jacksonianmarch

Lester said he'd give a discount to stay in Boston. Typically, a discount does not involve years, but AAV. So, if you get Lester at a discounted rate, you're still gonna have to give him the years. My guess is he'll sign for no less than five and as many as seven years

I am a little bored. Its always boring when baseball season isn't in play, especially after the SB. Regardless, I still wonder why this hasn't been done. Pal, you have a good point about waiting to see what shape he is in, but I am still surprised nothing has been done yet. He made those comments months ago. If the season starts and he isn't under contract, he's gone

And another thing. If the sox let him hit FA, he's gone. Part of a discount is a team assuming some risk while guaranteeing a player some security. One more season in, Lester will pull that offer. I guarantee it

I wonder what is taking this issue so long to resolve. Then, my contrarian side came about and asked the question, maybe the sox don't want to re-sign Jon Lester? It sounds like a foolish proposition, but then I actually thought about it some more. What is the driving force for Lester to be re-signed now instead of allowing his contract to play out. Well, unequivocally, it is the fact that he was the balls in the playoffs in 2013. Well, strip away the tournament, and you have a guy who, even at a "discount" is expected to be paid for something that he isn't. Let's look at Jon Lester. From 2008-2010, he was an unquestioned ace. 622IP with a WAR of 16.6. During that time, his average FB was a full mph higher than it is now. From 2011-2013, he has been good, but not ace-like. 610IP 7.5WAR. And now, we come to 2013, his so-called return to greatness year after his down 2012. Well, when you tear apart the numbers, the two seasons aren't that much different. Yes, his WAR was much higher in 2013, but it was still the second lowest of his career to 2012. Go based on his xFIP and you can see a player who was actually a little worse than 2012. Strange indeed. Nobody is going to question the fact that Jon Lester is a front of the rotation starter, but IMO, he has been pitching like a #2 the past 3 seasons, when he was a #1 for the 3 before that. So fast forward to the contrarian argument. Lester just turned 30, meaning his first season of a new contract will be in his year 31 season. Everybody seems to use the Cliff Lee contract as a jumping point for Lester, and it has its valid points, but Lee turned 33 in the first yr of his 5 yr contract. Now, Lee had been more productive the three seasons prior to his contract yr compared to Lester has been his last 3, but consider that the cost of inflation. And if Lester gets placed under contract to a similar age, you are looking at a 7yr $175 mil deal. CC also inked a similar contract extension when he was close to opting out that would guarantee him $122 mil over 5 yrs before his age 32 season. So a market value Jon Lester deal is somewhere in the 6 yr $150 mil range. Let's say Lester wants to give the sox a discount. Well, discounts usually are on AAV, not years. Let's say his discount is $20 mil. Would you sign Lester for 6 yrs and $130 mil? That is probably the question the sox are asking themselves right now. Is it worth it to commit to Jon Lester for years 31-36 at $22 mil a season, or have they already gotten his best years out of him and would they be better off getting a pick and bringing up a kid? It's an interesting dilemma, and one that makes me ever more curious the longer we go without Lester inking an extension

Even with the bandage, though, I am sure they could put something on his hand that can simulate the weight of the glove to get his arm stretched out.

Jake Peavy cut his non pitching hand yet they say he may require a DL stint? That's interesting. Fit a custom glove over the hand and pitch simulated games to build the arm strength. I find this very strange

We could use Drew, but he isn't all he's cracked up to be. He had a solid, albeit unspectacular season last yr and he wants to be paid like a star. I'd do a 1 yr deal with a second year option and that's about it. Boras read the market wrong on this one. The QO's are limiting a lot of players who aren't elite

Sounds like we're shopping a catcher for an infielder or reliever. Potential targets are Keppinger or Beckham

Carlos Santana and Buster Posey were lost in recent years due to collisions. Nobody would give a s*** if Jose lobaton or Francisco Cervelli got injured. But both those guys are the center of their offense.

I honestly think Cashman is leaning a little too hard on the Yankees minor league system in terms of the pen. Would have loved to see an under the radar 1 yr signing of someone who is healthy, but so be it. There is a TON of talent in the pen in SWB and in NY, but no track record. You're gonna see Robertson closing with probably Thornton and Betances setting up. Claiborne will be in there somewhere. Who knows the rest, but they've all got good, strong arms. It remains to be seen if they can do it on the fly

They are saying he is in the mix for 5th starter. He is throwing full bore and apparently has his velo back. That being said, we hear these stories every spring and then the spring games come on and it's all spin and ********. I reserve judgement until I start seeing Pineda hitting mid 90s again

When it comes to the pen, yes we are. Hanrahan should be ready come mid year, so he makes the most sense. Bailey isn't likely to contribute at all, with a projected timetable of September. They got him for the 2015 option

Not sure what you're talking about, although I find it interesting how you've gone on the offensive since you were called a Yankee fan. Trying to save face?

