Brandon Glick

The Red Sox got their ace in left-handed starter Garrett Crochet. The price they paid, though, may prove to be steeper than initially feared. When the Red Sox lost out on Juan Soto, fans couldn't do much but chuckle at the size of his contract. When they missed out on Max Fried, it stung a bit more because he signed with the Yankees, but the Yankees were always going to do something inane as a reaction to losing Soto to their crosstown rivals. When it became clear that teams like the Cubs and Phillies had put in enticing bids for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, Boston finally sprang into action, dealing a package headline by top prospect Kyle Teel to secure the flamethrower. Crochet is a 25-year-old stud with some more unrealized potential on top of the 2.38 xFIP he produced in 2024. He was always going to cost a lot, and the Red Sox will be a demonstrably better team in 2025 because he’s on their roster. The only issue facing the Red Sox now is that they might not have anyone capable of catching him. Teel, the 25th-best prospect in baseball according to MiLB.com, has an excellent arm (he caught 38% of attempted basestealers in his final season in college) and possesses improving framing skills. It would have taken some time, of course, but there was a world in which Teel learned to work in harmony with the staff in Boston, deftly handling all the duties of a starting catcher while swinging an above-average bat. Now, his future lies in Chicago and Boston’s future at catcher is nowhere to be found. Connor Wong is the holdover starter from the 2024 campaign, and while his bat is impressive for a backstop — he ran a .280/.333/.425 slash line, good for a 110 wRC+ — his defensive metrics are anything but. He ranked in the ninth percentile in framing last season, and according to Statcast's Fielding Run Value, he was worth a hideous -10 runs -10 run over 878 1/3 innings behind the plate. In about 2,000 career innings, he’s accrued -14 FRV. Suffice it to say, Wong is a nice player to have on the roster, but he shouldn’t be the team’s leading man at catcher. It’s promising that he was worth 1.1 fWAR despite his terrible work in the field, but that only further cements the notion that he should be getting more reps at DH and serving as an emergency third catcher when needed. Luckily, the Red Sox appear to have found their backup backstop in another, lesser-publicized trade from last week, securing Carlos Narváez from the Yankees in exchange for Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, along with some international bonus pool space. Rodriguez-Cruz is now the 12th-best prospect in the Yankees’ system, which highlights how highly Boston views Narváez. The 26-year-old catcher posted a .782 OPS (108 wRC+) in 96 games at Triple A, and he’s well-regarded behind the dish, especially for his strong arm. But, again, he’s a backup until proven otherwise. And both he and Wong (28) are in or approaching their late 20s. Neither is going to replace what Teel projects to bring to the table. Where else can Boston turn for their catcher of the future? Well, you can forget the free agent market. Danny Jansen (Rays), Carson Kelly (Cubs), Travis d’Arnaud (Angels), Kyle Higashioka (Rangers), and Gary Sanchez (Orioles) have all signed already, and they, along with every notable free agent catcher still available, are in their 30s. As a short-term fix, perhaps a defense-first option like Tucker Barnhart or (gulp) offensive black hole Martin Maldonado could make for a good band-aid, but that doesn’t solve the larger problem in the organization now that Teel wears the wrong color Sox. The trade market does hold better prospects, if only by default. The Pirates are loaded with high-upside options — former top prospect Joey Bart, former first overall pick Henry Davis, well-regarded youngster Endy Rodríguez — but none are proven options and all come with serious warts. The Cardinals would surely love to get out from under Willson Contreras’s contract, but his already-meh defense is only declining as he ages. Would the Braves be willing to move Sean Murphy for a huge return? Maybe the Phillies will make J.T. Realmuto available, though he’s already 33 and will hit free agency after next season. The point of this exercise is not to paint a doom-and-gloom picture of the long-term situation behind the dish in Boston. It’s simply to demonstrate that Teel, though no sure thing himself, is immensely valuable precisely because of how rare it is to find a legitimate two-way catcher. The cost for Crochet was always going to sting, and the White Sox were smart to target a player who can be their answer at catcher for the next half-decade or longer. How the Red Sox respond to losing him could define not just their 2025 season, but the foreseeable future in Boston. View full article

