Red Sox 2024 Offseason Top Prospects: #7, Luis Perales

#7 P Luis Perales (Greenville Drive, Portland Sea Dogs)
Luis Perales has been in the Red Sox system for quite some time now, signing for $75,000 in the summer of 2019, and yet the right-handed pitcher will only be in his age 22 season in 2025. What was once a not highly-touted prospect out of Venezuela has quickly become the Red Sox’s top pitching prospect despite a series of injuries. Since debuting in the Sox system in 2021 Perales has thrown 161 innings across 44 games, 42 of them starts. Yet despite all the injuries and setbacks, Perales reached Double A in 2024, where in two games, he surrendered only a single run in 7 1/3 innings and struck out ten before the need for Tommy John surgery cut his season short.

In November of 2023, Perales was added to the 40-man roster to be protected in the Rule 5 draft. In 2024, Perales made nine starts, throwing 33 2/3 innings with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. More impressively, however, was the young right-hander’s strikeouts per nine innings, where he had a career-high of 15 and tied his career-low for his walks per nine at 3.2.

Despite the strong start to the season, Perales suffered an elbow injury in June and Tommy John surgery near the end of the month, which will likely keep him out of pitching until late 2025.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs

What to Like:
Perales has an incredible fastball; FanGraphs has it sitting between 96-98 mph and topping out at 100 before his surgery. The velocity of his fastball had already improved since 2023. Along with the speed, the pitch has around 20 inches of induced vertical break, allowing it to play up in the zone to induce swinging strikes.

Along with the fastball, he has a variety of other pitches as he throws a cutter, slider, and changeup. While none are as good as his fastball, his cutter and slider are interesting pitches. His cutter has shown flashes of potential but will need a more consistent arm speed to make it more deceptive.

Perales gets an 11-to-5 shape with the slider, and it’s viewed as advanced for his age. With a good feel for the spin, he can locate either in or out of the zone for swinging strikes.

What to Work On:
Right away, he needs consistency with his delivery and the ability to repeat it better within outings. If he can’t become consistent with his delivery, his potential role would likely be out of the bullpen.

Another aspect that Perales must improve is his ability to handle a full season’s workload. While he can’t control Tommy John surgery, Perales has only pitched in 10 or more games twice in his career, in 2022 and 2023, the latter being when he pitched in a career-high 21 games.

Finally, his changeup and cutter need improvement. These two pitches have shown to be his most inconsistent when pitching. While the changeup has a chance of being an average offering for Perales, it seems his cutter will be below average even if he improves it.

What’s Next:
Coming off of Tommy John surgery, it is likely that Perales will miss most of the 2025 season. Depending on the Red Sox's position in the playoff race, there is a chance they could have him rehab as a reliever in hopes that he could boost the bullpen for the last few weeks of the season. It would likely be a 2026 pro debut, so long as he doesn’t suffer another injury.

As for Perales’ future, it could vary. In some projects, he will have the potential to become a middle-of-the-rotation arm if he can find consistent delivery and hone his secondary pitches. At the same time, he will likely become a backend-of-the-rotation option or even a multi-inning reliever with the possibility of being a setup man.

Overall, Perales has a lot of talent. Whether he can harness it all will be determined on how well his body can hold up over a full season and possibly a shift to the bullpen. Regardless, it seems like the Red Sox have an interesting pitcher to continue developing. With his recent injury he will have time to rehab and grow stronger and despite being in the system for quite some time now, he's still young as Perales won't turn 22 until April. He has time on his side to develop, but hopefully there won't be too many more setbacks. 

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