Ryan Salvaggio

Not much was known about 28-year old Ryan Watson when he was acquired by the Boston Red Sox back in December in a complicate process in which he was selected and then promptly traded by the Athletics in the Rule 5 Draft. Then again, the same could be said about Garrett Whitlock after he was taken from the Yankees' minor league system in 2021, and Justin Slaten when he was acquired from the Mets via trade in 2024. It was the continued success of those two however, that gave fans some hope that the Red Sox could once again strike gold via the Rule 5 Draft, something most teams don’t usually hit on once let alone potentially three times. On paper, Watson profiled as an arm that checked a lot of boxes the Red Sox have gravitated towards in their recent reliever acquisitions. Pitching for Sacramento, the Triple-A affiliate of the San Francisco Giants, the 6-5 righty with great extension and a five-pitch mix owned a 4.26 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 50.2 innings while amassing 11.37 K/9 (28.1 K%) and 2.84 BB/9 (7.0 BB%) ratios. Those who follow FanGraphs will know that while those walk numbers put him into the average (2.9 BB/9, 7.7 BB%) to above-average (2.5 BB/9, 6.5 BB%) tier, his strikeout numbers graded out as excellent. It was those numbers one would think that made Watson a standout target for Breslow and ones he’d hoped Watson would carry over in his opportunity with Boston. Now ten appearances into his big-league career, and the owner of a 8.10 ERA and 7.38 FIP, it would appear the only thing Watson has carried over (outside of continuing to throw the kitchen sink at hitters), is his borderline elite ability to get downhill. His 7.2 feet of extension is good for the 95th percentile across MLB. After that, not much else has gone right; he’s not attacking hitters nearly enough to consistently be successful, and when he is, they’re lighting him up. Watson finds himself in just the second percentile in K% (10.5%) and 27th percentile in BB% (12.3%), both far cries from what made him such an appealing option to the Red Sox in the first place. Add in a league-average 25.3 Whiff% (48th percentile), a lack of chase on really any of the pitches in his repertoire (23.1%, 11th percentile), and the fact that he’s getting barreled up at a pretty frequent pace (16.3 Barrel%, 7th percentile) and 44.2% HardHit% (31st percentile), and you have a pitcher who is flirting with danger pretty much every time he steps out on the mound. Those choosing to come to Watson’s defense may argue that it is far too early to write him off after just 13.1 innings in the majors. Instead, time must be given to him like it was expected to be given to Whitlock and Slaten, who, similarly to Watson, were looked at as multi-inning arms out of the bullpen in their rookie campaigns. That argument falls apart rather quickly though when you look back and realize just how soon both were able to shed that label and become legitimate weapons and important pieces to Boston’s bullpens during those seasons. The 2021 campaign saw Whitlock dominate right out of the gate on route to becoming one of the most trusted relievers the Red Sox have had to this date. In his first ten outings, he accumulated a 1.77 ERA and 2.97 FIP over 20.1 innings pitched with a strong 9.30 K/9 (27 K%) and 1.33 BB/9 (4 BB%). If there was a spot where Whitlock struggled similarly to Watson, it was in his HardHit%, which came in at 46%, though the former was far better at keeping away from danger, holding opponents to a measly .227 average against. Fans will remember Slaten’s 2024 debut as the spot where he was tasked with coming into the 10th inning of a 3-3 game on Opening Day in Seattle and being asked to get out of a first-and-third, zero-outs jam with Mariners star Julio Rodriguez at the plate. As we all know that matchup went to Rodriguez, who walked off Slaten and the Sox, ruining the start to his big-league career. Following that, he absolutely dominated in his next 10 outings, pitching to a tune of an 1.40 ERA and 2.07 FIP in 17.1 innings with a 7.27 K/9 (23 K%) and similarly to Whitlock, outstanding 1.04 BB/9 (3 BB%). Contrary to what Watson has done so far, Slaten was also able to stay away from opponents' barrels, with a HardHit% of just 37% and opponents average of .140. While it is a totally fair case to make for giving rookies time to adjust to the top level, Watson, who is older and therefore should arguably be more polished, has not done a whole lot to instill any confidence in continuing to send him out there. Especially when he hasn’t been able to do the main thing that garnered him praise from Alex Cora in spring training when he was fighting for a roster spot: pound the strike zone. What may also be damning for Watson — outside of another rough outing yesterday where he entered the ninth with a five-run lead and ended up giving way to Aroldis Chapman to secure what became an 8-6 Boston victory — is the fact that the organization has not been shy at bringing up reinforcements so far this season. We’ve already seen the debuts of Tyler Uberstine, Tyler Samaniego, and Jack Anderson. With the likes of Payton Tolle (three starts, 3.00 ERA, 15.0 IP), Jake Bennett (four starts, 0.55 ERA, 16.1 IP), Seth Martinez (six appearances, 2.51 ERA, 14.1 IP), Devin Sweet (seven appearances, 3.86 ERA, 11.2 IP) and Tayron Guerrero (seven appearances, 1.42 ERA, 6.1 IP) all off to strong starts in Worcester, it’s beginning to feel like Watson may need to go on his Whitlock/Slaten-type run sooner rather than later if he wants to continue Boston’s trend of Rule 5 Draft Pick supremacy. Otherwise, he may wind up with a one-way ticket back to Sacramento. View full article

