BeepBeepYoureDumb

Yeah, I agree he shouldn't command 3/45 but unfortunately in a world where Werth got as much as he did and K-rod got as much as he did and so on and so forth annnnnnyyything can and probably will happen. lol

Glad we agree. Actually, Gagne is the perfect example of why it's risky to hand out big money to relievers. Gagne was an excellent pitcher, with similarly great stuff and probably a deeper repertoire. Before coming to the Sox he was pitching brilliantly. A 213 ERA+ and a ~1.00 WHIP in a better hitters park in the same league. The Sox paid a hefty price in terms of talent to acquire him and his WHIP ballooned to ~1.80 and he was horrendous. Relievers are sketchy at best. Ok, so this doesn't get too tense, let's play a fun game. I'm honestly not trying to have a big pissing contest here or whatever. Anyways, on to the game. Name the players(both are relievers): Player A: G: 69 71 IP 1.90 ERA 9.2 K/9 Player B: G: 58 59 IP 2.32 ERA 9.0 K/9 Those two guys are my top choice for closer if it isn't Papelbon. Get back to me on that or let me know and I'll give in and tell ya my mystery man crushes But about Aceves and Albers, I think if Albers can sustain his newfound K-rate there isn't much of an argument against bringing him back if the price is right. I like him right where he is as far as his role is concerned. I think Aceves could be used more consistently as a set up guy, but as far as promoting either to closer ehhh no thanks. Also, I don't think Dan Bard was moved out of the starter role because of any reason other than his stuff played better out of the pen. Since he left UNC for the Sox it was talked about by many scouts how a change to the 'pen would do his professional career a lot of good. His reputation as a "head case" was earned when he struggled in the minors a little bit in save situations, but considering the pressure of pitching in Boston and how well he's done here in the majors, I think that's been somewhat dispelled. Learning to pitch in a new role is a bit of an adjustment at any level, I think people were a bit premature in labeling him a head case after blowing a few minor league saves. I think he's shaken any notion of mental midgetry by now. Trying to pretend we know what is going on in a players head by looking at on field results is tricky territory. Ask Clay Buchholz. He was a huge head case in '08, right? Now? Not so much. Well, the way I see it, we've got four guys penciled into the rotation for next year: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Lackey. We could very well end up re-signing Bedard, which wouldn't get in the way of any other signing most likely, but whether or not that happens depends on how healthy Bedard is. I don't think the Red Sox will go into next year with Wakefield penciled into a rotation spot and Matsuzaka will likely not be ready to pick up a ball until July at the earliest. He's going to be on the same time table as Johan was this year, and he still isn't close to pitching. That's a rehab assignment that will take some time. He may have seen his last days as a Red Sox. And as you said, this isn't the Rays, we can afford to add to the team where ever there is a need in most cases. I count four dependable pitchers who can be counted on to fill a rotation slot next year. We will find a fifth somewhere. It may be Bedard if he can prove healthy and be signed for a reasonable price. I'm betting that one way or another, they will shell out a least a little dough to plug the 5th spot. I agree we can afford Pap and he may be back, I'm just saying, there will be a market for him outside of the Sox and if we lose out, there are options.

What makes you say that? Do you have some unique insight as to what Papelbon is looking for on the FA market? Since he took the job as closer he's talked not only of his desire to go year to year and make top dollar, but also of his responsibility to other closers to set the market. Two things matter to Papelbon when it comes to finding a new team: the 1st and the 15th. As in the days of the month on which will be paid. Who ever cuts the biggest check will get him, that simple. The Dodgers, Cardinals, White Sox, Nats, and possibly Phillies or Diamondbacks will be in the market. What makes you think the Sox will be his only suitor? I think he's probably less valuable to the Red Sox than a number of other teams out there, although, like I've said, it's plenty likely he re-signs with the Sox.

Brewers have Axford. Angels have Walden. I think both of those teams are committed to those guys. EDIT White Sox is a good call though

There will be a market for Papelbon. The Dodgers, Cardinals and maybe a few other teams will have a need. After the Soriano disaster I highly doubt the Yankees pay another big name reliever, as much as I'd like it.

I feel like pulling a Peter Griffin in here.

http://nyyfans.com/ Go there. Go be a yankee fan. Nobody likes a traitor. GASP Root for your original team.

I wish

I think if Albers can sustain this years boost in k/9 he could be a legitimate answer in 7th/8th innings. I don't think you trust him enough to not bring someone from outside the organization to help with set up duties, but should Papelbon leave, he's definitely worth keeping around until he proves this increase in wiffs is a mirage.

Also, I think the dodgers, cardinals, and maybe the phillies and diamondbacks could be in the market for a closer. I don't think the Sox will be his only suitors.

