jacksonianmarch

No, I was never amped. I was saying that our first day draft to this point produced no duds. TO THIS POINT. Those older prospects are likely to never get past AA, I know that, but right now they are right on track for their ceilings. No derailment to this point.

Absolutely, we always do. -26 mil to talk to Igawa was a bad move, but the fact that it doesnt count against the cap is useful -Not outbidding you guys for Matsuzaka will bite us -I have said before that the offseason contained moves that have us take a half step back to take 2 steps forward. For 2007, there are a bunch of moves to criticize. Sheffield deal for 2007 is lopsided. RJ deal for 2007 is likely to be lopsided if RJ takes the hill and if Vizcaino is decided average. And if RJ takes the hill and we have an early pitching injury, our lack of depth at the major league level will be shown (like I said, we have MLB ready prospects who need at least 2 months) -relying on Pavano for a starting role is a gamble, a MAJOR gamble -Why did we draft Kennedy in the 1st round? I think he is a safe prospect, but I'd rather have a guy with higher upside (say Bard). -I would have taken Schmidt or Matsu over Pettitte, but not Zito. But we didnt lock into anything long term and stupid and we have created one hell of a farm system. I liked our offseason thus far.

then paint away! WOWZAH.

900K in 300IP

That is the point. I dont typically get too excited about kids straight out of HS. College kids, so long as they are more polished are okay to get a bit excited about, but they have to hit AA before I start pencilling them into future plans. But when you are talking about an 18 yr old kid who is that big, has three plus pitches, good control and power to boot, you cannot help but think about the possibilities. BTW, ETA right now is mid 2009. Ya know, I am excited about Chamberlain, optimistic about McCallister, nervous about Kennedy, but Betances ceiling is something I am real excited about. He trumps em all from that draft.

is that more because you are worried about big bad Betances and our killer farm, or because you are sick of my incessant badgering!

hahahahaha

pretty nice, Cincy decided to make right what the sox made wrong in that contract. I still find it sad that he signs for less to stay on the one team he loves and then gets moved without throwing one pitch of the new deal. I am glad he landed on his feet.

Yeah, he did. He became one hell of a pitcher under yankee instruction, though. Chances are, if he is as hard a worker as the scouts say he is, then he'd be just as good through college instruction. Think about it, 6'10" at 18 and still growing with control of a high 90s fastball, a plus plus curve and plus change. He is going to look a whole lot better than big ugly did in pinstripes, I'll tell you. He would dominate college like nobody else since Prior did. Here is his small sample short season #s. 7GS 0-1 W/L 23.1IP 14H 3ER 27K 7BB 1.16ERA 0.90WHIP that is against the best of the 06 college class. Nasty s***. And this was with less velocity and less height/weight than he has now.

what I find interesting is how much the yankees improved their minor leagues in one calendar yr. Trades- Sanchez- power pitcher with ace potential and huge frame- Would be a top 5 prospect Whelan- power reliever with closer potential and big time arm- would be a top 10 prospect Ohlendorf- sinker innings eater with solid repertoire- would be a top 15 prospect Gonzalez- defensive SS finally showing he has offensive potential- would be top 15-20 prospect Jackson- Power armed sinker pitcher with big frame- would be top 20 prospect Claggett- power armed reliever with closer potential- #13 in tigers org, would be top 20-30 in yankees org Then onto the actual list (pretrades)- Betances #3 - 8th round Montero #4 - top INTL signing Kennedy #6 - 1st round Chamberlain #11 - supp 1st round Melancon #13 - 9th round McCallister #18 - 3rd round then you also have Kontos, Norton, Hilligoss, and McCutchen making the top 50 later on. They had a very effective yr fixing a broken farm.

