yankees228

Also, as I noted in the initial post, with Cano, anything is possible (meaning he could also regress).

It would simply be Cano's natural progression as a hitter. If he learns to be more patience, I believe his overall numbers (especially his power numbers) can improve. From a statistical, I would agree, there isn't reason to expect an improvement. As for splits evening out I think his fantastic numbers without runners on base will regress, while his awful numbers with RISP will improve (especially if he develops that patience I alluded to). In Swisher's case, for all the reasons Dipre mentioned on the first page, I believe his splits will normalize. However, I admitted that we'll likely see an overall regression from Swisher offensively.

The Yankees' pitching was hardly anything special last year. Consider the following... -It was shaky to the point where they were forced to go with a three man rotation in the playoffs. -Those three guys produced ERA+'s of 127, 106, and 103, one of the worst pitching staffs of a World Series winner in the history of baseball. -Meanwhile, the Red Sox top three produced ERA+'s of 138, 122, and 111 (16 starts). -The bottom of both team's pitching staffs were wildly inconsistent. There was a reason many people, including many people on this site, felt that the Red Sox were better prepared to make a postseason run than the Yankees. The Yankees' starting pitching (with the exception of a few games) stepped up in the postseason, but in the regular season, the difference wasn't the starting pitching.

What's funny is that the new stadium has a closer resemblance to the original Yankee Stadium than the remodeled one did.

Well, again, I mentioned that I'm not taking injuries into account, because they're impossible to predict. While Johnson has suffered an injury plagued career, you would have to admit that many of them are of a freakish nature, and the chances of that are significantly less when you consider the fact that he's not going to be playing the field this year. As for their overall production, Johnson will probably have a better OBP in 2010 than Damon did in 2009, and while I don't expect Johnson's power numbers to be the same as Damon's, they should increase at NYS.

That's fair, but I wasn't really suggesting a lineup, just laying out what I think the Yankees will do. And Keeper, thanks, I appreciate it.