Still in need of a catcher and more pitchers, the Red Sox can't afford to stop adding reinforcements to their roster now. View full video

Boston finally has its ace, though it paid an incredibly large price to land him. View full video

The Red Sox have only had glimpses of the mile-high slugger Trevor Story used to be, much to the chagrin of the Fenway faithful. Despite what our intuitions may tell us, hope is not yet lost. Earlier this week, @Davy Andrews laid out a pretty strong case for why Trevor Story — who has half of his original six-year, $140-million deal remaining — just isn’t going to live up to that massive contract. Story's bat has fallen off a cliff in recent years, especially in terms of strikeout rate and exit velocity. He’s getting slower, and at 32 years old, coming off three consecutive injury-shortened seasons, he isn’t going to magically regain the footspeed that allowed him to swipe 27 bags per 162 games between 2018 and 21. His defense is excellent, but his throwing arm and declining range will eventually force him to move off shortstop. And, of course, he simply just can’t stay healthy, having played in just 163 games since coming to Boston. Wait, where was I going with this again? Oh yes — despite all those worrisome trends and issues, Story needn't have a tragic ending. Story’s story is far from being completely written, and it’s not like anyone expected his contract to be a fairytale anyway. At this point, the narrative is what it is, and all Story can do now is forge ahead and write a new chapter. I have so many more puns, but I have to stop or Davy won’t let this paragraph see the light of day. [Editor's Note: Yup.] To start, let’s tackle that first (and most pressing) point: Story’s bat is in rapid decline. From his debut in 2016 to his final year in Colorado, Story averaged an .863 OPS (112 OPS+, which is park adjusted), 4.5 WAR, and 26 home runs per season. In 2019, which was arguably his best season, he ranked in the 82nd percentile in average exit velocity and the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate, and was above-average in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Coors Field may have helped boost his numbers, but Story was a certified star in his prime, and the altitude didn't magically make him hit the ball harder. Fast-forward to 2024, and everything but Story's walk rate was pretty much in the gutter. However, it was an incredibly small sample size, just 106 plate appearances, and he got hot down the stretch, hitting for a 119 wRC+ and .790 OPS in September. Take things back a year or two, and you’ll see that Story still has the skills that made him a menace in the batter’s box. His max exit velocity in 2022 was 113.4 miles per hour, which ranked in the 92nd percentile; his average launch angle has consistently remained incredibly around his career average of 17.7 degrees; and, against fastballs, he is still deadly, batting .294 with a .471 slugging percentage in 2024. Story's strikeout rate has ballooned since coming to Boston, but the injuries shoulder a huge portion of the blame for that. It’s hard to get into a rhythm at the plate without consistent reps, and Story’s huge 11% walk rate in September is an encouraging sign that he may finally be getting comfortable with his plate approach again. He may not be the hitter he was with the Rockies, but the profile of a starting-caliber shortstop is still there. Assuming his bat can make something of a comeback, Story still needs to account for his slowing speed. In 2019, his sprint speed ranked in the 95th percentile in all of baseball. In 2022, it ranked 80th. And in his limited action last year, his sprint speed fell all the way to the 70th percentile. Speed is the first thing to go as athletes age, and Story’s injury history means that he may lose it faster than most. Still, being an above-average sprinter means his speed hasn't completely evaporated yet, and his elite baserunning instincts should only improve with age. In every season of his career, Story has been above-average in Statcast’s Baserunning Run Value (a metric designed to use data to evaluate the performance of baserunners in taking extra bases). He’s consistently been in the 75th percentile or higher for that metric, and he peaked at the 96th percentile in 2020. He may not steal as many bases as he once did, and he may not be the best bet to advance from first to third on every single to the outfield, but you can be sure Story won’t run himself into outs. That, by itself, is a valuable skill. Lastly, let’s take a look at his defense. His arm has always been a huge weakness, peaking at the 37th percentile in 2020. That isn’t going to improve any time soon. However, he’s always been a stellar shortstop in terms of range and instincts, and that should continue at least through the life of his deal in Boston. Statcast's Fielding Run Value metric thought Story saved the Red Sox two runs, which was impressive considering how little time he got to spend at the position. In his last full season in 2019, Story was worth an outstanding 14 runs, a top-10 mark among all players. Perhaps a move over to second base would help mask his weak arm, but his glove remains a net positive. Now, admittedly, this is a pretty optimistic take on a guy who is nearing his mid-30s and can’t seem to stay on the field. Story does have an opt-out on his contract after this season, but he’s a virtual lock to remain with the Red Sox for the final two years and $46 million on his contract. Boston could void that opt-out by exercising a $25 million club option that would tack on a seventh year to the original contract, but Story would need to have one of the greatest seasons ever in 2025 to make that even a remote possibility. Once upon a time, Story was meant to be the final piece in an infield puzzle that also included Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. W ith the former now in San Diego (on his own mess of a contract) and the latter potentially shifting to first base, Story isn’t going to fix all that ails the Red Sox. However, if he can finally beat the injury bug and finally get into a rhythm, Boston will have one less position to worry about in 2025. View full article

