Fan_since_Boggs

Breaking news: my sources are telling me that Sale will not require TJ Surgery. Awesome. Back to the original plan: win a championship in 2020!

Since you're such an "expert" (a guy who uses BABIP without looking at Line Drive %) then you explain to me why the Yankees haven't played in a World Series game this decade despite having one of the highest payrolls in MLB year in and year out. Cashman is doing something wrong, no? If it isn't Cashman's fault, who should I blame? Divine intervention?

Do we really want to have a debate on JA Happ -- it is enough to make you want to puke. Since I don't want to have such an inane discussion, I'll only say (briefly) that Happ's FIP (with the Yankees in 2018) and declining K rate (with the Yankees in 2018) were two troubling signs among many. In addition to this, Happ profiles as the kind of pitcher that does begin to decline significantly beyond the age of 35. But this is what Cashman does, he makes bad judgments on starting pitchers and he has done this throughout his tenure with the Yankees. There is a reason why one of the top spending teams in MLB has not played in a World Series game in the current decade.

Nice fairy tale. In reality, only an incompetent general manager would pay Happ 17m per year and fail to see he was trending in the wrong direction. Happ: 83 ERA+, 0.3 WAR S.Gray: 154 ERA+, 4.2 WAR Corbin: 141 ERA+, 4.5 WAR Typical Brian Cashman. LOL. There is a reason why the Yankees haven't played a World Series game in the current decade.

After trading Price and Martinez. 1b: Dalbec 2b: Hernandez/Chatman SS: Bogaerts 3b: Devers C: Vazquez LF: Benintendi CF: Duran RF:??? DH: Ockimey/Shaw If the REd Sox are going to rebuild, they might as well give Ockimey a chance at DH, but only against RHP. Along with trading Martinez and Price, I guess the Red Sox trade Betts as well (or should they keep him and sign him long term?). I'm trading Chavis in a deal for a starting pitcher. Bradley = gone. While the lineup still looks pretty good, esp. if the Red Sox resign Betts, the starting rotation is obviously weak (assuming C.Sale needs TJ Surgery): Eavoldi Rodriguez ??? ??? ??? Maybe Houck takes one of the rotation spots? If you're rebuilding, maybe you make moves like that. I'm not sure, however, if the Red Sox see Houck as a long term bullpen arm or SP.

How about 15m and JD Martinez (I'm assuming he isn't opting out) to the Twins for a prospect? The Twins get Martinez at an affordable price and he replaces the much older N.Cruz. The Red Sox save money by moving Martinez's contract and get a quality prospect in return.

This is a good point. Happ sucks and he got 17m. Price should get at least 17m per year. And unlike Happ, Price is a World Series hero. That matters. It wasn't C.Sale who carried the starting rotation in the World Series, it was David Price. Thus, if the Red Sox kick in 42m, they should be able to move Price, as the acquiring team would then owe Price 18m per year. Obviously, you trade Price to a team with Playoff/World Series aspirations. I was thinking about the Brewers or Phillies. Price is a better fit for the NL at this stage of his career. Maybe the Cardinals. If I'm not mistaken, the Cardinals tried to sign Price when he entered free agency.

There were plenty of people who were shocked and critical of the Red Sox decision to resign Sale when they did. There were red flags last season, the injury, the declining velocity. To such skeptics, it made sense to let the season play out and see if Sale could stay healthy and regain his lost velocity. That didn't happen, and now this.

If Sale is gone and the Red Sox enter into a rebuild, the Red Sox should move Price in the offseason. The Red Sox would have to kick in around 36m to move Price, maybe even more? How about 42m? That would allow the acquiring team to pay Price 18m over the next 3 seasons. The more the Red Sox pay down Price's contract, the better prospect they can get for him. And if the Red Sox do a rebuild, they will fall under the luxury tax anyway.

Definitely. This is looking more and more like a huge Dombrowski blunder. If Sale needs TJ Surgery, you really have to rethink where the organization goes from here. Without Sale, a rebuild makes a lot more sense. . . .

I hope the Yankees play the Guardians in the first round while the Astros get the Wild Card winner. If that happens, the Yankees will not advance to the ALCS.

??? What top figure are you using? 236 million or something below that? I agreed with Moon's projection that had the Red Sox at 216m after Bradley Jr is dumped. That includes the arbitration contracts. That would leave the Red Sox with around 20m to spend in free agency.

