jung

I'm sorry but I just don't want another knuckler heading for his forties. Bad enough we have to hear about the wind blowing out vs the wind blowin and and what it does to the pitch and needing a catcher just to catch the knuckler and on and on and on. Most of the knuclers are guys that somebody takes a chance on at short money. If you are the team that takes advantage of that opportunity...more power to you. If you are the team that is going to be the one that allows the knucker to cash in...look out!!!!

You make your own luck. Bad luck is typically a result of piss poor everything else.

Nobody here hates Ells....at least I don't think so. I do think that the folks that are going to have the most difficulty with Ells are going to be the folks that have expectations that he can repeat his big year and I just think that is an unreasonable expectation for him. If he got hurt less or if his performance did not fall off so much when he did get hurt then, I think those expectations would be realistic. However that is not the case. The first team that ends up signing him based on that expectation (and that is how it is going to work out) is IMO going to be very disappointed and will not be very happy with Ells as a result.

I was surprised that the Sox did not get forced to some number higher than $26.5 having been at 2/25. I do think it suggests that the Sox must have already been very close to/at the limit that teams had established for how much they were willing to spend for Dempster. That is only another .75m per year. You would think Dempster was holding out for three years or two years at about 4m more than the Sox offer of 2/25. You would almost prefer that the Sox make an offer and then if they really want somebody be forced to come back at a much higher number to get him. The Sox have had this annoying habit of late of making the market for players and with such a small increase to secure Dempster it would appear that they did it again here. There are of course some players you cannot get a second shot at. You get one shot to close them and if you don't you may find that some other team has demanded that the player and his agent not seek counteroffers from other teams. I certainly would not think Dempster would fall into that category though. Anyway they were already at 2/25 and avoided both three years and a significantly higher number than their original offer.

Your correct Bell. I don't see him recording a 4.35 era over 200 innings in here. I am not particularly optimistic that he can roll in here with a 4.5. I think it more likely that he falls below 5.00...but once he gets above 4.5, his innings are going to suffer as well.

4.35 and 200 innings is pretty optimistic for Dempster. If he produced those numbers he likely gets slotted between 1-3 not 4-5. If he established an ERA around 4.50 for 200 innings, the Sox would likely consider the deal a success. The problem is that if he were to get up around 5.00 for an era, the Sox have guys that can likely duplicate that for much less money. At this point, Demspter probably figures he could get 3 years from somebody and that he would be giving up money to take 2 years in Boston. That means the number for 2 years must be getting close to off the charts or the Sox are knuckling under on 3 years which would be a huge mistake. Even 2 years at huge money is a mistake cause you can likely get what Dempster will give them from the guys that are here now.

Ryan Dempster...oh wait

Plus he already turned down 2/25 so if it is two it has to be AT LEAST 2/29...hideous especially considering they have not signed the first arm yet to UN's point. And if it's three, stick a fork in me...I'm done.

Morning radio talking heads musing that Hamilton's agent is doing him a disservice...not creating enough buzz around his client which is creating something of a gap between what Josh wants and what teams are offering. don't think it is quite the year that some think it is for the everyday ballplayer. If Prince came out this year I don't think he gets the number of years he got from Detroit. I am not even sure Albert gets the number of years he got. I still think the early comment by the Rangers regarding the max years they would offer really put a damper on Hamilton dealings that he and his agent are having a very hard time overcoming which is in part why I think there is an opportunity here that you normally don't see. I said at the time that I was surprised that the Ranger's comment did not draw immediate fire from the players association.

Big brother is always watching MVP. If you stray to close to the trop I am sure it will be reported here.

I don't think there is any chance of Dempster coming here 07 unless they made him an offer he could not refuse and how stupid would that be???? Yet if I am not mistaken the other guys competing for his services are not the usual suspects that the Sox might want to cause difficulties. So I have to believe they are actually still pursuing him AFTER he turned down 2/$25. Yikes!

I respect your opinion LS but I would also suggest that you might want to think a little about whether a new thread is justified to make a comment. Not holding myself up as an example but I think I am up around 7,500 posts or something like that and I think I might have started a game thread cause nobody had started one and we were already into the 3rd inning. I'm not even sure about that but if I did it is the only thread I have ever started here. Nobody really beats us up about about straying off topic as long as it is not a total thread jack. There is almost always someplace to put something. Believe me the diligent observers here will find your posts and your comments.

I can easily believe Dempster wants to go NL...that makes more sense than anything. Again I would bet that if the Sox landed him they would have to make him an offer he simply could not refuse. How the hell much sense does that make?

I have to admit they have me completely stumped. If they do land on 3 years for Dempster that will mean that they made an all out effort to sign him. If somebody told me a year ago that they would sign Dempster I would probably say well....that makes sense. Dempster has been another one of those guys that had gotten under their skins and was going to end up a Red Sox player one day. But if you told me they would make an all out effort to sign him, I would have said you are out of your mind.