me too. I talked with one of the scout guys who said that he was listed last yr at 6'8 or 6'9 but many people didnt believe that he was that tall, most thought he was 6'7. But when asking the scout guys about it, they did say that he has since grown and very well could be at the height the article claims him to be. As for his mechanics, he is light yrs ahead of the typical tall man syndrome guys were at his age. Randy couldnt find control until he was in his late 20s. Daniel Cabrera still cannot find his control. Betances has found very good control thus far. His problem will be repeating the delivery over a full season. When you learn new mechanics, it isnt just a repeat and see how it does thing, you need to incorporate it into your very being so you forget your old ways. Lots of kids fall into that trap, learning something well then reverting after the winter off. Word is that he has maintained the mechanics as he has been constantly working this offseason rather than sitting on his ass or just working out like a lot of other prospects over the winter. As for his handling, the yankees will be very careful of him. They typically come up with some sort of minor "injury" at about 90-100IP in their first yr. Hughes had a "sore shoulder" but when you ask him about it, he says that he was fine, just typical shoulder tiredness when he was shut down with "shoulder tendonitis". The Yankees like slow progression. 90-100IP- first full season 140-150IP- second full yr 180-190IP- third full yr unlimited but cautious after that. Hughes is at the third step of the regimen. Betances will likely only see A/A+ work this yr with a max of 100IP.

btw, I was wrong with his age. He turns 19 in March.

I had heard he stated he would only sign with the yankees. But I just asked one of the scout guys and they said that is not the case, although he did let it be known that he wanted to go to NY, he never mandated it. His demands were in the 7 figures and most teams knew it. He had a commit to Vandy as well and said that he wouldnt sign for anything less than a mil. At the time he was topping out in the mid 90s but he was so damn inconsistent that he had days where his FB wasnt above 88. His curve was a plus pitch but his mechanics were so damn sloppy that he couldnt locate it. He was a project to many teams, so the yankees used their might to sign him. Turns out that he is a workaholic and took extremely well to their suggestions. His mechanics were fixed and he was consistently in the low 90s, hitting as high as 98 and his curve blossomed and he then learned the change. Now with added height and the all important 15-20 pounds of weight, he is something to behold. BTW, baseball prospectus is another good site for minor leaguers. They have a "best case scenario" part where most of the solid prospects are #1-#2 in projection. Betances' BCS was absolute monster.

Kid was a first round talent who commited to Vandy, standing at 6'7" and 215lbs. He told all MLB teams that the only team he would sign with was the yankees, and that he'd go to school otherwise. The yankees drafted him in the 8th round and gave him a 1mil signing bonus, well over slot. He came out as a 2 pitch pitcher, throwing a 88-90mph fastball and a loopy curve with pisspoor mechanics. Over the span of a few minor league months, Nardi Contreras fixed his mechanics to lower his BB rate and maximize his fastball. His fastball went from sitting in the high 80s to sitting around 93 with it going as high as 98 in 30+ short season innings. He also turned his curve from plus potential to second best in the entire minor league organization (only behind Hughes) and learned a changeup that quickly became a plus pitch (and one of the top 5 changeup in the organization). He was invited to ST to get a feel for what the majors is like before eventually being ticketed for A ball in Charleston. But that may change, he may be headed a bit higher. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/495574p-417572c.html The kid appears to have grown 3 inches and added 15 pounds of muscle to his frame. He now stands at 6'10" and 230lbs. He worked out incessantly this past offseason at a speed camp where his mechanics were further honed and he now throws 96 on average, at 19, from a 6'10" frame. Thing is, the kid may still be growing. Sounds like a freak of nature and should be fun to see in ST before he will get sent down.

now that is funny.

thank you my friend. 3/4 of that was from memory. I have a very good memory for numbers. Hence why business suits me well.

