Man, as a yankee fan, I am licking my chops thinking about the AL East this yr. The Red Sox look ultimately vulnerable in that they dont have that fear factor that their offense brought to the table the last 3 yrs. During that time, playing the red sox meant hard fought back and forth action with tons of runs scored and way too much clutch hitting. Winning the season series was a war in 2003 and 2005 and we werent even close in 2004.
This yr, the sox team is built on pitching, but that can be neutralized as they don't have the "outstanding" pitcher that they once had in vintage Petey. They have 2 aces who are not lights out 90% of the time like Petey was, hence the sox will really rely on the back end of their rotation which in and of itself is horrible. The offense is the big story though. After having the most feared lineup in all of baseball, they are 17th in runs in the MLB and 9th out of 14 in the AL. They are also 9th out of 14 in BA in the AL and 8th in OPS and have given up 10 more runs than they have scored. But, the biggest story is that they are 12th in the AL in BAw/RISP at .235 (add 0 for 8 today and it is much lower). The lineup is 2 men deep and can be manuevered around to a point that Manny and Ortiz are forced to go get their pitches instead of waiting for them to come.
Many people will harp on the loss of Coco as being the main reason for the demise, but look at how the lineup is shaking up. Youk has been a great leadoff hitter to this point and if he is moved to the 2 hole when Coco returns, then you add Loretta's .219 BA and .577OPS down in the order with the likes of AGon (.179BA and .497OPS) and the slow starting Varitek who is at .718 in OPS. Also, for those of you who want to harp on the additions, take a look at this stat. Mike Lowell, Mark Loretta, and Alex Gonzalez, the 3 biggest offseason acquisitions not named Coco are batting a combined .238. The guys they let go (Graf, Mueller, and ERent) hit a combined .289 last yr and a whopping .303 to start this season. Of those 3, Lowell is the only one pulling his weight, but he is still low on the power scale with only 2 HRs in his first month of the fens and a pedestrian .250 w/RISP which is what he needs to do batting after Manny or Trot. I wont even bother making a Damon to Coco comparison because of the injury.
Overall, bring on the sox, and I won't even be arrogant enough to call a 2 game sweep as I think our 3 and 4 will split with your 2 and 3 at your house. But, the sox lack of offense is a welcome surprise coming from a yankee fan who has watched the sox completely dominate both mediocre and great pitching the past few yrs. I hope they keep it up. Happy May all....