moonslav59

We do have injuries, but most should be back for the playoffs. I'm hopeful we can peak when it counts.

MAybe, but we had too many different players to make a good scenario comparison.

I'm not sure where this is coming from, but I have played the game and do more than "lip service" to the intangibles of the game and to aspects not captured by stats and data. For example, I'm a huge believer in the importance of a catcher's relationship with the staff that goes well beyond the CERA argument. BTW, I do not intentionally "hint at knowing more", but I guess by providing data to support my point of view, it probably comes off that way, at times. When someone makes a claim that so and so has been in a slump, but the guy has been over .800 for the past 7 days, 14 days or 28 days, I'm going to say what I feel needs to be said.

Yeah, it was scary, but I still maintain that if Porcello and HRam had their 2016 seasons in 2015, Ben would have been given at least another year's life.

I totally agree, and the thought that guys like Sale don't come available very often. (Then again, Quintana and Gray were recently traded in what I thought were actual "underpays".)

Hard to know: they were a .552 team before the streak began.

Or, a stranglehold on the 2 slot would work, too.

I was joking, but some have hinted at knowing more, because they played the game at a somewhat higher level than the rest of us.

It's shocking to me that some seem to feel trading away all the prospects listed below is not going to have a major impact on our long term outlook. I have no issue with the argument that we might be smart over the next few years, draft better than we have in the past with picks below number 20, sign a few more good international free agents with less money to spend, and do better with our free agent signings than Pablo, HRam and Price. Maybe we can acquire enough good prospects to make another Sale-type trade before 2020 arrives. Sure, any of this is possible, however we may need close to all of this happening to be HIGHLY COMPETITIVE in 2020 or 2021. To me, that is improbable, if not highly improbable. Recently traded prospects listed by highest ranking on soxprospects.com 1 Yoan Moncada 3 Anderson Espinoza 3 Manuel Margot 3 Garin Cecchini 5 Michael Kopech 6 Javier Guerra 7 Luis Ax. Basabe 9 Maurice Dubron 12 Travis Shaw (not a prospect when traded) 12 Wendell Rijo 13 Logan Allen 13 Pat Light 18 Luis Aj. Basabe 20 Carlos Asuage 21 Victor Diaz 24 Josh Pennington 30 Aaron Wilkerson 40 Jose Almonte Now, clearly some of these guys have fallen off since the trade or had fallen off before the trade, but the sheer magnitude of top prospects traded makes it next to impossible to believe that none of these guys would have made made a positive impact on 2020 and 2021. Chances are several would have. None of us "cliff-dwellers" have ever said we did not want to trade any of these guys. We had some duplicated value that almost necessitated some players being traded away at some point. Just abou all these guys were traded away for players under team control for 2-3 years only. There's never been an emptying of the farm like this under Henry's reign. Theo always tried to balance prospect trades and spread them out over many years. Ben may have held onto too many prospects and for too long, but I for one, find it confusing that so many posters seem to feel like it just takes "smart management" to be able to recover from such a massive loss of young talent. It would have been hard, not impossible but hard, to recover, even if the rules haven't changed. It's much harder knowing the rules have changed significantly.

Hmm. I am still not convinced that the situation is dire. I'm not totally convinced there will be a cliff, but I'm pretty sure there will one. "Nobody pretends to know for sure" - this is simply not true and you know it. No, I don't "know it" at all. This is so far from the truth. For one thing, I'm sure there is a wide range of what some might even call a "cliff". To me, a cliff mean we will not be highly competitive. We will not have high expectations going into the 2021 season, and maybe even 2020. That doesn't mean we might not squeak into the playoffs by over performing. That doesn't mean I am setting the standards low. I thought we'd be highly competitive in 2014 and 2015, so even though we ended up finishing in last place, I would not have called those years "cliff years" before they started. My point is, there is a lot of gray area just on the definition of what a "cliff" is. Secondly, I have not heard one poster say they are sure we will hit a cliff. We will still be one of the highest paid teams in 2020 and 2021, but as 2012, 2014 and 2015 showed that does not guarantee a highly competitive team in reality. We could probably have a 1,000 page debate on whether we were or were not "highly competitive" going into or during those 3 last place seasons. Extending that to conjecture over this team's position in 3-4 years is certainly not anything anyone can say "for sure". The game of team building has had some rule changes. Changes that effect all MLB teams, not just the Sox. Yes, some, but many are clearly only going to affect teams straddling the Luxury Tax line and who would overpay for draft picks that fall in the draft due to signability issues for poorer teams. The international FA signing pool changes will affect higher spending teams. We've already seen many rich teams trade prospects for bonus slot money. Of course, that is a change from before. Rules have been changed that affect poorer teams, like forcing them to spend more on their player payroll budget, but that pales in comparison to all the rules that were designed to make rich teams have a harder time acquiring top young talent. With good management and strategy I see no reason why the Sox can not continue to compete. You see "no reason"? All I can say is "WOW!" And it is not like the abundance of Sox prospects that graduated and others who were used in deals have yielded an abundance of championships. In other words, being a rich team does not guarantee a f***ing thing. It certainly helps a lot. There are times when poor teams compete and even win, but spending makes a huge difference. HUGE! My primary question remains unanswered. We've answered. You just don't like the answers.