AAA Of the sox AAA prospects, the only one with any punch is Kottaras. He benefitted from being one of a select few who were actually useful in the minors in SD and came over in the Wells deal. He had a horrible 2006 season in AAA after having an okay start to it in AA. From what I've heard, he projects more as a backup catcher than as a starter, but he has experience with a knuckler and has proven he can handle AA. So we shall see, he very well could continue to develop the hitting skills needed at the next level to become an every day player. This yr will help with his development to see if he can develop the power everyone seems to be expecting. It seems he is ticketed to Boston as a Sept callup this yr and as a Vtek heir apparent in 2008, likely catching the knuckler is Wake is still around. Martinez is another intriguing guy to keep an eye on. A converted position player, he has a power repertoire that started to fall into place last yr. He is starting to harness his stuff and may make a debut this season. He is still not a very advanced prospect and projects to being useful MR one day. Maybe a MDC with a little less talent. AA The two best sox prospects are here. Everyone has heard of Ellsbury. The guy with a Johnny Damon projection. Has very good speed, but hasnt turned it into the kind of SB numbers you'd expect out of someone with world class speed. Not the kind of power projectability you would typically want out of an OFer, but he has the BA and the OBP skills to be a very good OFer and potential leadoff man. Buchholz, I think they are rushing a bit. If his fantastic repertoire is accurate, then he shouldnt have a problem in AA. But he still needs to perfect the repertoire a bit and having a pitcher essentially skip the FSL is not the way to do it. He is the best rated pitching prospect. After that in AA, the field is barren. Jackson continues to get hurt and his command went backwards. Lowrie and Natale I have seen be referred to as guys whose MLB hopes are slipping with every passing day. A+ I like this class of yours better than any other class in the system. Bowden is my favorite sox pitching prospect. Most polished, best arsenal, younger than Buchholz by 2 full yrs. He will be moved slowly as I feel the sox have him pegged as the next home grown star while they may be shopping Buchholz, who knows. Cox is a power arm with good stuff and has been bandied about in the majors league picture this yr. WIll move rapidly through the system and has high projection in the pen. Still needs some serious seasoning before he hits the bigs though. Masterson should not be this high in any system. He is a guy whose ultimate destination seems to be changing by the day. He was a starter in college, a reliever in the sox system and now is being converted back to starting. Interesting repertoire which needs a lot of work. As a sinker, slider guy could be a solid reliever, but in relief, his value will drop. Intriguing guy to keep an eye on though. A This is where the most promise lies. Bard has the stuff to be a major league CY candidate, but his location and repertoire need some serious work. Place is a young kid with power, which is not easy to find right out of HS. But his K rate and strike zone recognition need a ton of work. Johnson is the sox best lefty pitcher in the minors, but is coming off TJ surgery in 2005, so he should be handled lightly early on. Has a solid arsenal though. Egan is a solid power projection kind of guy, but his arrest on coke charges a yr and a half ago makes you wonder.

So I am checking out sox prospects and here is the list of their top 40 and where they will be starting in the minors this season (projected anyway). Boston MLB Pedroia #4 Pawtucket AAA Kottaras #8 Murphy #10 Martinez #13 Moss #14 Spann #15 Gabbard #27 Pauley #34 Smith #35 Portland AA Ellsbury #1 Buchholz #2 Jackson #18 Lowrie #21 Natale #32 Lancaster A+ Bowden#3 Cox #5 Masterson#7 Wagner #20 Soto #23 Rozier #28 Jones #31 Turner #37 Greenville A Bard #6 Place #9 Johnson #11 Egan #19 Kalish #24 Chiang #30 Esposito #33 Lowell A- short season #22 Clay GCL Sox Rookie ball Anderson #12 Beltre #39 Tejeda #40

