jacksonianmarch

Yeah, and if the elbow was the issue, I would probably do it. Shoulder's are tricky. A shoulder injury that then robs a player of their velocity is an enormous red flag.

Betts doesn't want to sign. He has already made life altering money. He doesn't need to give away his bargaining power.

I agree with you. Had Sale finished 2018 healthy, then yeah, you do it. But he had a mystery shoulder injury that sapped his velocity and he never recovered going into the offseason. That's an enormous red flag, enough to not sign him to an extension. You play out the year and if he plays well, then reward him. You don't take a risk when it's a pitcher's shoulder and when he returns, he looks like a shell of himself

JD has proven frail in his career and this year some back issues crept in. Putting him in a spot where he will need to be nimble AND be in a crouch for every pitch isn't going to be his friend. If you want to win, you park JD on the bench when your team is pitching and just sit back and watch the magic when he swings the bat

If Henry really gives the reigns to Bloom, I would assume he is going to try and maximize return for expensive or short term assets. JD and Mookie would be high on that list. JD will be more complicated as he's getting potentially above-market value and he can shift his NTC to the 3 most likely teams to deal for him. Mookie is the guy who would return the most provided the team acquiring him is fine with giving away talent and paying $30 mil for a one year rental. Mookie might be the kind of asset Bloom is willing to ship cash with the absolutely maximize his return. Heck, could you imagine the return if he dealt with TB and offered to eat half the contract?

Moon, if the sox get below the LT, then Betts' comp pick would be after the first round

I don't think Urshela turns out to be a .300+ hitter. Maybe he found his HR stroke and ends up a .270 20 guy, maybe he ends up a total flop. But Andujar is there too if Urshela falls off the map and Miggy is a real hitter capable of hitting .300 and driving 30 bombs out of the park. I like Tauchman a lot. Remember, he was an exit velocity find with a good eye. His defense is great. His baserunning is great. I actually wonder if he only scratched the surface with us. Lefties in YS tend to find their ceilings as long as they can stay healthy Lemahieu actually isn't very far off his baseline at all, outside of power. Switching to YS and the short porch for a guy who goes oppo is only guaranteed to increase HR totals. His career BABIP is .344 and in 2019 it was .349. He's hit .300+ 4 of the last 5 seasons. He just hasn't hit this many homers, which is likely a combo of home field and the Manfred Missile. That being said, yes, I think Lemahieu can repeat 2019. Who knows with Gardner. I have written him off before only to have him return with authority. I do not think he smokes 28 HRs again. I am not keen on signing him to be a starter. I am entirely fine with Tauchman, Frazier and Judge in the OF with Stanton at DH until Hicks returns. I think we can better allocate our funds. I think the questions you should also be asking include the following Will Judge miss 2 months? Will Sanchez miss a month or more? Will Stanton miss an entire season? Will Andujar miss an entire season? Will Voit have effectively a season ending injury at mid season again? You're talking about our 2-6 batters in the lineup from our 2018 run. Our 2-6 hitters on opening day. Those 5 guys missed 18 months of baseball. That isn't going to happen again, so the guys who were pressed into regular duty in their stead aren't going to be needed as much

I don't assume the lead would have been 34 games at all. Maybe it would have been 23 or 24? Who knows. Maybe we would have clinched ever earlier and coasted. Who knows. What I do know is that our backups essentially ended your AL East hopes in early August

Has nothing to do with rose colored glasses. Has everything to do with reality. We had the deepest team in baseball last year. We weren't the best team in baseball, but definitely the deepest. Even losing Didi, Gardner, and Maybin, we still have multiple contingencies at every spot and at least 6 starting pitchers who are set to be healthy for spring training, all with varying degrees of success at the big league level (Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Montgomery, Happ, German). I would venture to say losing 190 innings from Severino is exactly the reason why our pen was worked as hard as it was, especially in a year where Montgomery was down with TJS. Having stability and getting length from the rotation will help. None of the pitchers returning have an active injury. They all finished the year healthy (except Paxton with sciatica, but that shouldn't be a long lasting issue). They all showed good stuff through September, even Happ who was throwing smoke in the POs. Provided good fortune in ST (never guaranteed) the returning rotation should alleviate some of the strain that the pen games put on our relievers. I am not naïve to the possibility that Tanaka or Paxton spend time on the IL next year, as a matter of fact, I expect it. But I also don't expect this rotation to be the one that enters ST. I anticipate a pitching addition of some degree. Maybe it is via trade and we package some of our depth together and snag a guy like Minor? Maybe we shoot higher and snag Bauer or Castillo from Cincy. Maybe we dip into the FA market and get Stras, Cole, Wheeler, Odorizzi or MadBum. We have options. And we really only have one unmoveable contract in Ellsbury. Even Stanton's is moveable in the right deal. So everything can be on the table for us. We also don't have a mandate to stay below anything. Maybe the Yanks blow past all levels in 2020 and go for broke? Who the heck knows. What I do know is the sox have already sent out a guideline to get under the LT. This means jettisoning more talent from an 84 win team. This means leaving a hole in your rotation, more holes in your pen, and a hole at 2B. If JBJ goes, then a hole in CF. Lots of holes with no money to patch it up and no prospects or dealable depth of circumstance to make a splash. You've reached the hope and the prayer stage of the offseason. It worked in 2013, so there is a precedent for it, but you're stuck right now. And you're stuck because Dealin Dave saddled your squad with $77 mil AAV for at least the next 3 seasons in arms that aren't healthy and aren't producing like their prime days. You are paying for the past. Those arms are almost entirely unmoveable without some kicker and right now their stock is as low as it can go. So yes, I am fairly confident in the pinstripers. I am confident that our rotation will be better. I am confident that our pen will be better with less of a workload. I am confident that our position players wont see the same level of injuries that they did last year.

