jacksonianmarch

You need a good defensive, veteran catcher if your goal is to build a staff. Young catchers and young staffs may build the catcher, but hinder the staff. I’d go the other way if I was Bloom. I’d deal Vazquez for the most value. I wouldn’t do a package, I’d legit go for 2 or 3 prospects, one top 100 in there. I’d sign a guy like Jeff Mathis who has awesome defensive chops and know how to handle a staff. That’s who I’d hitch my wagon to while growing young pitchers. I’d groom a young catcher to take over, but not for 2021

Very, very strange contract. 4 years $54 mil. First 3 years are 3-$39 mil. Final year is a $15 mil option with a $15 mil buyout. If the White Sox go the buyout route, Hendriks gets the $15 mil deferred in future payments. Never seen a contract where the only benefit to the option being exercised for the player is not the amount of money, but when they’d receive it

Piscotty is a good call. I think the A's would love to purge his contract.

Very true. You can actually improve from him easily enough. His whole allure is about promise, and as the years move along, the promise dips. His foot speed dropping from the 85th percentile to 43rd percentile over 3 years which will also limit his ceiling as it firmly plants him in a COF spot. I am wondering if Bloom thinks selling right now is not selling as low as Beni can go in 2021

Renfroe is a swing and miss, hit it a mile RHH outfielder. He has more potential, IMO, than Beni, but Beni has the higher likelihood of reaching it in 2021

His production hasnt been an issue. His health has been. We shall see if he can stay healthy with a full spring training and a "hopefully" fully vetted and prepared for start date. A lot of these guys got hurt due to the rapid progression of their ramp ups. But yes, he looks like a poor investment

I wonder if they’re shopping Beni for prospects to flip or to groom? If it’s to groom, then clearly the Sox aren’t going for it

Nobody was beating what Sugano got. 5 years, $40 mil with three opt outs? In the covid depressed American market? He leveraged America and got himself a great deal in Japan. How very American of him!

Yankees signed Brito, traded for Allen and just signed Chacin. All of these guys are garbage AAAA fodder. But with Cashman’s track record, would anyone be surprised if one of the three contributed positively in 2021?

Cohen came in and said this isn’t a money making venture, that he was a fan. He put his money where his mouth is. The division has been ruled the last two years by an awfully vulnerable braves team. The Phillies have been very suspect as well, playing below their capabilities. The Marlins played over their head last year. Washington stunk, surprisingly, but is likely heading back into contention, IMO. The Mets just staked their claim as the top team in that division

Gimenez is a good get. Rosario replaces Lindor for the forseeable future. They must have the pitching depth to absorb Carrasco's loss, although a lot of that might have been financial. More of the AL talent moving to the NL here further weakening a good team

Finalizing details now. Gimenez and Wolf listed as the initial return. I am sure there is more. This is a huge move for the Mets. Cohen isnt playing around

Very true statement

Montgomery outperformed Eovaldi by Fangraph’s WAR last year. He’s got the bigger career WAR. He’s younger. He’s my pick, clearly. We had Eovaldi. His maddening ways never left

Montgomery had one full season, blew out his elbow season 2, recovered season 3 and then had a pandemic shortened season for season 4.

Montgomery had a single injury (TJS) which took him a long time to recover from. And Montgomery has started 11 games and had one relief appearance in the past two years. Eovaldi has started 21 games and had 11 relief appearances the last two years. Guess who’s WAR is higher? And one guy had TJS in that time, lol. Eovaldi also has the longer track record of frustration. Montgomery had a really good rookie campaign, was killing it prior to TJS in his sophomore year. Third year was almost entirely wrecked by recovery. Fourth year was last year, and while his ERA was high, his secondary indicators were bullish. He threw four big innings in the post season. He should have a full spring and be fully healthy. He’s a limited upside back end starter akin to Odorizzi, IMO. But that’s fine with a deep pen and a deep lineup. Eovaldi is on a team with no pen and an above average lineup. And Eovaldi always has an injury derail a year, always. He’s had one 30+ start year. One 27 start year. No year after that with more than 21 starts. A Max WAR of 2.3 for a season. Montgomery’s lone full season would have been a career high WAR for Nate!

Sale is certainly not written off. But you’re talking about a guy with tons of miles on his tread who had a shoulder injury that sapped his velocity then blew out his elbow. You don’t have a reliable indicator of what he’ll be. Severino had that lat strain, came back hitting 100 in the POs in 2019 and then blew out his elbow. I’m pretty sure he should come back with his velocity intact. But as I’ve said for both, they’re not options til the ASB and likely aren’t going to be at their best til September. As far as the Sox offense, what am I underselling? Sox were 11th in baseball in runs scored per game last year. Now you’re losing Moreland from that equation and JBJ is a FA (he ended up having a good 2020 offensively). They’re a middle of the pack offense

Odorizzi is the perfect “swell-opt” guy. I’d offer him the $36 mil deal for 3 years. After year one, the Sox have to opt in to the next 2 seasons. If they decline, Odorizzi will have a 1 year $12 mil player option he can pick up