Less than a week out from the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox find themselves in the thick of many rumors. What will the team actually do in Dallas come December 9? View full video

As they find themselves further entrenched in Juan Soto rumors, the Red Sox have pivoted to signing a controversial closer. With the understanding that Kenley Jansen would walk away in free agency after two mostly solid years in Beantown, the Red Sox were in the market for some new blood in the back end of their bullpen. Well, calling him “new blood" may be a bit generous as he heads into his age-37 season, but Aroldis Chapman will likely get first crack at filling the closer role in Boston after signing a one-year, $10.75 million deal with the Red Sox on Tuesday. Chapman isn’t the same pitcher who once routinely hurled 105 MPH lightning bolts, though his average fastball velocity still ranked in the 98th percentile in 2024 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. With a 3.79 ERA and 3.04 FIP over 61 2/3 innings, Chapman isn’t a surefire shutdown closer anymore, but yet 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings were right in line with his career norms. On and on the same analysis goes. In totality, it all means that Chapman has fallen from the legendary heights he once occupied, but he’s still a pretty darn good pitcher compared to his contemporaries. Of course, his off-the-field issues can’t be ignored, but purely from a baseball perspective, his addition makes plenty of sense for a team that desperately needs help in the bullpen. That relief crew is filled with a lot of question marks and few answers. Liam Hendricks was an elite closer for a while, but he’s thrown just five innings total since his cancer diagnosis in December 2022. He’s now cancer free, though he required Tommy John surgery immediately after returning to the mound last year, which knocked him out for the entirety of the 2024 season. His track record is strong and he is such an easy guy to root for, but relying on him to be anything in 2025 is a fool’s errand. Justin Slaten (2.93 ERA in 55 1/3 IP) and Greg Weissert (3.13 ERA in 63 1/3 IP) both had strong campaigns this year, though the former was a rookie and the latter struggled in previous cups of coffee with the Yankees. That is to say: they may be solid relievers, but their track records are perilously thin. Beyond them, it’s a barren wasteland out in right-center field at Fenway Park. Justin Wilson (5.59 ERA in 46 2/3 IP) was an unmitigated disaster this past season. Brennan Bernardino (4.06 ERA in 51 IP) and Josh Winckowski (4.14 ERA in 76 IP) were merely average. Michael Fulmer also missed the entire 2024 season with his own UCL injury. Add it up, and you have the makings of a bullpen that looks bad on paper, and only marginally better with Chapman at the helm. The southpaw's still-elite swing-and-miss stuff — his 37.1% strikeout rate ranks in the 99th percentile and his 32.3% whiff rate ranks in the 91st percentile — adds a lot to a group that is losing Jansen’s 28.4% strikeout rate, but it isn’t going to salvage it single-handedly. As long as Chapman is the first of many moves that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow makes to patch up his relief crew, this is a solid signing. If it’s the only thing he does, the late innings may be a nightmare in Boston next season. View full article