While a thread exists about an expected Yankees' offensive regression, it hasn't been posted in for awhile, and to spark some discussion in the middle of January, I figured I would start a separate thread. I hope none of the moderators have an issue with this, and if it's a big deal, feel free to merge it. Now that I have a bit of time, lets take a look at how the 2010 lineup compares to the 2009 lineup, going spot by spot. While it's an impossibility, I'll assume that everyone stays relatively healthy, because we simply aren't able to accurately predict injuries. For example, one might say that you cannot expect Nick Johnson to stay healthy, but someone else could say that by he's prone to the freak injury, and only playing DH will dramatically decrease the odds of that occurring. Both are valid arguments, and we just don't know, so we'll look at the lineup from a healthy perspective... 1) 2009 - Derek Jeter 2010 - Derek Jeter I think a regression here is quite likely. He's coming off an unexpected career year, and while he's likely to remain productive in 2010, I don't see him replicating a .334/.406/.465 slash line. 2) 2009 - Johnny Damon 2010 - Nick Johnson If Johnson can stay healthy, I don't think they'll see a drop off from the number two spot in the lineup. NYS is likely to improve Johnson's power numbers, and even if they don't reach Damon's (which is likely), he'll make up for it by getting on base more often than Damon did. I think the production will be relatively similar, and I think Johnson has a shot to be even better than Damon was. Also, it should be noted that Johnson, unlike Damon, won't be able to play the nine games in NL ballparks. 3) 2009 - Mark Teixeira 2010 - Mark Teixeira Anything is possible, but more than likely (and especially if he benefits from a full season of A-Rod behind him) we'll see similar production from out of the three spot. 4) 2009 - Alex Rodriguez (with a little Cody Ransom/Ramiro Pena thrown in) 2010 - Alex Rodriguez If A-Rod stays healthy, the Yankees should get more production out of the cleanup spot in 2010 than they did in 2009, considering A-Rod missed the first 28 games last year and clearly wasn't healthy for awhile after coming back. 5) 2009 - Hideki Matsui 2010 - Curtis Granderson The fifth spot in this lineup is really a mystery. Granderson will likely match Matsui's home run total from last year, but how much he gets on base is a mystery. It will probably be a bit worse, but if Granderson can rebound from last year, which isn't unrealistic, he could come fairly close. Granderson will also be able to play the nine games in NL ballparks and will never have to be removed for a pinch runner late in the game. Granderson will also be able to do much more once he gets on base than Matsui was able to do. 6) 2009 - Jorge Posada 2010 - Jorge Posada Posada had one of the better years of his career last year, and he's getting up in age, which probably puts him in a similar boat as Jeter. He might regress some, but if he stays healthy, and the Yankees give him the appropriate amount of rest, I don't expect the drop off to be too severe. 7) 2009 - Robinson Cano 2010 - Robinson Cano Like Granderson, Cano is a mystery. Coming off a bad 2008 season, he was very good last year, and his ridiculous splits with RISP should even out a bit this year. I don't expect him to regress much, and an improvement is possible. It wouldn't shock me if Cano is hitting fifth at some point in 2010. 8) 2009 - Nick Swisher 2010 - Nick Swisher Coming off a career year, Swisher's overall numbers are likely to drop a bit, but while his road numbers are unsustainable, he should see a significant improvement in his home numbers. Again, a regression is probable, but with his splits evening out, it shouldn't be too severe. 9) 2009 - Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner 2010 - Brett Gardner/possible a RHH I think they should see a slight improvement here. Gardner's numbers weren't that far behind Cabrera's last year, and with more playing time, he might be able to work his way closer to a 100 OPS+. Also, when you consider what Gardner does on the base paths, and the possibility that they'll have a lefty/righty platoon out of this spot, an improvement is probably likely. At the very least, the production should be similar. So to recap... 1) Probably a regression. 2) Similar. 3) Similar. 4) Improvement. 5) Probably a regression in the on base department, but when you consider the difference between the two players on the bases, and Granderson's potential, similar production (or even an increase in production) is possible. 6) If used correctly, probably only a slight regression. 7) Anything is possible out of this spot, but a slight improvement wouldn't shock me. 8) Probably a regression. 9) Probably a slight improvement. Overall, I would say this lineup is built to produce in a similar fashion as last year's lineup. It should be noted that there are obvious factors that could change this. Among those are injuries and the return of Johnny Damon.

So I guess, by your logic, Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park...

Excellent analysis Dipre. I don't have too much to add, except that, once again, I'll credit the flexibility of the Red Sox approach. Without the Ortiz/Ramirez combination, and with the Yankees now having a similar 3-4, they've realized that they need a different philosophy to compete for a championship. For much of this decade, both the Yankees and the Red Sox approached each season with similar philosophies; power and OBP. With the Red Sox, at least in the middle of the lineup, having the edge over the Yankees for awhile, maybe the Yankees should have considered going about things a bit differently in an effort to compete. Now, with the Yankees having the clear advantage in the power department and the middle of the order, the Red Sox have adjusted their approach. It should be a fun and interesting season, and I can't wait for it to get started.

A great player who helped save baseball. In my opinion, the fact that he used steroids is almost irrelevant. I know that isn't the popular opinion, and I'm not looking to get into a debate over something that has been discussed ad nauseam, just sharing my thoughts on the matter.

I agree with most of this. Good post Jacko. The other thing, if healthy, is that you'll be looking at a full season from A-Rod, and a full season from Chamberlain/Hughes (whoever isn't starting) as the setup man. Those are two things they didn't have last year.

True, but my comment was never meant as a Yankee - Red Sox comparison. It was simply an attempt to refute RS's comment.

Just judging by what he had done in the past, and how they opened up the season, that's what I would assume. However, exactly where he was projected is besides the point.

Haha, yeah, I really can't complain about my sports' teams. Three championships in the past three years is pretty decent lol.