If numbers tell you that the Yankees cant hit 95 MPH or faster, that doesnt mean your staff can throw it. That's why you have scouts, to chart a gameplan you can actually use. (Simple example I know)
We had better pitchers than the Cardinals in 04, but pitchers dont pitch against each other. They shut us down fairly well too, it was just that our pitching was dominant.
If you havent figured out my second paragraph from my earlier posts, than I am done trying to explain it.
Of course I would use a pitcher who had a better probability of success, what I wouldnt do is assume that my RHP would shut down a statistically weak hitting RHP lineup. Every pitcher is different, and a scout who has seen a team/player could tell you if that probability holds with my pitcher.
Another simple example, lefties crush righties, but there is always that righty who flips the table because of the movement on his pitches.