Is Jordan Hicks Too Broken for the Red Sox to Fix?

Jordan Hicks certainly didn't do a great job of endearing himself to the Boston Red Sox faithful after arriving as 25% of the trade return for Rafael Devers. However, with Kyle Harrison looking crowded out of the rotation and James Tibbs III plying his trade in Los Angeles, the flamethrowing right-hander may be the Sox's best chance of recouping an iota of value from that ill-advised blockbuster.

Once a superlative high-leverage relief arm for the St. Louis Cardinals, Hicks' career went wayward after signing a four-year contract with the San Francisco Giants that came with the stipulation that he'd attempt a move to the rotation. In 42 appearances (29 starts) in the Bay Area, the right-hander logged a 4.83 ERA and 4.15 FIP, watching his strikeout rate plummet while proving unable to reel in his unwieldy habit for issuing free passes.

The Red Sox acquired Hicks and transferred him right back to the 'pen, but things only got worse. Opposing hitters posted a .949 OPS against him as he recorded an 8.20 ERA and 6.19 FIP. His 15.5% strikeout rate was pitiful; his 12.4% walk rate was just plain ugly. The stuff was just no longer playing up in a short-stint capacity, and Hicks was placed on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder injury in early September, prematurely ending his season.

Now on the fringes of the roster, the former closer is likely only safe by virtue of being owed $25 million over the next two years; no team will pay him that much for his recent production, and the Red Sox are unlikely to waive him while soaking up such a large dead cap hit. As such, expect Hicks to be on the Opening Day roster in 2026, barring a bad-contract for bad-contract swap at some point this winter.

Instead of just lamenting his presence, though, let's try to see if Andrew Bailey and the pitching lab can do anything to help Hicks return to his former glory.

His best season was probably in 2023 when he posted a 3.29 ERA (3.30 xERA, 3.22 FIP) between the Cardinals and Blue Jays while rocking a career-best strikeout rate of 28.4%. Between that year and this past season, look at all the places Hicks has declined (2024 is included for reference):

*Chart courtesy of Baseball Savant

The average exit velocity he allows has jumped by more than three miles per hour, and his hard-hit rate has jumped by nearly ten percent. His average fastball velocity has wilted by 2.5 mph, which is directly related to the five-percent drop in whiff rate. And, because of his recurring shoulder issues, his arm angle has declined by about five degrees since 2023, which factors into the next part of our discussion.

Hicks remains excellent at generating ground balls thanks to his sinker-heavy approach. As someone who utilizes perceived rise well, his vertical movement profile generally remains the same as it was a few years ago (each of his pitches generally functions with anywhere from zero to five inches of perceived rise). However, we've talked about the importance in having movement variance along at least one of the planes — it's a necessary factor in being an effective pitch tunneler. But look at Hicks' horizontal movement over the years:

At his best (2023), Hicks has kept things incredibly tight on the x-axis. However, as he's lowered his arm angle over the past few seasons, his range of horizontal movement has shifted dramatically. Which, in turn, has made him an easier pitcher to read and react to; large changes in run or sweep are far easier to pick up on in the batter's box than minuscule ones. With declining velocity in conjunction to more distinguishable pitches, it's no wonder how hitters have become better at approaching Hicks.

Again, this is a little backwards from how we traditionally think about improving a pitcher's arsenal. Normally, we want more variance in movement, not less (it forces hitters to sell out to one side of the plate, rather than being able to target a specific part of the zone). But Hicks has made a living on the margins, using upper-echelon velocity to punish batters into ground outs and pop-outs, rather than generating reams of strikeouts.

Adding a few more ticks back to his arm, if at all possible, would be the easiest fix here; getting him to tighten his splitter back up would also suffice. The talent is there, even if his unique profile requires everything to click at the same time to be effective.

There's a good chance that Jordan Hicks' best MLB days are behind him. But, so long as the Red Sox feel obligated to roster him, there's no use in treating him like a lost cause when there are some apparent tweaks in plain sight.