Hmmm, since we apparently are out to get Story right now I'm thinking either the "Story Slammers" or "Story Silencers" but definitely workshopping ideas

Soooo.... the last time I checked, the analytics referenced in the article that clearly showcase a decline in Story's defensive ability are indeed facts.... since it's actual data that showcases he's been bad defensively. Not like those are made up or anything. He's also getting older.... players tend to decline when they get older, their abilities diminish, like his have been. So most teams and people thinking critically would see that, while also seeing a younger option that can step in and be solid there, when that should be the plan for the future before Franklin Arias gets here, and maybe consider it for the betterment of the team. 2024 Story also only played 26 games, kinda weird you left that out in your argument for him and it's not like I said to bench him, just move him to a spot that takes some pressure off him and where he was borderline elite before. If you'd prefer to keep running him out there though with his declining numbers over someone who's 10 years younger than him though to each their own I guess.

If you were to ask a Boston Red Sox fan to give you a list of some of their top contributing factors to the team's massively underwhelming start to the season, it would be a safe bet that the play of Trevor Story would fall near the top of every single one. Now, if you asked those same people to pick which aspect of Story’s game has frustrated them the most, 99% of them would probably say his hitting, choosing to focus on things like his abysmal slash line (.208/.222/.338) or astonishingly below-league-average chase (47.2%), strikeout (2.5%), and walk (29.6%) rates. While Story’s continued offensive woes definitely deserve being called out, something that hasn’t been discussed nearly enough and is arguably just as, if not more, concerning is the rapid decline of his defensive capabilities at shortstop. With Story, anyone who has followed him throughout his career knows his streakiness at the plate comes with the name. But even with those inconsistencies, one thing he’s always been able to hang his hat on is his fantastic and at-times elite ability to pick it at short, where he owns a .977 career fielding percentage. For a team that prioritized defense and run prevention in the offseason, something that has become a bit of a running joke among the fanbase on social media now as they’ve continued to falter, the writing of Story’s decline was plastered all over the wall towards the end of last season. He ended the 2025 campaign tied for the American League lead in errors (19, alongside the Yankees’ Anthony Volpe), and third for the most errors in baseball, only behind Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz (26) and Washington’s C.J. Abrams (22). Of those 19, 11 were of the throwing variety, clearly indicating what should’ve been a concern for the Sox. The advanced analytics don’t paint much of a better picture either. His -7 Defensive Runs Saved put him at fifth-worst in the big leagues a season ago. His Rthrow, or Infield Throwing Runs Above Average — which takes into consideration the number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on how he completes the play given where the ball was fielded, how hard it was hit, and the speed of the runner (courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions) — was -5, which put him tied for third-worst among all qualified shortstops in 2025 (and second among AL shortstops). Likewise, his 36th-percentile arm strength and -9 Outs Above Average were among the worst figures among all shortstops. Transition back to this season . and Story’s numbers don’t appear to be improving, but actually getting worse. His four errors so far, three of which came in the first nine games of the season, places him behind only Rays third baseman Junior Caminero for the most in all of baseball. Not to mention his .935 Fielding Percentage is on pace to be a career low, his -2 OAA is only getting worse by the day, and his arm strength has slipped further to the 21st percentile. Story’s latest miscue, a ball in which he ranged up the middle, dove for, and tried to flip to second baseman Marcelo Mayer that resulted in his glove sailing further than the ball did in a 13-6 loss to the Twins, might not be a better example that it may be time to make a change in the Red Sox middle infield and flip both Story and Mayer. A move to second base shouldn’t come as an unfamiliar feeling to Story, who already went through the transition once in a Red Sox uniform when he played 94 games there in 2022 in his first year with the club. Of course, those circumstances were a little different with Xander Bogaerts still on the roster at the time. That being said, Story still thrived in the role, putting together one of the best defensive campaigns he’s ever had. His .984 Fielding Percentage was the second-best of his career in any healthy season, only behind the 2019 season where he finished with a .987.. His +6 Defensive Runs Saved was good for eighth-best among all second basemen league wide. Add in his 10 OAA, good for the 96th percentile in the league, and again second best of his career only behind 2019 where he had 18 with Colorado, and to say Story’s short-lived stint at second was downright elite might be an understatement. As for Marcelo Mayer, who has looked smooth at both third (.985%, 2 OAA in 39 games) and second (.974%, 2 OAA in 23 games) so far in his young career, a move back to his natural position of shortstop could give Boston an obviously younger option with the potential of more range and better arm strength. Such a flip would serve as a much-needed attempt to not only improve their defense, but take a step in the direction of righting what has quickly become a sinking ship and could only get worse if the defense continues to falter. View full article