I think we can assume a healthy severino would have won his fair share with our offense. He won 19 last year with a worse offense.

And having 19 innings of severino means nothing? You got more innings out of your aces than we got out of ours. Also, counting on Eovaldi to be healthy is stupid. He’s never healthy

I thinks it pre-ordained that the Sox pitching staff will struggle. Now ours isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire at the moment, but our pen is deep and pretty much entirely returning (minus Betances’ 0.2IP). I don’t say that because I think they’re horrible pitchers. I say that because Sale has a shoulder issue that’s clearly chronic and sapped him of his power. This left him almost entirely destroyable against us. As a matter of fact, anytime the Sox could kick us while we were down in a series, Sale’s turn came up and he couldn’t get us out. Now he has an elbow injury that’s clearly more serious than they let on, one that was treated with PRP instead of surgery and one that hasn’t even cleared the healing process. There’s a good chance Sale needs TJS. There’s also a good chance he returns in 2020 with even further diminished velocity due to the PRP repair process. Sale also has missed the final months of the regular season two years in a row. His body type and mechanics scream injury, as many have said on her a lot, and now it’s here, the first year of a brand new contract handed out by DD. Then there’s David “special elbow” Price. David’s special elbow has forced him to the IL three years in a row. His velocity has been falling as expected due to his age and now he’s got this wrist issue in his throwing arm. Price has missed considerable time two of the last three seasons and he enters this one coming off surgery and poor performance. Price has a lot of miles on his treads and his arm is finally showing the wear and tear. In order to keep up with the Yanks and the deep Rays, you need the above two to find their vintage form. Their injuries of late and their sapped arsenal make that impossible. This is why I’m so certain of the outcome this year barring the Sox sneaking Gerrit Cole in under their Christmas tree.

What happened between 18 and 19 was your team got worse then got hurt. Your competitors got better

If they’re re-signed after a declined QO, it’s usually immediately after the declination

We were 19 games better than you and our team had injuries beyond any level seen before. Think about what would have happened if we were healthy? Also, we have zero injuries outside of Hicks that are expected to linger into 2020. You’ve got your twin ace lefties recovering from arm procedures and both of them showing significant declines in stuff. Your number 4 guy in Eovaldi couldn’t stay healthy once again and while he comes into the year healthy, he essentially had his zipper elbow opened during the year. And you’ve got zero contingencies

Well, that is the thing, everyone here sees 2018 and gets nostalgic. Well, in 2018 you had Kimbrel and Kelly. You had JBJ. You had a very good Porcello. You had a healthy Sale for 4 months. You had a healthy Price. You got one month of Eovaldi's ceiling during the playoffs. So much went right at the right time. Now, you're dealing with less talent in general and far more age related or injury related issues. Sale was otherworldly until August in 2018. He was pretty much unbeatable. Price was great all year with only a 2 week stint on the DL. Porcello was healthy all year. Yeah, Pom s*** the bed, but that is why you got Eovaldi and you wouldn't trade that. You got great production out of ERod. Your rotation was dominant. Your pen was led by Kimbrel and the guys upstream pitched better when they had a relief ace back there. You have lost a lot. You're gonna lose some more. And you're trying to keep up with teams that can add talent this year rather than subtract who were 20 games better than you in 2019? Your chances are small which is why Henry is choosing to cut costs. He can finish third under the LT or over. Under the LT resets the penalties for future seasons should he choose to spend more and that is more palatable

Here in lies the issue Meh, I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell that the Yanks go over the final threshold, nor should they. Granted, their first pick in the draft over the past 10 years had generally sucked (Judge was the second), so the penalty isn't that severe for a team that cannot hit on their first draft pick. They are right at the LT currently. That means we have $40 mil to play with before crossing the final line. Barring a trade, we will have room for probably a reserve OFer and one ace. That's about it

I don’t think ownership is as convinced as you are that they’re title level. I’m not either. Without major changes, I anticipate the Sox will be 3rd in the division at best. The health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi is paramount to your success and I just don’t think there’s a good likelihood of either of them staying healthy and performing to the level you’d need them to

Pete Abe is wrong. This wasn’t an option year. This was an opt out. JD’s contract is 5 yrs $110 mil, ie a $22 mil AAV. JD didn’t opt into anything, he declined to opt out of his 5 year contract

And he gets to change the list of 3 teams this week. My bet is he has changed that list to include the White Sox and Rangers. If he really wants to stay, knock out the chance he gets dealt to his 2 most likely suitors

Calhoun is likely to get somewhere in the $8-$10 mil range AAV on a 2-3 year deal. He isn't bad, he is just not worth the $14 mil option the Angels had on him, plus they are stacking cash to get Cole

If that’s what he’s looking for, though, then he is gonna go to FA and dealing him to get under the LT makes more sense

They were saying Betts is gonna shoot for Trout money. He doesn't have the body to be a good 12 year investment. He just doesn't

You can parse out stats if there is an injury, but hard to parse out slumps and hot streaks and try to paint anything more than the total season paints. What you're saying is that JBJ was an absolute team killer for 38 games then was good for the rest of the year. That doesn't constitute being a good player. He is what he is. A player with immense, Arctic level cold spells, then he rebounds and is good for the rest of the year. Well, he is a team killer during the cold spells

The Rays were dangerous because they had multiple versatile players on the squad and a B team that subbed in well vs lefties. They were deep as well which helped them handle their ridiculous injuries.