jacksonianmarch

Oh where to begin. First of all, you post as if there is a magical number at which time the player loses all their ability. Well, there isnt. Most players age gradually and have a slow decline. Others lose it all at once. I would be lying to you if I said that every one of the above mid 30 something guys would put up career norms. But at the same time, the older guys are on short deals so they are easily replaced. I have conceded the fact that we will be susceptible to the injury bug, and that is one thing that age does predispose you to. Second off, you are posting batting average, which is a rather meaningless stat. I like OPS and OBP. Third, Swisher and Cano had career lows at a young age, something I would like to think is an aberrancy. Fourth and final. You downplay Nady because he had .268 in the AL while he started off .330 in the NL. What gives? Hitters typically have less of an adjustment than pitchers do. How bout you point that out. Regardless, I have conceded that the offense will be susceptible to injury. That being said, infusing a healthy Matsui and Posada as well as a likely rebound of Swisher and Cano should see this team's offense go from a high 700s run scoring team to a mid 800s, even with the loss of the streaky Giambi and Abreu. He was rested for a 2 week stretch about 2 weeks after we got him because of elbow inflammation. After that time, he was lights out. Overall, his season #s were dynamite. So yes, I love the guy and think he will eat your lefties for lunch next yr. Lets break down that lineup, shall we? Just for those without the IQ to process logic? 1. Johnny Damon- .303/.375/.461 in 08. .286/.362/.448 over last 3 yrs. He had a solid yr last yr and over his yankee stay he has been very solid. He gets on base, he has improved his power and he still hits for a decent average. Yes, he is 35, but he is not showing any signs of worsening production. If he stays healthy, I would think he could put up a .290/.365/.450 season once again. 2. Derek Jeter- .300/.363/.408 in 08. .322/.390/.448 over last 3 yrs. Jeter finished the yr strong, but one thing that worries me is that even though he hit .322 to finish off the yr, the power never returned (IsoPatience of .100 throughout the yr). I dont doubt that he can get on base at a good clip and get base hits, I just think the yrs of being up there in doubles may be going away. I dont think .290/.355/.400 is out of the realm of possibility if he stays healthy 3. Alex Rodriguez- .302/.392/.573 in 08. .302/.403/.581 over last 3 yrs. He missed some time this past yr with a quad injury and did his usual every other yr performance dip. I expect another MVP caliber yr from ARod in 09. I dont think .310/.405/.610 is out of the question 4. Hideki Matsui- .294/.370/.424 in 08. .291/.372/.479 over last 3 yrs. Pre-All Star he was hitting .324/.404/.458 and then he was injured. He came back a shell of the player he was and eventually couldnt hobble around anymore on the knee. If he is healthy, I expect him to have a pretty standard Matsui yr, except the power started to dip prior to the injury and I think it might dip further. I dont think .300/.370/.450 is out of the question. 5. Jorge Posada- .268/.364/.411 in 08. .303/.396/.503 over past 3 yrs. We all know Posada was hurt from day 1 and his 08 stats are pretty useless. I also think we all know that his 07 stats were likely an aberration. What I dont think is an aberration is his ability to continue to hit for solid power out of the C position, if he can catch, and to continue to get on base. The offensive downgrade from Posada to Molina was crippling. I dont think .275/.380/.480 is out of the question assuming he plays everyday and can catch. If the labrum is still an issue, then i dont doubt his ability to get on base, but his power will suffer 6. Nick Swisher- .219/.332/.410 in 08. .246/.363/.454 over last 3 yrs. I have a hard time believing that this guy would continue to be this bad. For those who like sabermetrics, his LD% was high and his BABIP was low, meaning he was likely unlucky. A few things I love about Swisher. He led the league in P/PA, but 0.2, which is quite a margin. He also has routinely put up .11-.12 Isopatience and .19-.23 IsoPower, making his predictions pretty easy. Batting him low in the order, putting him in a lefty friendly park and surrounding him with players who get on base and drive in runs leads me to believe that he can get back to his .250 baseline in BA. I project him to be around... .250/.365/.450, and I dont think there is anyone who would say that that is totally unrealistic. 7. Xavier Nady- .305/.357/.510 in 08. .289/.343/.481 over last 3 yrs. People like to rag on his yankee stats, but what I find rather funny is that when we were still in it, Nady was the balls. He had a 1.040 and .874OPS in July and August. He sucked in September, but we were already out of it by then. He's 30, so he is in his prime and he has always proven to be a solid right handed power threat. He is not the .330 hitter he was in Pittsburgh. But he has now put up 3 consecutive seasons with rising OPS (.790-.806-.867) and 2 consecutive seasons of .300+ BA. I dont think he will repeat that in a full season of playoff baseball, but projecting a .800 OPS isnt out of the realm of possibility. .290/.340/.460 is below his last 2 yrs production, but is that a safe projection? Why not. 8. Robinson Cano- .271/.305/.410 in 08. .304/.340/.471 over last 3 yrs. Who knows what you are gonna get out of Robby. When he's on, he is a dangerous hitter. When he's off, he is an automatic groundball to 2b. He oozes talent and can play a good 2b, but he is so impatient it boggles the mind. That being said, .300 really seems like his baseline IMO. His career BA is .303. 2 of his 4 seasons he has been within 6 points of .300. And after his abysmal April, he hit .298. I dont think a projection of .300/.335/.440 is out of the realm of possibility, and hell, it is likely underestimating Cano's ability since a projection of .775OPS would be below his OPS attained in 3 of his first 4 yrs. 9. Mike Cameron- .243/.331/.477 in 08. .251/.339/.462 in last 3 yrs. Cameron has been remarkably consistent. Right around a .800OPS pretty much his entire career. I think he'd probably dip under that being in a lefty friendly park, but that being said a .240/.325/.470 line isnt out of the realm of possibility. Now take a look at the above lineup. If they all stay healthy, we should see all 9 players be above average. We should see one superstar with a 1.000+ OPS and 8 guys who should have OPS's near or above .800. How can you say that that lineup isnt that good? The sox essentially did the same thing when their team OPS was .805. I expect something similar and as long as they stay healthy, I dont think there are too many people who will object to that notion. The question is health and I do not disagree with anyone who says that health will or could or might be our downfall. I'd have no retort to that. But to say that the lineup in and of itself isnt any good is stupid when all 9 guys should enter ST healthy. Wow, got me. I just cannot retort those points. Wow. Yeah, buying players didnt do us any good. Tell Reggie Jackson and Catfish Hunter that. How about Babe Ruth, that guy did okay. And ask Roger how many rings he had and to what team he needed to go to so he could get them. The point is, having money is a major advantage for a team like the yankees. And the Red Sox used the recent Yankee model to buy their 2004 championship. Then they used the true yankee model of buying players at spots that their farm couldnt develop. That is what won them 2007 and that is why they are in a state of likely sustained success at this point. Regardless, the yankees just finished their first non playoff yr since 1994, which was the strike shortened yr and a yr in which we probably could have won the title. So whatever model they used was pretty good. Last offseason, we didnt buy anybody and we ended up in 3rd place. Does that mean that our model last offseason was no good and that we are righting the wrongs of yrs past and now should be back in the playoffs? You see, your logic is flawed. You are nothing but a bandwagon sox fan who cannot actually have a credible, intellectual conversation about the team's we love. You are the sox version of Gom.