The Red Sox have taken a meeting with Snell, winner of the 2023 NL and 2018 AL Cy Young Award. Is he the right pitcher to front the rotation? Before diving into anything here, let’s acknowledge something. Blake Snell’s profile will remind a lot of people of another former Tampa Bay lefty who won the Cy Young award for the Rays and later came to the Red Sox: David Price. Price was utterly brilliant in Florida, maintained his elite performance in Detroit, and then settled in as a solid but unspectacular veteran with the Red Sox (and later, the Dodgers). The issue was that as Price’s performance declined, his price tag escalated. He signed a seven-year, $217-million contract with Boston in 2015, which was the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history until Stephen Strasburg came along (talk about buyer’s remorse). Eventually, Boston got the Dodgers to eat most of the final few years of Price’s deal as part of the ill-fated Mookie Betts contract. Snell and Price may have had similar career journeys up this point, but they are vastly different pitchers. Price was heavily reliant on his sinker and cutter as his primary fastballs, mixing in the occasional changeup and curveball as his offspeed offerings. Snell threw his four-seam fastball a whopping 46% of the time last year, utilizing a changeup, curveball, and slider for the other half of his arsenal. Snell’s career has been up-and-down to this point, with absurd highs (one of only seven pitchers to have won a Cy Young in both leagues), and middling lows (4.06 ERA in 285 ⅔ innings between 2019-21). However, he’s found the next gear over the past three seasons, with a 2.82 ERA (2.98 FIP) in 412.0 innings between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. His 32.5% strikeout rate is among the top marks in the league in that window, as is his .191 batting average against. He’s also done a significantly better job in recent years in limiting the long ball, and his home run percentage (that is, the percentage of all plate appearances in which he allowed a homer) was down to a career-low 1.4% mark in 2024. Though he obviously benefited from playing in spacious Oracle Park, his home run rates were also down across the board in his final few seasons in San Diego. All that adds up to a pitcher who looks like a mighty fine target for the ace-starved Red Sox. Unlike other free agent aces — namely, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried — Snell doesn’t come attached to the qualifying offer this offseason, by virtue of having declined it following the 2023 season. With Nick Pivetta declining his QO, the projected Red Sox rotation looks like this: Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Bryan Bello, and Richard Fitts. The latter impressed in his cup of coffee at the end of this past season, and the first three are all established major-league arms, but none of those pitchers are Game 1 starters. Houck was a breakout star in 2024, but it remains to be seen how he holds up after he blew past his previous career-high in innings (178 2/3, previously 106). Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock could return as contributors at some point, but they remain on the mend from UCL injuries. Snell, who’s made 19 or more starts in every non-pandemic season of his career (and has eclipsed 100+ innings in seven consecutive full seasons), is the kind of pitcher the Red Sox need, especially since he’d add some much-needed southpaw diversity to a righty-dominated rotation. And, as it turns out, the Red Sox front office agrees. Craig Breslow and company reportedly met with the 32-year-old this week, which should pique fans' interest after CEO Sam Kennedy’s claim that the team is willing to exceed the first threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax for the right players. By all accounts, Snell is one of the right players. Even as he nears his mid-30s, he’s a strikeout artist with improving control and a diverse arsenal. He’s going to run any team that signs him more than $100 million, but he may be preferable to the other elite pitchers on the market thanks to his recent performance and detachment from the qualifying offer. For a team that just traded away 2024 NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale, the Red Sox badly need to bring an upper-echelon arm into their rotation this offseason. It’s hard to imagine a better fit than Snell…unless they can shock the world in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. View full article

The Red Sox need to acquire an ace this offseason. Why not pluck one from a division rival? View full video

