Close and Late (OPS/PA)
[table]Player|2004|2005|2006|2007|Career|Career OPS
Ortiz|1.014/79|1.293/94|1.199/106|.766/89|.974/694|.943
ARod|.797/92|.938/91|.694/89|1.125/82|.914/1124|.967[/table]
What's the point? In a sample size of 80-120 plate appearances you are going to see some drastic variation. As the sample gets bigger, it really starts approaching career averages.
ARod's got a decent sized career postseason sample, but far from a representative sample. He's only come to the plate 167 times in 10 series. His postseason OPS is .844 compared to a career OPS of .967. Does that mean he'll automatically play at a 1.090 level over his next 167 PAs to hit his career mark? No, streaks happen, and there's no telling how he'll be swinging it in the next September that is a prelude to a postseason appearance for him. And good pitching happens in the postseason more often than bad pitching, unlike the regular season. So maybe he won't play at a HOF level, but if I were a betting man I'd take the over if the line were .900 OPS for that many PAs looking forward, and that is damn useful in October.
Now may be the time to acquire him. Every season is full of good streaks and slumps. He's clearly had plenty of slump lately and a correction is likely to occur.