The entire pen shouldered a ridiculous load last yr. Girardi did a good job of not burning out one specific guy. But the fact that our team's pen threw 70+ more innings than your should give you some insight into the ridiculousness that our rotation was last yr.

The numbers back up the assertion that the yankees had the better pen with a ridiculously higher workload. It therefore should be assumed that a lesser workload would lead to similar or increased effectiveness. And Masterson was good out of the pen last yr, nobody will deny that. I think it is difficult to say that he's closer material right now, though, when he struggled vs lefties.

2008 stats, yankees vs sox bullpens Yankees- 543IP (6th in MLB ) 3.78ERA (7th in MLB ) 477H 523K 213BB .235BAA(2nd lowest in MLB ) 1.27WHIP (4th in MLB ) 2.46K/BB (3rd in MLB ) 8.66K/9IP (2nd in MLB ) Red Sox- 479IP (24th in MLB ) 4.00ERA (11th in MLB ) 447H 418K 201BB .247BAA (9th in MLB ) 1.35WHIP (12th in MLB ) 2.08K/BB (12th in MLB ) 7.84K/9IP (7th in MLB ) I would say that the yankees pen had a significantly bigger workload and significantly outperformed the sox pen. And it wasnt even close. The yankees beat the sox so thoroughly that it's silly, to use your terms. And this is without a full yr from Marte, who is lights out when he's healthy.

we gotta get to october first dumbass. You cannot educate anyone. You're on adam's level of intelligence and once they canned him, you're alone at the bottom. Your brother got all the brains.

yes. I dont think his ceiling is any higher than this past season. He's 5'9 in heels. You really think he's got 25HR potential? In this day and age, do you think he has .340+ potential? I dont. I think this past yr is the ceiling on a guy like Pedroia. The question is, will he repeat it.

