ORS

Wants no part of the awesomeness that is Mark Kotsay. Solid.

SOLID!

AJ with more of the "solid" to Lowell. Keep it coming.

What game are you watching? He threw 8 strikes in 19 pitches. I welcome more of that the rest of the game.

I've posted in the past, with some analysis, that the major difference in offensive production in the leagues is due to the DH vs. the pitcher hitting. So, I agree with you that the league difference in negligible......outside the rule difference.....but the rule difference will certainly have an impact on something like striking out. For a quick comparison, using 2008 stats, pitchers and pinch hitters combined for 2846 K's in 9905 PA's. That's 3.48 PA/K. The DH struck out 1756 times in 9252 PA, for 5.26 PA/K. With a league average near 5 runs a game, you only need 4 LOB to average 5 PA a game, which is a nice round number I'll use to turn these rates into per game performance. The 5.26 becomes .95 K/G, the 3.48 is 1.43 K/G. All other things being equal, ie the only difference in leagues is the rule difference, and the difference of 0.5 is really more like 1.0, or close to it, in terms of the ability to strike hitters out. You know, if you want to credit the environment for the change, there's more to it than noting the change and the characteristics of the new place. An honest assessment would consider the original environment. From the 2006-2008, the HR park factor for Kaufman was .890. For Safeco, it was .930. There's more to it than just saying it's a park thing.

Can you merge the other two into this thread? Given the amount of people that frequent this site that will actually follow the draft and comment, one thread for the whole shebang should suffice (provided Jacko's copy and paste from PinstripeCircleJerk.com doesn't include the full bio from first words to the present).

This guy takes attention whoring to epic levels.

Perfect inning from Hughes out of the 'pen. Good thing they are ruining him by using him there.

I have no problem entertaining the idea of trading Bowden. I just want them to maximize the return. Hardy does not represent that, IMO. How much of an upgrade is he over Lowrie (when Lowrie is healthy)? Given his proven issues getting on base consistently, I'd put that difference at marginal. With continued success in Pawtucket, Bowden could enter elite status as a pitching prospect. You don't trade those guys for marginal improvement.

Michael Stanton, MiLB OF

Sonnanstine, the suck bomb that is better than Wakefield (allegedly), is continuing his stellar 2009 campaign. Wish we could have a guy like him.

Would you consider 20% a dent? It's no stretch to think creative businessmen couldn't come up with $5M in revenues per year over such an association. Two years of that is 20%.

Why do they need to dent the $104? The first half of that was the acquisition cost. The second half is his salary. He's been more than worth his salary over 2.33 years, so whatever they are getting out of this relationship in the Japanese market should be judged against the $51M is cost to talk to him.

That's Lowell for you. Guy has been wild and suffered a long inning, he swings out of the zone for a one pitch out.

Gamedays says Pedroia got lucky on pitches 2 & 3, so take advantage.

Go back to walking everyone and being effectively wild. He's just too hittable when he's throwing strikes. Besides, the BP is deeper and better this year, so they can absorb his 5 IP outings. I don't want them to do this only because I feel it will add to their chances of winning games, although I'll like that result. No, my primary desire for this is that Jacko's posting in the game thread is inversely proportional to their WPA, and anything that limits his offerings is a good thing.

HRs are not, technically, balls in play. They go over the fence, ie out of play. Three hits have fallen in, two outs have been made in the field. 3/5 = .600 BABIP.

I stepped away, is the boxscore on Gameday correct?

This Jon Lester guy is pretty good. I suggest they keep him around.

Near the top of the page, after where you've selected the date, game, and pitcher, there is another set of drop downs where you can change the charts to display by pitch type, or extra detailed (where you see called strikes, swinging strikes, balls, balls in play for outs, hits, runs, etc). Just before the charts is a link to see the called pitches for all pitchers in the game.

Gamecast is the ESPN in-game flash player. Could have sworn somebody warned us about using ESPN for discussion and analysis. Anyone remember who that was? Hilarious. Foot meet mouth. Anyway, Gameday is the MLB flash player, and it's pitch displays are linked to MLB's pitch f/x system. If one were so inclined to use the data from pitch f/x, you could go to brooksbaseball.net, and you could look at his pitch type charts. Here's the horizontal x vertical movement chart. http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/break.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2009/month_06/day_04/gid_2009_06_04_texmlb_nyamlb_1//pbp/pitchers/425426.xml&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2 Vertical break is measured relative to a ball without spin traveling at the pitch velocity. So pitches with backspin (four-seamers, two-seam sinkers, changeups) have a positive vertical break because their magnus force makes the ball move less vertically than one without spin would. Pitches with forespin (sliders, curves) have negative break relative to a no spin ball. If you look at the group of blue pitches (sinkers), the top group were the ones thrown in innings 1 & 2 (at about 5" positive vertical break). The lower group (in the 2" to 4" range) were thrown after. That means the ball was sinking more later in the game. He was getting sink. But look at his overall location chart by pitch type.... http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2009/month_06/day_04/gid_2009_06_04_texmlb_nyamlb_1//pbp/pitchers/425426.xml&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyynnn&sp_type=1&s_type=2 Only one of those sinkers thrown in the strikezone occurred in innings 1 & 2. So, while he was getting more sink, he was throwing the pitches in a poorer location. Watching the games indeed. Look at the conclusions reached watching the games. It doesn't match the reality of what happened. This isn't to say that watching the games is worthless, but any analysis should be a mix of observation and analysis, with the analysis side utilizing objective data.

The reason, which should be blantantly obvious to able minded folk, I brought up the point of being "qualified" is that there are several young "unqualified" that many, even yourself, would put in the current top-20 pitchers.....right now. If they were, the composition of the list would change, and not in your favor. Even so, I agree with the stategy, and not because of some arbitrary list. It's a good strategy because it makes sense. I think your argument is better served by ignoring specific examples, which there are for both sides, and focussing on the fact that Phil Hughes is having a struggle at getting MLB hitters out consistently, and he'd be better served by limiting his exposure. Baby steps. Jacko got all pissy because I compared him to Kris Benson. He's got a short memory. Benson was a highly touted prospect. If Phil Hughes continues to pitch like he has, Kris Benson would be a complimentary comparison.