The Yanks have not come close to their 2014 off season signing barrage, but they may again someday soon. That winter, they signed 4 players who had declined QOs (Kurda, McAnn, Beltran & Ellsbury).

Yes, but if you want to view it that way, then combine both contracts and the net cost is slightly lessened: instead of being $20.6M x 4, it would be $19M x 5.

But, look what the Dodgers replaced Greinke with. They still keep spending and spending while saying they are going to slow down with their budget. Just their trades during the year have added a ton of contractual costs- even though short term. Granderson Yu Darvish Last winter, they paid large and long to keep Jansen ($80M/5 for a closer) and Turner ($64M/4). They also signed Rich Hill to $48M/3. Not that Rich is an even replacement for Greinke, but they still spent super large last winter. The winter before, they gave Brett Anderson a QO and signed: Kazmir $48M/3 Maeda $25M/8 Kendrick $20M/2 Y Sierra $30M/6 Plus, Utley $7M/1, Howell $6M/1, Blanton $4M/1 The Yanks have let many of their big contracts walk, but many retired or were way over the hill to begin with.

Porcello was not on the "giant contract" year one, so it's not "33%". It's been 25% of the whole deal and over 50% of the giant deal, so far. The rest I agree on.

Great points. I do think Bogey walks, and like EMP suggests maybe trading a good player, like we did with Nomar, will need to be done. It's hard to pull the trigger on a trade like that when you are trying to compete. Of all our younger stars and good players, it does seem Bogey is at the top of the that list. His stock is not as high as before, however, so getting back top talent might be lessened if we do it this winter. I get the feeling we'll keep all our top young ML players at least until just before their last year.

Haven't you heard? Only people who have played the game truly know what it's about.

So, if we continue to draft the way you think we have, we should be great in 3-4 years, right? Many of those picks have been traded for key pieces over the years. For example, Kopech- a comp pick- helped us get Sale. What's interesting is that Kopech was a comp pick for losing Ellsbury who was a comp pick for losing OCab. This comp pick system was a gift that often kept on giving and giving. To think trading Nomar away had something to do with us still having Sale for 2 more years tells a big story.

I'd probably rather have our schedule, even with the 4 games vs HOU to end the season and 3 at BAL. The Yanks play,,, 3 vs MN 1 vs KCR 6 vs TOR (3H 3A) 3 vs TBR 1 vs BAL We have 3 at Cincy which is probably easier than 3 vs TOR at home. We end with 3 vs TOR and 4 vs HOU at home: Ours: 4 vs HOU 3 vs TOR 3 @ CIN 3 @ BAL 1 @ TBR

I'll never say that. I'm usually a believer in the saying that "Leopards don't change their spots," but I hope JF gives me reason to rethink that philosophy. I'm not afraid to say that I have seen fewer blunders over the last few weeks and a willingness to change line-up to appease our better hitters. It doesn't mean I'm walking back on my beliefs. It just means things change in baseball, sometimes on a dime. I still think JF is an idiot when it comes to anything other than pitching. The recent ample size is small, and batting Vaz second today, could have been random luck. I do not think JF will be fired this winter, even if we get swept again, so we'll have a large enough sample size to see if JF can change his spots. I hope he does, because that will mean we have a better chance of winning.