DiceK pitches backwards and I dont think thats a fluke. Thing is, eventually it will catch up to him. He cannot keep putting 6 guys on per 9 via free pass and get away with it.

A lot of denial here guys. Last yr I conceded prior to the yr that the yankees were not as good as the sox, and I was right. Last yr was a transition yr. This yr, though, the only thing that will stop us is the injury bug. Think about it. Lets say that pettitte signs and the brewers and yanks complete the Cameron deal. Take a look at this lineup. 1. Johnny Damon CF 2. Derek Jeter SS 3. Alex Rodriguez 3B 4. Hideki Matsui DH 5. Jorge Posada C 6. Nick Swisher 1B 7. Xavier Nady RF 8. Robinson Cano 2B 9. Mike Cameron CF The lineup has one superstar in ARod and the rest of the lineup is solid. Potential for 20 homers from every slot. Spots 9-3 have 20+ SB speed. Spots 1-6 all have the potential ofr a .370-.400+ OBP and Cameron is a top 10 P/PA guy. All 9 spots have players capable of having 80+ RBI. And, the lineup is very balanced. It isnt an all star lineup at every position and if the sox get Tex it wont match their production. But it is solid and reminds me a lot of the lineups we had during the WS runs. The only thing that will be of concern is health as it will be a pretty old lineup. The backups arent terrible but are a significant dropoff. The rotation would be dominant 1. C.C. Sabathia 2. Chien-Ming Wang 3. A.J. Burnett 4. Andy Pettitte 5. Joba Chamberlain show me a better rotation? CC, Wang and Pettitte would be near locks for 200IP so long as no freak accident occurs. Burnett, CC and Chamberlain are the power pitchers, and if healthy should put up huge K numbers if healthy. The contingency plans are solid as well and instead of our contingencies starting the yr in the rotation, they will start in AAA (Hughes, Aceves and Kennedy who is lights out in the DWL right now). And then, in the playoffs, you have to face a rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain and Wang. Unreal. The pen: Closer Rivera Setup Marte RP Veras RP Ramirez RP Coke RP Bruney with Robertson, Geise, Aceves, Sanchez, Melancon and Robertson fighting to round out the pen. Rivera is coming off his best season yet and Marte had a good finish with us after battling elbow issues. Bruney and Veras have lights out stuff. Ramirez proved he could miss bats and keep his WHIP low. Coke showed he could be dominant in limited time. The depth is solid as well. When you consider that this pen wont be burned out in theory if the rotation stays intact, then they should be even better than last yr. I think we caught up to, and if we have good health, surpassed the sox this offseason.

this guy sounds like a 5th starter in the NLW. He sounds like cannon fodder in the ALE.

Exactly. Soft tossing control pitcher who gives up bombs.

If we get Cameron and then convince Andy to come back, we'll be set. A well rounded offense that has a tough out at all slot in the lineup. A pitching staff with 3 horses (Pettitte, CC, Wang) capable of handling 200+IP yr in an yr out as well as 3 pitchers with lights out power stuff capable of being the best in the game when on (CC, Burnett, Joba). They'd have the young guns in the minors ready to take the spot starts as well. Then the pen will have the best in the business closing, coming off possibly his best season with a significantly improved middle relief and setup corps with another group of young kids on the way. This team just went from pitching starved to pitching deep in a week. This team just went from #3 in the league to projected champions. If this team can stay healthy, there is no limit to the accomplishments that this team could achieve. Imagine a playoff series starting with CC, Burnett and Joba with Wang as the 4? Insane

jealousy comes in all forms Crunch

He isnt technically on the open market. He let it be known that its NY or retirement. If he came out and let other teams know he was truly open to leaving NY then the offers would be coming a lot more than they are currently.

sounds like he has AS potential as a SS but has less of a chance to reach that potential. Sounds like he has #2-3 starter potential as a pitcher, but more of a chance of reaching the potential.