I don’t think so. The most important thing to consider right now is what you have. In the rotation, the only “healthy” starters are Houck and Eovaldi. Eovaldi can be counted on for one or two long DL stints and when he’s on the mound, his results will vary from terrible to good with the body of work trending towards terrible. Up until September, Houck was touted as a future reliever, which still may be accurate. ERod had a heart condition from covid 19. After the Florida basketball player nearly died on court after having covid over the summer, I wonder how much tighter they’re gonna be with him. Also, you have to wonder how much he may have deconditioned. This isn’t a guy with an arm injury who could still run, lift weights, do core, etc. He wasn’t even allowed to walk long distances. He’s a crap shoot who, IMO, is likely to start the year in extended spring to get his stamina up. Then you have Sale who is coming off March TJS and likely isn’t an option til the ASB. Adding Odorizzi as your only “healthy” addition this offseason doesn’t lend much hope to your chances in a pretty loaded ALE. On top of that, your pen stinks. Barnes is a setup guy at best. DHern is promising. The rest stink to high heaven. The best way to address the pen is to ensure you have one top reliever and a farm full of promising arms who can move there. You don’t have either. Kike Hernandez is more a Brock Holt than a solution at 2b. It doesn’t address your lack of a CF. I think you’ll need a lock down ace (Bauer), 2 more rotation additions, a closer, a setup man, a CFer, Kike and a 2b to be in contention. The roster is too light on talent to survive what will be a rough division with 3 returning playoff teams from 2020

Kluber offers the highest upside. Both are reclamation plays. Odorizzi at his best is a 5 inning pitcher who is effective. Kluber at his best is a multi CY award winner

On the value front, Kluber and Odorizzi would be short term players who could flame out entirely and be jettisoned after 21 or they could show value and be trade assets at a minimum. If I was Kluber or Odorizzi and I had the choice between NY and Boston, I’d choose boston due to the lack of rotation depth

While i think Odorizzi is the best bet to have a good 2021 from start to finish between Sale, Odorizzi and Kluber, it doesn’t help the health questions that’ll be out there as he had a terrible and injury filled 2020. That being said, a lot of pitchers had a terrible 2020 and none of Jake’s injuries should linger. Prior to 2020, he made 28 starts per season for 6 consecutive years. Odorizzi is an effective back end rotation pitcher who is pretty much a twice through the lineup guy and then get the pen warm. He’s averaged around 5IP per start for most of his career. His K rate has fluctuated from very good (10 per 9) down to below average (7’s per 9). He’s a fly ball pitcher, which may not be a great mix for Fenway and he gives up a ton of HR’s on average. The glass half full people will point to a sub 1 HR/9IP, 10+ K/9IP and sub 2 BB/9IP 2019 and see a pitcher who is breaking out. The glass half empty can see a guy who doesn’t go deep into games who would come to a team with a horrible pen and see a bad matchup. The one thing I can foresee for Odorizzi is a 1 year deal and the Sox can either use him for a surprise playoff run or really cash in on him if he shows he’s healthy at the deadline Bloom is all about value, and Odorizzi does look like a value play here who will be a cinch to get rotation time. Many teams would be looking at him as a 5th starter, and that’s a dicey situation should he have a rough start. In Boston, he’d be a 2 and would get a ton of chances to continue on if he starts slow

Agreed on Boone, although it sounds like the decision was Cashman’s. Or maybe Cash is taking the heat off Boone, either way, stupid. I usually don’t count out the Sox. I did before 2020 because all their pitching went down with literally no upper level, high end potential depth. Houck ended up making it up and looking solid, but the rest of the guys were castoffs. You knew they were gonna suck. For this year, the fact that Brad Hand was available for just money and the Sox didn’t jump also shows to me that they’re not going for a win. If the Sox are going for it, I don’t count them out. If they’re roster building still and not going for it, I will

Trust me, I want DJ and either Tanaka or a replacement for him. I think Higashioka has the defensive chops and enough pop to be a starting catcher and should supplant Gary due to his lack of defensive ability and disappearing offensive skills. That being said, we have replacements for every player lost and then some. Where’s the replacement for Brantley and Springer in HOU? Where’s the replacement for Verlander? The White Sox are a hot name, but they were free falling into the playoffs and made a rapid exit once in. As it stands right now, the Yanks can do the following C Sanchez/Higa 1B Voit/Ford 2B Urshela/Estrada/Wade (can also flip Torres here) SS Torres/Estrada/Wade if Torres is moved to 2b 3B Urshela/Andujar if Urshela flips to 2b LF Frazier/Tauchman CF Hicks/Tauchman RF Judge/Tauchman DH Stanton Any way you slice it, that’s a really good lineup with some redundancy at all positions. Should Sanchez recover his offensive value as he did from 18 to 19, then all the better SP1 Cole SP2 Montgomery SP3 German SP4 Garcia SP5 Schmidt/King/Nelson/Loaisiga In the wings, Severino by the ASB No question top notch ace. German was awesome in 19 before his DV ridiculousness. Montgomery is a solid rotation piece. Garcia was really good last year. The 5 slot would be a rotating issue until Severino comes back unless one of them finds their ceiling. It’s a rotation with promise and 3 proven big league talents, one of which is awesome. It could use another veteran for sure. The pen has only gotten better. Loaisiga and Cessa stepped up last year in pen roles. Add them to Green, Britton, Chapman and you’ve got a strong pen. That’s before you see what Ottavino can give you. If he can bounce back from a rough 2020, then all the better. Ultimately, the team, as is, is definitely the favorite for the ALE, likely the AL favorite, but certainly behind SD and LA. With the prospect of DJ being on the radar and another pitcher, they could catch up. We will see

The best team is not based on their financial value, it’s based on their on field production. The BTV values are absolutely useless beyond a trade scenario and even then, I’m incredibly skeptical of them