Yeah, I just think you're underrating the affects an increased conditioning/training regimen can have on a pitchers consistency. For any pitcher success is all about consistent release point and being able to repeat the delivery. Remember how much this was talked about when Beckett broke out in '07? If a guy can't repeat his delivery consistently, that's usually the result of sub-par conditioning or sometimes an injury the player is concealing and trying to pitch around. Usually though, it's just that the conditioning isn't where it should be. Pap's delivery over the past couple years has been all over the place and I think he stepped up his off season routine to curb the problem. If you look at his first two years as closer (easily his best years IMO) his WHIP was 0.776 in '06 and 0.771 the following year. His BB/9 in '06 was 1.7 and 2.3 in '07. Those numbers spiked in the following years and in 09-10 his whip was in the 1.20 territory and BB/9 was 3+. This year his BB/9 is back in the 1+ range and his WHIP is back under 1.00. Consistency rules. He's also the kind of guy who thrives on movement. I remember Pedro talking about how his release was the key to the movement on his fastball. He brought the ball past his ear and released farther out in front of his body than most pitchers. That caused his crazy tailing movement. Pap has a different delivery, but I think he also has a release point that is later than most guys and hitting that consistently is what makes him so dominant. If there were a serious "kink" in his delivery and not something subtle like release point I think Ferrell would have found it while he was the pitching coach. He was a pretty attentive dude and I think he did a great job all around while he was here. From the Herald: "According to manager Terry Francona, Papelbon’s turnaround can be traced to better command of his fastball. But Papelbon credits a more consistent delivery, pointing to more diligent preparation with strength and conditioning coach Dave Page. 'I feel better this year at this stage of the season than I have in seven past seasons," said Papelbon, a free agent at season’s end who has put himself in line for a multiyear contract with an annual salary comparable to Rivera’s ($15 million). “My delivery is pretty sharp right now, which allows me to have fastball command. The ability to keep my delivery, on a nightly basis, is what makes or breaks me.'”

Certainly is. I wouldn't go so far as to label Bedard a 5 inning pitcher. I wouldn't call Lester or Beckett a 6 inning pitcher. Both of those guys have been fortunate to have had much better health over the course of their career than Bedard. I think you're selling him a bit short.

also, if you average that run from may and june out it probably comes out to about 5 2/3 IP per. I'll take that from my third starter all day.

Well, career averages like that can be somewhat misleading though. First off, lets call 5.7 about 5 2/3, thats fair, no? Getting into the sixth during your average start ain't half bad. Off hand, you got Lester or Becketts career averages? What about CC? Anybody, no matter how skilled, gets rocked and pulled in the 2nd or third 2 or 3 times a year. That can bring that average down over the course of a season or even a career. No doubt, he needs to jump that 200 inning mark before anybody would feel comfortable relying on him to hold down a rotation spot for 162, but the same could have been said of Beckett when he got here and I think most of his problems logging innings has been injury related. He doesn't have command issues or anything, he's looked fairly polished in his two starts for the Sox. If healthy, the guy will throw 100 pitches. With the command he's reputed to have and that he's displayed here so far, getting into the 7th won't be a problem.

Actually, if you look at his game logs, he's more than a 5 IP pitcher. We can work with 6 IP but even this year he's shown the ability to get deeper in games than people realize. Keep in mind, he's been on a pitch count since getting to Boston. In May and June he had a pretty nice run IP wise: 7 vs. TEX, 5 vs. CHW, 8 vs. SDP, 6 vs. MIN, 6.1 vs. BAL, 7 vs. TB, 5 vs. DET, 7 vs. LAAAAA, 6 vs. WSN, 7 vs. ATL With the control he exhibited in his first couple starts I think things are looking pretty good. Getting through 5 innings with 70 pitches the first time out and managing 5 IP again with 90 pitches in spite of a shoebox sized strike zone was nice to see. I think health is the only concern with this guy. He could be a Lester clone out there for us the rest of the way if we can keep him on the field. Also, shoulder injuries aren't the death sentence they used to be. I'm sure people in Stl were skeptical in '04 that Chris Carpenter could handle a big work load when they brought him in after not pitching at all the season prior and only logging ~70 innings the last time he was on the field in '02. He pitched 241 innings the next year in 2005. He lost a year and change to the same injury that took a full season from Bedard. Pitchers can come back from labrum injuries nowadays. We're certainly asking Bedard to be more than just our sixth starter down the stretch and with a significantly better career ERA+ mark than Beckett and a similar mark to guys like Sabathia and Verlander, if he's healthy, he can certainly be a huge pick up. I'm psyched. Prior to coming to Boston he talked about how Boston was one of his favorite cities to pitch in. If things go well, I wouldn't be shocked at a re-sign.