I think the offseason plan was to fill out the rotation with Joba as the 5 and Hughes in AAA. Sign CC, AJ, Pettitte, and after 2009, when Hughes actually progresses in AAA, move him to the bigs and make him the #5.

I will always call you an idiot. You are an idiot. Its like calling the sky blue or the grass green.

for me it is either or. You cannot add 2 guys with serious health questions. Because if both bow out, then we're left with 2005 all over again. We got the big horse. Now we need one other guy with a proven history of health and durability. If we can do that and have a 3 headed monster of CC, Wang, Lowe/Pettitte, then I am all about going for a risky pitcher like Sheets or Burnett. But both of them? Bad idea.

Burnett turned it on after the AS break. His post AS numbers were ridiculous. Also, adding CC and Burnett to Joba gives the yankees 3 power pitchers in their rotation, capable of striking out 8-9 guys per 9IP. We havent had that kind of power pitching in a long time.

Your comparisons suck once again. On the open market, Pettitte would easily get 10 mil. No questions asked. Big game pitcher with a history of winning wherever he goes and a serious history of durability. Doesnt hurt that he throws lefty. And your "mystery" pitcher is a guy who age wont affect and signed on to stay in Boston because he truly doesnt want to go anywhere else. On the open market, Wake gets 10 mil + as well. Regardless, a durable pitcher is a necessity in the 4 hole on this team. And if Pettitte truly is healthy then I hope it is him since he wants just a one yr deal. If his arm is still suspect, then I dont want him. Whether his velocity is 88 or 91 doesnt matter. He was throwing pus in the beginning of the yr as well. He, like Mussina, started to locate better and made up for the loss of velocity. Where Pettitte started to go downhill was when his arm injury didnt let him get the same movement on the cutter and the change. When the cutter doesnt cut or the changeup remains up, then you have 3 slow pitches hanging in the middle of the zone (if you count the FB that he couldnt keep down) and thats a recipe to get lit up.

A 6 man rotation never works. It has never worked and it will never work. These guys are drilled from day 1 that they will get 4 days rest and then throw. Dont mess with that. In order to limit these guys, I am all about skipping starts here and there or just limiting innings. If we are up by 4 and CC is cruising into the 7th, pull him. Why have him continue. If we are winning by a good margin, dont have CC complete the game. That type of stuff. AJ is the kind of guy I'd treat with kid gloves. 110 pitches max for him, and I'd like it if he didnt go past 100 too often.

That may be the case. Or they may be getting players that can actually perform for us. Going for Burnett is the risky move here, but if they have Wang, CC and another proven innings eater (Lowe or Pettitte) then they can afford to absorb the risk, because when AJ is on, nobody is better.

3 of the last 4 yrs he has put up a .800+OPS. He is still one of the best defensive CFers in the game today. He consistently hits around 20HR a yr and steals 15+ bases a yr. He also is one of the top 10 guys in the game in terms of pitches per PA. He K's WAY too much to be a top of the order hitter. But we are talking about him being our #9 hitter. Think about that. The #9 hitter sees 4.2 pitches per PA, can hit 20+ homers and steal a bunch of bases. That's ridiculous. And he's right handed, something that this team could use.

but it is easier to sell to the fans when it is obvious that you are willing to spend to make your team better. The problems in the past have been the albatross contracts that prevented us from getting other players. Now that some of the dead weight is gone, it is easier for the team to make a whole hearted effort to sign premier talent.

That would be an absolutely horrible idea. Lets pay CC 23 million a yr to pitch 27 times instead of 33. Lets do the same with Burnett, Pettitte and Wang? Thats an awful idea. When you have horses who can handle the load, you dont limit them. CC will take the bump every 5 days. So will Wang. If Lowe or Pettitte are here then they will too. The question is, can AJ and Joba? We know Joba wont. He'll be skipped a good amount seeing as he is the 5th starter so he can build his innings without going all Mark Prior on us. But I think we can keep AJ healthy if we steer clear from the 130 pitch games. Let him go 100-110 pitches when he's cruising and dont push it with him. We have the pen that can hold em. If we start getting 6+ innings a night out of the rotation, then we're set. The ALE would be ours