And how can you say Sale will be “fine”. He dropped 1.5 mph off his FB and gave up more than double his standard homer in rate.
Listen, there’s a comp here with Sabathia. CC started to see the HR rate tick up in 2012 from 0.6ish to 1. He had surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow that offseason and returned with a 1.5 mph drop in velocity. For a few seasons, he soldiered on with lower velocity putting up sparkling peripherals and being largely ineffective due to a massive HR rate. It wasn’t until he changed his approach and embraced the junk balling side of him that he started to outperform his declining peripherals. Sale’s peripherals are still awesome, but he is underperforming due to the rising HR rate. That will continue the longer he pitches like he still has his fastball. Also, you haven’t seen Sale post this elbow injury. He could have lost even more velocity (more likely he will actually). My bet is Sale, if healthy enough to pitch, will be a 5 inning pitcher going forward with an ERA in the 4’s yet still maintaining the high K rate and good walk rate. He will intermittently turn back the clock but mix in far more clunkers than Sox fans are used to