The Japanese phenom will officially be posted sometime this offseason. It may feel inevitable that he’ll be wearing Dodger Blue come 2025, though Red Sox fans shouldn’t lose hope just yet. It was only just last year that Yoshinobu Yamamoto left the Nippon Professional Baseball League and became the most coveted free agent in the sport. He was the most hyped Japanese baseball player since Shohei Ohtani, who had made the trek to the MLB six years prior. Notably, Yamamoto signed for 12 years and $325 million as a true free agent. Ohtani was made available via the international posting system and had to settle for a minor-league contract with the Los Angeles Angels. The latest Japanese superstar is coming to America, and he has elected to follow in Ohtani's footsteps. Per his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, Roki Sasaki, will be posted in the coming months. Sasaki became a household name while dominating the 2023 World Baseball Classic at 21. He struck out 11 hitters in just 7 2/3 innings, forming an unstoppable triumvirate of aces with Yamamoto and Ohtani that would pave the way to Japan's third WBC title. In total, his Nippon Professional Baseball résumé reads like that of a video game stat line: 29-15 record, 2.10 ERA, 505 strikeouts, 88 walks, all in 394 2/3 innings in 64 starts over four seasons. However, because no player is perfect, there are injury concerns with Roki Sasaki, including a torn oblique and lingering right arm soreness that cost him a number of starts in 2024. His career high in innings is 129 1/3 (set back in 2022), and he reached 111.0 this year across 18 starts. Nevertheless, he’s going to garner the attention of every franchise in the MLB thanks to his combination of dominance on the mound and the cheapness of his salary. What's fascinating about the Marines' decision to post Sasaki now is the financial ramifications of doing so. Because he's not yet 25 years old, the Japanese star can only sign a minor league deal this offseason. Depending on when he's posted, Sasaki will be eligible for a signing bonus between roughly $5-7 million, with smaller market teams having a larger pool of international bonus money available to them. Had Sasaki and the Marines waited until 2026 to access the posting system, the pitcher could have received a contract in excess of $400 million, with the Marines reaping the rewards of the associated 20% posting fee. Just last year, the Orix Blue Wave were given more than $50 million as part of the Yamamoto signing. The heavy assumption around the game right now is that Sasaki will join Ohtani and Yamamoto as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those two combined to sign contracts exceeding $1 billion with L.A. last offseason, and it isn't hard to imagine Sasaki wanting to form the greatest international triumvirate in the sport's long history. He'd also be close to his idol, Yu Darvish, who pitches for the San Diego Padres. It should be expected that Sasaki will end up in L.A. The West Coast is often favored by Japanese players given its relative proximity to their home nation, and the Dodgers' status as baseball's best team should be appealing to a player who has yet to win a Pacific League pennant with the Marines. However, if Sasaki is willing to turn his attention towards the East Coast, the Boston Red Sox would make a mighty fine fit. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has already said the team knows it “needs to raise the ceiling of the rotation”. Sasaki is literally nothing but pure upside at this moment in time. The Red Sox were one of the earliest teams to sign Asian-born players, and they are one of just five major league franchises that has employed ten or more Japanese players. Ever since signing Tomokazu Ohka back in 1999, the Red Sox's pipeline of Japanese players is strong: Hideo Nomo, Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Hirokazu Sawamura, Masataka Yoshida, and Naoyuki Uwasawa. Yoshida’s 2025 status is up in the air at the moment, though he could be an asset in the pursuit of Sasaki, as they were both on the WBC champion Samurai Japan in 2023. The Red Sox could also hand Sasaki the ball on Opening Day as their ace as opposed to the Dodgers, who will be trotting out Yamamoto and Ohtani atop their rotation for the foreseeable future. If status matters to him, that could prove appealing. For what it's worth, the Red Sox also have more than $1 million in extra international signing bonus room than the Dodgers do. It might not mean a lot to someone who is already artificially limiting how much he can earn, but Sasaki will be demanding a majority of any team's bonus pool. Having more to spend means that Boston can give Sasaki more and have a little left over to spend on another player. Also, let’s not forget that Sasaki is still just 23 years old. The team he chooses in this pursuit doesn’t have to be his “forever team”. Ohtani picked the Angels in 2017 at the same age, and then he left for the Dodgers and the allure of $700 million. Sasaki could very well choose a team like the Red Sox where he’ll be the unquestioned star from day one, with the intention of parlaying that reputation into a $500+ million contract down the line when he hits free agency at 29 years old. Regardless of the how or why, the Red Sox need to go all out in their pursuit of Sasaki this winter. There are other excellent pitchers on the market—Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell chief among them—but none come with the combination of youth, upside, and budget-friendliness that Sasaki does. The Dodgers may appear inevitable, but someone has to keep them from building the entirety of the Samurai’s rotation in the MLB. Why not the Red Sox? View full article