We need to see more from Cashner as a relief arm, obviously, but if Cashner performs really well as a reliever maybe the Red Sox could sign both Cashner and W.Smith. It doesn't have to be one or the other. Maybe Cashner and W.Smith are the two bullpen upgrades for 2020 and then use Chavis as a trade chip for a SP. Duran in CF (although, I'm open to a low cost veteran for the first part of the season), Dalbec at 1b, Hernandez at 2b. Trade Bradley for some Double A reliever that had mediocre upside. While I like this plan, and it is a plan that would allow the Red Sox to stay below 237 m, the Red Sox will be dangerously thin at 2b. If Hernandez gets hurt like he always does, I guess Lin becomes the starter at 2b. I'm assuming Holt is gone.

Cashner looked pretty nasty coming out of the bullpen and picking up a save on Tuesday night. Now that Cashner have been moved to the bullpen, perhaps the Red Sox can get a read on his effectiveness as a relief pitcher and potential closer? He has the stuff of a closer (as well as the look of a closer). If Cashner performs well down the stretch in the pen, maybe the Red Sox resign him for a cheaper rate than what the Giants Will Smith will get on the free agent market. Smith is a little younger--30 years old, while Cashner will be turning 33 in less than a month. Smith will probably be more expensive, perhaps over 10 m per year, and he will likely get a longer contract than Cashner.

I don't see a problem with this. He hasn't looked great in the pen, he is going to be here next year as a starter (Cashner will not be here). Might as well move him back into the rotation and let him accumulate some innings before the season is over. The Red Sox need Eavoldi to come back strong next season.

WFAN's Francesa was back on the radio today. He has connections inside the Mets and Yankees organizations. He said the Mets never offered Stroman to the Yankees, that was a complete fabrication, and that the Mets don't like many prospects in the Yankees farm system. He also said that Cashman thought he would acquire Stroman and that the Mets sneaking in and trading for Stroman caught Cashman by surprise. I had a good laugh over the latter, thinking of how the Mets acquired the pitcher the Yankees wanted. Of course, the Yankees probably acquire Stroman if they offered D.Garcia, but Garcia was off the table.

I know about Nimmo's OBP, I think everyone does, but (1) he doesn't have much of a track record as a MLB player and (2) he seems to get hurt every year. His 2018 season was nice, but his 2019 season was discouraging prior to getting hurt. If you trade Betts for Nimmo and Matz, you are punting on the 2020 season. Nimmo is going to be considerable worse than Betts and Matz is a bottom of the rotation starter. That deal doesn't get the Red Sox anywhere.

This has got to be the dumbest trade proposal in the history of the internet. At least give the Red Sox something useful, like D.Smith, for example. Matz is already 28 years old, his ceiling isn't what it once was. He has durability issues too. The Mets pulled him from the rotation at one point this season. Nimmo is even more useless than Matz. The Mets are an unrealistic trade partner for Betts in any event.

I don't agree with this at all. The Red Sox probably expect Betts to sign with the highest bidder. But there will be very few bidders, and so the Red Sox have a really good chance of being the top bidder and they must know that. The Yankees aren't bidding on Betts. The Dodgers haven't been giving out these types of contracts. We can start eliminating a lot of teams from making serious bids on Betts. At the end of the day, we will be left with only a few teams that will compete for Betts in free agency. There were a limited number of teams interested in Harper and Machado and both were younger when reaching free agency. I think the Red Sox will let Betts test the free agent waters, let him see what he can get on the open market, and then the Red Sox will probably come in with the best offer.

Dealing Betts for Matz and Nimmo. LOL. There are just no words for such nonsense. . . . If the Red Sox are prepared to make that deal, they might as well give up and rebuild, and trade Betts to a team that can sign him long term and get some prospects for him. The Mets are not signing Betts long term and so they are not a realistic trade partner. The White Sox, for example, have that Machado money available and could be a fit. There are only a few teams in MLB that would make Betts a long term offer. But the Red Sox aren't trading Betts unless they are overwhelmed with an offer, which is unlikely. They have the resources and willingness to sign him long term. The Red Sox aren't a schizophrenic organization--they didn't sign Sale, Bogaerts, and Eovaldi so that they could tear it down several months later. Based on what they have done in the recent past, I would expect Henry to continue spending big money on this team. The Red Sox only need to stay below the 237 m mark and they can do that even after signing a free agent like Wheeler OR W.Smith. I also wouldn't be shocked if Henry goes over the 237 m mark sometime over the few seasons, but probably not next year.