We'll have less picks than we had before. We'll have lower picks than we had before. It's also supposed to be much harder for rich teams to hoard international FAs. Those three facts do not mean we can or won't produce some major league players or "chips", but it is going to be much more difficult than before. Plus, it's not like we did really great with our drafts, if you took away all out comp picks and picks of players who fell down to us due to their unsignability factor. The fear is that increasingly more difficult rules are going to make it much much harder to keep stockpiling prospects. The lining up of most of our better players' final contract years at a time when our farm may not "be there" to fill in the gaps seems to point to a "cliff" or at least a brief but significant downturn. Nobody pretends to know for sure, but surely you can see that a case can be made that things will get worse when we start losing one or two of our big guys due to free agency. Want some "math?" Here's a look at just one area that has chanced: loss of comp picks for losing type A and B free agents. There are still some comp picks, but they are much rarer and can only be obtained by making qualified offers. (We probably won't have any of those in time to draft a player that can help in 2020 or 2021. Since 2005, here's our best non comp pick draft picks and comp picks (in red): 2005: 1 Ellsbury 1 Hansen 1 Buccholz 1 Lowrie 1 Bowden 2 Egen 4 Blue 2006: 1 Place 1 Bard 1 Johnson 1 Clay 2 Masterson 3 Bates 3 Cox 4 Still 2007: 1 Hagadone 1 Dent 2 Morris 3 Huntzinger 4 Providence 2008: 1 Kelly 1 Price 2 Gibson 3 Fife 3 Weiland 4 Hissey 2009 1 Fuentes 2 Wilson 3 Renfroe 4 Hazelbaker 2010 1 Vitek 1 Brentz 1 Ranaudo 2 Workman 3 Coyle 4 Cecchini 2011: 1 Barnes 1 Swihart 1 Owens 1 Bradley 2 Jerez 3 Weems 4 N Ramirez 5 Betts 2012: 1 Marrero 1 Johnson 1 Light 2 Callahan 3 maddox 4 Buttrey 2013: 1 T Ball 2 Stanki 3 Denney 4 M Smith 2014: 1 Chavis 1 Kopech 2 Travis 3 Cosart 4 McAvoy 2015: 1 Beni 3 Rei 4 Matheny 2016: 1 Groome 2 Chatham 3 Anderson 4 Dalbec 2017: 1 Houck 2 Brannen 3 Netzer 4 Thompson 5 Scherff Do the math: look at the red vs the black. Look at the drafts where we had no comp picks. Yes, we've had a few good picks beyond our comp picks. We even drafted Betts in the 5th round. Nothing is impossible, but it surely has gotten a heck of a lot harder to have drafts like 2005 and 2011. Our MO used to be to let big FAs walk, stockpile the comp picks and then go out and sign new FAs, some not type As or Bs or qualifying offer FAs to fill the gaps. We can't play that game at that level anymore. I'm not an expert on draft slot money allocations, but someone else could give you "math" on how drafting great players with the 26th pick, because they wanted big money and slipped down past poorer teams isn't going to happen very often with the new rules. It's a big change in the draft for richer teams. The international bonuses have been restricted as well. Sorry, I don't have the "numbers", but they have changed for the worse as well. Now, to your question, how many draft picks will we have in the next 3-4 years? Pretty much the same as everyone else, but with lower picks and with less picks per year than we've averaged since 2005 due to the loss of sometimes multiple comp picks. So, we had something like 40 picks last year, so my guess is we'll have about 120 picks in the next 3 years.

Great game! If Porcello could somehow keep this up... I loved seeing Vaz up second. JF is starting to show what I've been hoping to see for years. (I may have to begin reviewing my position to can his ass... I said "may"...) Betts with 2 hits. In his last 10 games, he's had 3 hits 3 times and 2 hits once. If he can heat up at just the right time... Seems this team is coming together at just about the right time.

I was responding to the claim that JF may end up winning a WS in 40% of his years and nobody fires someone for that. The 40% last place point was a counterpoint. Many are fired for that and have had a lot less resources to work with than JF. We've been a top 3 spending team in all of JF's years here. In general, I am okay with some last place finishes as long as we win rings, but I also said I have become spoiled. I also never meant to imply we just stand pat during those bad years and not try to improve the team, sometime by changing a manager. I actually said that back before our first ring, I used to say I'd give up 10 last place finishes for 1 ring, but once we won once, I got spoiled. I'm not a person who always blames the manager- really, I'm not. Here are some examples: 1) I defended Grady Little on the "Pedro choice". 2) I was probably the last guy wanting Bobby V to get canned. 3) I loved Tito. I had some beefs with his over-loyalty thing, but never came close wanting him fired until the great implosion and my belief that he lost control. I realize he had great distractions going on in his life, and I wish we still had him over JF. 4) I've always thought JF was a very good pitching coach, and I was not against trying him as a manager. I gave him plenty of time on his learning curve, but I have seen little improvement in any areas beyond pitching.

I'm a believer in some sort of cliff existing. Unlike Kimmi, I think it might be 4 years away-not 3. I have not been against "every" DD move, and I don't know anyone who has been. I hated the Kimbrel & Pom trades but loved the Sale trade. I liked the Thornburg and Nunez deals and was okay with the Price signing. I don't mean to speak for Kimmi, she does fine on her own, but her main criticism has been the vast totality of DD's deals and not all of them. The Kimbrel and Pom deals have worked out well this year. Last year some were wondering. Nobody doubted those deals weren't going to help us for 3 years or so. Even if we don't hit a cliff, a term that is probably more subjective than the term "mental blunder", not having all those prospects will surely affect how good we will be, unless every one flops.

Well said, cp. I'm still very optimistic about this team despite watching Houston, LA and Cleveland totally dominate through stretches of this year. We've had some ups and downs, but I think we've kept my dream alive this season.

Nobody would project a cliff as long as Manny was under team control for much while longer, and there was no reason to believe we could not keep Papi indefinitely. There was no luxury tax and the draft, Int'l FA system and FA comp pick system actually helped us not hurt us.