Well, that isnt terribly true BSN. Most teams have some sort of idea going into a season who will be in the important roles, namely closer and SU man. NYY- Rivera, Proctor/Farns TOR- Ryan, League BAL- Ray, Baez TB- they suck CWS- Jenks, McDougal DET- Zumaya, Jones CLE- Borowski, Hernandez MIN- Nathan, Rincon KC- Dotel, Riske OAK- Street, Duchsherer ANA- KRod, Shields TEX- Gagne, Otsuka SEA- Putz, ??? (idiots dealt away Soriano). ATL- Wickman, Gonzalez, Soriano PHI- Gordon, Geary NYM- Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman FLA- ????????? WAS- Cordero, Rauch STL- Isringhausen, Wainwright CHI- Dempster, Howry HOU- Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler PIT- Torres, Capps MIL- Cordero, Turnbow? SF- Benitez, Correia SD- Hoffman, Linebrink, Meredith LA- Saito, Broxton COL- Fuentes, ??? ARI- Julio, Medders You look at the above list and really the only two teams without a closer right now are FLA and TB. FLA actually had a heavily relied upon reliever take the bump and put up a solid ERA. Every single team with a name listed had at least one BP guy who they turned to whose ERA was 3.5 or below, many of the above teams had 2. Most BP have a very good clue about what they are going to do about their bullpen. Sometimes it doesnt work out and sometimes you get surprised by what you find. But most every team has a framework in place by now.

you have made my day!

Riverside, the lineup from last yr vs the lineup from 2003 were so far apart that even the moves made wont span that gap. In 2003= .286/.360/.491 for a .851 team OPS and scored 961 runs which was first in the league by nearly 60 runs In 2006= .269/.351/.435 for a .786 team OPS and scored 820 runs which was ninth in the league, 110 runs below NY and 141 from their 2003 total. That is a serious gap. Now Drew, if he ever plays, will be a guy to try and span that gap. Lugo will not bring up team OPS as he isnt much of a power guy. They are nice additions to make a stronger lineup, but the bottom three is still a black hole. Varitek looked worse than Bernie Williams last yr at the plate, and I never thought I saw a slower bat in 06. Crisp may finally be healthy, but he was supposedly healthy a few months after the injury and the stats still didnt get better. He declined every month until September, when he had a pretty good month in a small AB size before shutting it down. And as far as Pedroia, he has the minor league numbers, but many scouting services hate him. I have heard good things like a scrappy player with a good eye and a solid ability to get the bat on the ball. To "David Eckstein without the talent". His late season experiment was a bad disaster, but it got him over the jitters. He is just as likely to hit .280-.290 as he is to hit .210. If your 7 or 8 spot were a little more solid then flinging a hope and a prayer on a scrappy kid with no real plus tools is something you can do. But if Vtek continues the downward spiral, if Coco proves that he just cannot handle it in beantown and Pedroia goes into the tank, that 7-9 will be awful to watch. It will remind me of the days when Karim Garcia, Raul Mondesi and Enrique Wilson were in the lineup. That 7-9 was abysmal to watch.

alrighty then, sounds like the source sucks. Wouldnt put it past big schill though. He's always a little doughy.

I like Heyman sometimes, but I dont think he's right in this respect. Cashman is a very smart man. Pavano's contract is no longer the bear it used to be. And a certain Roger Clemens may be making the rounds come June or July. At the same time Hughes is said to be MLB ready right now, but could really use about 2 months of minor league time to really perfect his changeup (which is close to plus right now, and would give him 5 plus pitches- 4FB, 2FB, Curve, Slider, Change). All of that leaves a window of 2 months. Now as the team's 5th starter, he may be relegated to pen duty in April and may get something like 6 starts in May. That is the time we shop him. Right now, trying to deal Pavano is all about cash relief. In June, dealing Pavano may net us a few prospects and cash relief. Think about it. Pavano is 30-31yrs old and signed for 08 at 10 mil per (nothing outlandish). If he even pitches average, like mid 4's era, he would be highly sought after in the NL, especially from a team like the Cardinals who have playoff aspirations but lack pitching depth. Then you deal him, and slide either Hughes or Clemens into the rotation. But in ST? Remember Crunchy talking about contingency plans? You dont deal pitching without a contingency plan. The AAA kids need about 10 AAA starts before they get their rolls going. Clemens wont be coming until June 1 at the earliest and most likely by July 1 if he comes to NY at all. We need someone to span that window and a Pavano audition sounds like the best idea.