Dalbec now with 2 HR in AAA. Dalbec has 70 power (at least) and I'm starting to think he could be an impact player together with his above average defense. If the Red Sox trade Dalbec, they better get a really good cost controlled SP for him--above average defenders at 3b with 70-75 power don't grow on trees. Let's say the Red Sox keep Dalbec and instead trade Chavis for a starting pitcher. Betts RF Benintendi LF Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Martinez DH Dalbec 1b Hernandez 2b Vazquez C Duran CF If the Red Sox trade Chavis, they become a little exposed at 2b with the injury prone M.Hernandez, but keeping Dalbec might be the best long term move. Sign closer W.Smith Trade Chavis in a package for a SP Trade Bradley for a RP

Excellent post. I think it is ludicrous that some people are even debating this. I'm pretty confident that the Red Sox are not. The economics didn't just appear out of thin air. The Red Sox saw this coming and continued to sign Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Sale. They are not entering a rebuilding phase now. Dewey, what do you think of the idea of signing W.Smith in the offseason? He would be the Red Sox new closer. Smith is generally effective and young enough. According to the math, the Red Sox could sign him and still remain under the 237 million mark. Once the Red Sox sign Smith, the rest of the bullpen falls in line with guys like Workman, Taylor, and Hernandez behind him. I would think that the odds are pretty good that either Barnes or Brasier has a solid comeback year next season, we know the nature of relief pitching and the up-and-down cycles on a yearly basis.

So let's pass on Wheeler, and sign W.Smith instead. Smith is the Red Sox closer next year, with Workman and Hernandez as the 8th inning guys, and Taylor and Brasier/Barnes as the 7th inning guys. The Red Sox can trade Bradley Jr. for a reliever, strengthening the Red Sox bullpen (and bullpen depth) even more. M.Walden is another arm. Arguably, that takes care of the bullpen, but the Red Sox still have a giant hole in the rotation. In-house options would include B.Johnson (who can never stay healthy), Velazquez (who sucks), and S.Wright (can't count on him). In other words, the in-house options are pretty lousy. I'm not sure what the Red Sox plan to do with T.Houck. Could the Red Sox put together a prospect package led by Dalbec and Mata OR Chavis and Mata for a really good cost-controlled starter? I would hate to trade Mata, but if I can acquire quality SP who is ready now and cost-controlled I would be willing to give him up. Of course, I would first try to acquire an SP via trade by offering up Dalbec or Chavis. I would only add Mata to the deal if the SP I get back warrants it.

Just thinking about what the Guardians wanted for Bauer and how Cashman blew another opportunity to put together a championship caliber team this year. Could the Yankees have acquired Bauer? Does this offer get it done--C.Frazier and B.Gardner OR M.Tauchman (Guardians decision) and D.Garcia for Bauer? The Guardians wanted outfielders and bats; hence, they acquired Puig (the rental) and Reyes in the trade. Interestingly, the Guardians traded away Frazier a few years ago and so they might not be all that high on him. The Guardians probably prefer Puig and Reyes over the Yankees OF options, but by including the pitching prospect D.Garcia, maybe the Guardians take the Yankees offer instead? Maybe. Of course, an offer like this never materialized because prospect hugger Brian Cashman would not include D.Garcia in trade talks. With Garcia off the table, the Padres offer of Puig and Reyes was more enticing than a Yankees offer built around Frazier. This is another example of Brain Cashman's inability to put together a championship caliber staff that could take the Yankees over the top.

Yeah, I think this could be a better strategy. Rather than invest the money in a SP like Wheeler, you spend less on the SP and more on bullpen upgrades. That might be a better approach. It is an approach that reduces risk--spread the money around rather than invest it in one SP. In this scenario, the Red Sox would sign W.Smith. Smith would take over the closer role. Signing Smith does solve a lot of problems. You then have Workman and Hernandez for the 8th. Taylor and Barnes/Brasier for the 7th. That would give Cora a lot of lefty/righty options.