I don't see the "don't see them competing" comment making any sense. They are already competing.
If we were to go out the rest of the season at the winning clip from last year (.667) we would win just over 100 games, I think 101 to be exact. Do we look like we are going to go out the rest of the season at .667? If we go out the rest of the season at the Yankee's clip from last year (.617, not a bad winning percentage at all) we would win 94 games for the year.
The Rays can pitch and they have that miserable dungeon that nobody knows how to play in but them. Their home record in 2018 was .630 and they will likely improve on that a little and will likely improve their road record a good deal. Pitching tends to work everywhere a team plays.
The Yankees can hit and they have that shoebox they play in that nobody knows better how to play in but them. They played to a .654 at home last year. Currently at .533 at home. That will likely improve some. At the end of the day the Yankees might be easier for us to get past than the Rays will be because the Rays pitching will be more reliable and that dungeon they play in is a miserable place to play for every visiting team.
I have not posted up our 2019 winning percentage as its just too ridiculous at the moment. But we won home games last year at a rate of 7:10. That is a staggeringly good home record. I am not convinced we have anything like that in us this year. We are giving up too may bases for one thing and we are giving up ground that will make it hard to get all the way back to the top of the AL East pyramid this year given the competition.
So I would contend that it is without question a competition between all three teams in the East with the likelihood that only two teams will make it into the final 5. If I had to guess, we get past one of them but not both of them.