making a buy-low move on Billy Butler this offseason. The man's offensive style is made to order for Fenway Park, and it'd rebalance the lineup in favor of righthanded power. He'd have to get back into the swing of playing first base, and after 3-4 years of playing entirely DH that's a tall order, but if he could settle in there we'd have that position covered by a young and good righthanded hitter signed for several years at below market prices. With Carp to back that up and come in defensively that looks like an idea that could work for us -- if we could pay what KC would ask for Butler. First base is the only real problem I see for us going forward. Our outfield situation is fairly stable, and outfielders aren't that hard to find. Third base is a temporary problem -- one of Cecchini and Middlebrooks ought to get something done there in the next 24 months (my money, by the way, is on Cecchini). Shortstop is a non-problem even with Iglesias gone. Catcher is handled between Salty, Lavs, and some nice backup caliber prospects. (I'd back up a winning team with either Dan Butler or Christian Vazquez and think nothing of it). Overall, I would look to extend Stephen Drew for another 3 years. Good quality shortstops are hard to find, even with the sexy sexy sexy prospect in the wings having that veteran cover man is valuable -- and if Bogaerts breaks through early Drew has value on the trade market. Napoli I let go. I don't qualify him for fear he'll accept. But I only do it that way if I'm sure I have a deal in place for another 1B such as Butler. Otherwise Napoli and Carp next year, with an emphasis on grooming Carp longer term. I can get on board with the idea of Choo, and we don't have to lose Ellsbury to make a Choo signing work for us. Ditching Gomes or Nava, moving the other to a bench role, and starting Choo in left would still be a good move. Working Bradley around that would be a nice problem to have.

Not sure why you think Breslow is a bad bet to repeat his numbers. Look at his career. He's got a 2.90 ERA in 8 seasons of major league relief. The outlier is this year's K rate, not his ERA or ability to perform in high leverage innings. He's usually up in the 8k/9 range. If anything, the fact that he can get outs Mike Timlin* style even when he's not fooling hitters as much as he usually does is outright impressive. *Plenty of evidence all by himself that no, you don't need a high K rate to be an effective late inning guy.