I don't think I have ever seen the board so uniformly upchucking at the prospect of the Sox signing a player. Probably means there is no in between on this one. Either he is going to totally bomb if we sign him or he and the Sox are going to make us all look like idiots. So far if anything it looks like Dempster is reeling the Sox in....not the other way round. I suspect the Sox really do not fit into his plans and if he does come here it will be on a deal he just cannot refuse. I think I will go slit my wrists now.

How often does this happen with the Sox. They fall in love with some guy and seem to stalk him from team to team until they finally land him by God. Never mind that he might not be worth landing...but they finally got their man. In Dempster's case it seems like they are going to stalk him till retirement. Agent must be laughing his ass off.

Good luck with that. You simply don't get that lucky in ML baseball except in the rarest of occasions. You certainly cannot plan for it. You think the Orioles planed on winning what was it....29 one run games last year? Of course not. Ells biggest problem is that if he is not perfectly and I mean perfectly healthy he does not produce serious numbers. His swing is seriously impaired when he is not perfect and he is not strong enough to just muscle the ball. How often is Ells perfectly healthy? You want to bet that both Lester and Lackey will have big years? How about the other ??? in the Sox rotation which by the way is still short one arm just to make five! As for attendance...you don't think this mess in this economy could cost them at least 2,500 in attendance per game at the gate if not 5,000 per game? Do you know how much money that is at their ticket prices plus concessions? Just 200,000 attendees at the gate is like wiping out 5-6 home games. 400,000 at the gate is like wiping out 10-11 home games. This is a team that has not seen much money flow to the bottom line in the last couple of seasons. A low payroll could see more money flow to the bottom line but once fans stop coming it is much more difficult than people think it is to bring them back. People just get used to spending that money on other things. In addition, if that snowball gets rolling downhill the wrong way into a perception that it will be years plural before they are really back to competing, then the whole house of cards comes tumbling down. The plan all of the years of JH's ownership has been to keep prices at their peak by squeezing out more seating on a very tight schedule. The Sox have added seating at Femway only at rates that would not impact and swing the value proposition toward the fans. That has allowed them to keep the perceived value high, has kept the advanced ticket sales high and has kept ticket prices high. That has been the formula. They were never going to move out of Fenway. Where else could they just add seats as they saw fit. However that house of cards comes tumbling down, if the demand for seats starts going the wrong way. They MUST have strong demand particularly in season seats and advanced sales. Without them the whole formula falls apart and very quickly.

That dooms them to buckets and buckets of empty seats next year and I don't believe for a minute that the Sox brass would "plan" around that. Which is my point...they refuse to believe they are actually and should be in rebuild mode. But they can have their cake and eat it to if they are smart about it. Nobody is getting long term deals so far this year from anybody so I don't even know where that is coming from.

Dempster's age combined with the AL East is what makes this deal hard to envision. He isn't going to take one year in the AL East as correctly pointed out....and 12.5 per for two is already to much money. He likely wants a nice cushy two or even better three year deal with some team where he won't have such a tough time...yet the Sox just don't seem to want to get it through their thick skulls. I just don't know what to think anymore. The Keystone Kops strike again. In all likelihood Dempster will get 3 years from some team at a lower per annum for the right team....a nice cushy job is what he is lookin' for I imagine.....slumber his way into retirement.

Well they already offered him 12.5 per for 2. Ya' gotta' think he is likely looking for something like at least $2m more per year on a two year deal. That's 14.5 per for two years and a $29M total. 14.5 for 1 year would have been more like it. Honestly I don't see how they can justify him for 2 years without gagging. I suppose I could see them attempting to get him to bite at vesting deal for the 3rd year.

Well that rumor is posted in this thread and makes sense. They were already going to overpay him on a two year deal and he balked at that. Where do they go from there? Since they are still talkin' to him it makes sense that they are going to be left wrestling with 3 years...yikes!

three years....three years of Dempster....A one year overpay might have been palatable...a two year overpay had me gaggin' but at least he is some sort of a pitcher...three years!!!!...Holy Mother of God!

Well one thing you can pretty sure of I think...Bill James must think Dempster is wonderful. Either that or the FO is misinterpreting the information they are getting from James. All by way of saying that either the FO knows James likes him or thinks he does. As much as ignoring James was highly publicized I don't wonder if the Sox are now overemphasizing James projections for players.

Damn I forgot about Uehara which could work out pretty good for us. Without much help coming for the rotation the pen is going to need all the help it can get. I don't envy them their position though. Probably going to end up with their arms draggin' again this year.

I would believe that it is the med issue specifically the hip that is holding up Napoli. However what did all of that negotiating save the Sox with regard to Drew? In his case it was the shoulder right? I think Drew successfully danced around that issue for almost the entire time he was here even with all of that negotiation. I honestly think the only way to deal with these sort of issues is in the base contract. Sign the guy based on what you think he is worth, include the risk factor if there is one that relates to an existing injury and be done with it. All this dancing around gets them nothing. The only one of these contracts that has put something tangible in the Sox pocket has been the Lackey contract as I recall.