Heading into the 2026 season, one could argue that the center field position for the Boston Red Sox is toward, if not at the top, of the list of positions the team and fans should have the fewest amount of questions about. Finally a Gold Glove winner after a phenomenal defensive campaign in 2025, Ceddanne Rafaela looks to not only repeat the success that earned him his well-deserved hardware, but also find some more consistency at the plate. Red Sox Centerfield At A Glance Starter: Ceddanne Rafaela Backup: Jarren Duran Depth: Nate Eaton, Kristian Campbell, Braiden Ward Red Sox fWAR Ranking Last Year: 13th out of 30 Red Sox fWAR Projection This Year: 8th out of 30 The Good It’s no secret the Red Sox’s outfield has been, and will continue to be, under the microscope as the season gets underway and Alex Cora tries to figure out how he’ll position the likes of Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Masataka Yoshida, and his reigning Gold Glove winners Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela across the outfield and at designated hitter. Perhaps no more than just two seasons ago, the light-hitting and overly aggressive Rafaela, who owned a 2.6 BB% and 46.4 Chase% in 2024, both of which were in the 1st percentile league-wide, may have found himself heading for a platoon/super-utility role if Cora had found himself in a similar predicament heading into the 2025 campaign. As we turn the page to 2026 however, there is no doubt in Cora’s mind or anyone else's in the Red Sox organization that anyone other than Rafaela should be their man in center. It may seem like an impossible task, but Rafaela will look to build off a phenomenal defensive season a year ago, one that saw him lead all American League centerfielders in Outs Above Average (21), which he would have led all of baseball in if it wasn’t for the Cubs young phenom Pete Crow-Armstrong. And if the World Baseball Classic and Spring Training has been anything to show for, including recently this past week in games against the Twins and Braves, Rafaela is picking up in his defensive prowess right where he left off a season ago. With Rafaela however, defense is never going to be lacking. His questions have always stemmed from his bat, and more specifically the inability to work counts and lay off pitches. The 2025 season saw Rafaela not only improve on those numbers, getting his BB% to 4.8 and Chase% to 42.2, but also drastically decreasing his K% from 26.4% (22nd percentile) in 2024 to 19.9, good to place himself in the 56th percentile. Red Sox fans also had the pleasure (and maybe displeasure, as we’ll get to in a moment) of finding out throughout last season that when Ceddanne gets hot, he gets REALLY hot. Those who follow the team will surely remember his stretch in June and July where he made NESN’s Jonathan Papelbon’s prediction of an MVP candidacy in Rafaela’s future not seem so farfetched, accumulating a .284/.312/.547/.859 slash line with 11 HRs and 29 RBIs across 49 games and 189 plate appearances. No moment was more impressive than his thunderous walk-off home run prior to the All-Star break off then Rays closer Pete Fairbanks, to which NESN’s Dave O’Brien appropriately described as “Rafaela killed it.” The Bad Unfortunately for Rafaela, the baseball season doesn’t just take place in just June and July, and for just as hot as he was in those two months, he was just as cold in April, March, and August. Those three months saw Rafaela finish with a line of just .210/.272/.318/.590 with 3 HRs and 22 RBI in 56 games and 213 plate appearances. Take it a step further and look at Rafaela’s first and second half splits, where he slashed .271/.314/.483/.796 in the first 92 games and .218/.268/.319/.587 in the final 64 of the regular season, and you’ll see the inconsistencies can still rear their ugly head for the 25-year-old. And while it was important to shed light on Rafaela’s improvements from 2024 to 2025 in terms of much-needed plate discipline, his numbers there still aren’t anything to write home about. That previously mentioned 4.8 BB% and 42.2 Chase% still only puts him in the seventh and second percentiles, respectively. While his defense will continue to be his calling card and almost certainly be what should have him in the lineup on a nightly basis, you can’t help but wonder what another cold streak would mean for his playing time given the logjam still clogging up the depth chart. The Bottom Line It is worth briefly touching on the possibility that could be on the table if Alex Cora wants to get completely crazy and keep Rafaela in the lineup while not having to sit anyone. When Jarren Duran was putting together his MVP-caliber season back in 2024, he manned the position 105 out of the 160 games he played that year, to the tune of a career-best 8.7 WAR. The reason for his abundance of play there was Trevor Story’s early season shoulder injury that saw Rafaela move into the infield and help stabilize the shortstop position, where he played 82 of his 152 games that season. While you could argue there is a slight chance of that happening, as Rafaela did appear at second base 24 times last year, one would think an absolute doomsday scenario of injuries combined with massive underperformances would have to occur for Cora to go back on his word when he met with the media early in Spring Training and said it would be unlikely that Rafaela played second base this season. We will obviously have our answers on how the Red Sox outfield situation will shape up once the first pitch is thrown in Cincinnati on March 26, but it doesn’t feel too outlandish to say the Red Sox’s most effective lineup will be the one that features the reigning Gold Glove winner staying put in center field and looking to build off a strong 2025 campaign. View full article