Cano cost $90 million more. They're not equal cost

He blew out his shoulder. I would assume that you'd understand how that changes the game a little, but assuming might be an issue with this audience.

Even at .750, he's an upgrade

It's a ridiculous point. I've never said anything about Pineda winning a CY. I'd be happy if he actually found the mound in a Yankee uniform. I am cautiously optimistic about him. But I am not counting on him

Feel free to actually dispute anything I have posted

Definitely not 8 times better. But our offense shouldn't be completely pathetic. I expect us to put up a top 5 offense in 2014, which will significantly improve our win loss record

where is that? I am just happy Pineda is throwing with velocity. I don't even think he breaks camp with the Yankees

They blew it by not offering another 10 yr contract? You're hilarious, lol, and insufferably ignorant. We won 86 games last yr without half our team. 7 of our positions in the lineup were in the bottom 5 in OPS in baseball (DH, C, 1B, SS, 3B, LF, RF). So now we add 2B to that list. 8 of the positions in the lineup with Cano gone would be useless. Let's see who fills those spots. C- Brian McCann- He had an .800OPS last yr. Move him to YS and he'll be higher. That .800 is 216 point higher than last yr 1B- Teixeira- he is good for around an .800OPS on a yearly basis. That's over 100 points higher than we had last yr SS- Jeter is at least good for a .700OPS. That is 102 points higher than last yr 3B- Kelly Johnson had a .714OPS last yr. That's 80 points higher than last yr LF- Gardner moves there. He's good for a .750 or so OPS. That's 170 points higher than last yr CF- Ellsbury moves there and gives us a slight bump, maybe 50 points or so in OPS RF- Beltran moves there. He's had an .830 or higher OPS the last 3 seasons. That's 180 points higher than last yr DH- Soriano has hit 30HR and 100RBI the last 2 seasons. He's good for a .750OPS. That's 170 points higher than last yr. So yes, we lost Cano, but we also should be healthy and had increased the offense dramatically at most positions. The only drop off is Cano. Get that through your head

Bogaerts has hit .300 or higher exactly once in the minors over a full season since he came stateside in 2011. 2011- .260 2012- .307 2013- .297 Just wanted to give you some facts. BTW, if Bogaerts somehow hits .300 in his age 21 season, then you should line up a spot on the wall for his number to be retired. The kid can play, but let's hold off on predicting an all-star rookie campaign until you actually see how he starts the yr. And let's also remember that some high level prospects do not live up to expectations. Where is the 20 time all-star in waiting now? Dojji, can you help me with this? I think the kid plays well, but the likelihood that he's a .300 hitter is insanely low.

We do have the young talent in the OF that should be ready come 2015. Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Tyler Austin, and Ramon Flores will all be at AA or higher this yr. One of them would be ready. But this was a value signing. He has a solid OBP and turns walks into doubles rather well with his speed. He plays elite defense in LF and can play a good CF as well. You let him get to the open market after 2014 and you run the risk that his value skyrockets due to a solid season. Let's say he hits .290/.370/.430 with 50 steals and elite D, and all of a sudden, you're talking about a guy getting $15-$18 mil a yr for 5 yrs. What I also like is that it is a tradeable deal. Lets say Mason Williams blossoms in 2014 and starts in RF in 2015 and knocks the cover off the ball. Well, we could move Gardner and bring up one of the other kids at that point or sign another premier FA and move Gardy for some other need. He's been a full time starter for 4 yrs now. He missed most of 2012 due to a wrist issue. But in the 3 seasons he played full time, he's racked up 14.9WAR.

and Bourne got 4 yrs $48 mil. Not too shabby

Your backup catcher got hurt? You're going with that? Oh and Hanrahan and Bailey go down, so your third option to close POSTS THE BEST SEASON EVER FOR A RELIEVER. So, you consider that a bad thing? Drew sucked for two months, yet still posted a 3 WAR season. WMB was demoted and in his stead, Iglesias hit over .300. Really, cry me a f***ing river. You're season was downright ridiculous. It won't happen again