Lawson was promoted last month to the major league staff to work with assistant Ben Rosenthal and hitting coach Pete Fatse. What can he bring to the 2025 Red Sox? A few weeks ago, Boston decided to hire Dillon Lawson to the major league coaching staff after his one-year stint as the team’s minor league hitting coordinator. Before coming to Beantown, Lawson spent five years in the Yankees organization, holding various offense-related roles in the major and minor leagues, including his two-year tenure as the big league hitting coach. He also worked as a hitting coach at a few levels of the Astros’ system before that. Despite journeying to different organizations with different hitting philosophies, Lawson has made it a point in his career to help hitters control the zone. That means lowering chase rates, upping swing percentages on pitches in the strike zone, and working advantageous counts. With the team’s announcement that Luis Ortiz would not be returning next year, Lawson’s promotion was a perfect match of need and fit. Most fans will probably remember Lawson for being the first coach Yankees GM Brian Cashman ever fired in the middle of a season (in July 2023). However, people likely don’t recognize that the Yankees’ offense actually struggled more under replacement hitting coach Sean Casey (92 wRC+) than it did with Lawson (96 wRC+). Lawson did oversee Aaron Judge’s all-time great 2022 season (62 home runs, 210 OPS+), and the Yankees made the ALCS that year, eventually falling to the Houston Astros. That season, the Yankees finished first in the major leagues in home runs (254), though their team-wide batting average of .241 was middle of the pack. The team also had a bit of a strikeout problem that year, finishing 18th with 1,391. However, they did make up for that with a league-leading figure in walks (620). After being fired by the Yankees, Lawson refocused his efforts on helping players achieve better hitting habits, which in turn should limit the kinds of prolonged slumps that doomed the Red Sox late last season. Prior to the 2024 All-Star break, the Red Sox ranked eighth in the majors in homers (113), tied for fifth in batting average (.254), sixth in OPS (.746), and 15th in walks (299). However, their standing as the third-worst strikeout team would prove to be a bad omen for the second half, where they dropped in batting average (.249, tied for 10th) and OPS (.731, eighth). Of course, they continued striking out at a problematic clip, leading the AL with 640 following the Midsummer Classic. It’ll be up to the hitting staff to help tone down on those rally-killing punch outs, as well as the front office, which needs to bring in some veterans capable of wearing opposing pitchers down. Lawson’s emphasis on damage-causing contact on pitches in the zone should hopefully cause a ripple effect in the lineup where players are more selective in their approach at the plate. As the 2022 Yankees proved with Lawson at the helm, home runs are great, but their benefits are neutralized by waves of strikeouts. The Red Sox should have no problems fielding a competitive offense again in 2025. Whether or not that unit can avoid prolonged slumps could be the difference between the team making the playoffs, or another October spent watching the festivities from home. View full article

The Braves ace has a long history of elite pitching sandwiched between a few injury-plagued seasons. Would he make sense atop the Sox' rotation? View full video

The World Series-winning outfielder may leave the Dodgers in free agency. Do the Red Sox make sense as a fit, given their need for a power-hitting outfielder? View full video