Spudboy

Red Sox Claim Juan Francisco Lol. Chubby 3rd basemen are popular on Yawkey way.

That's why I said that they had to give Lester a "no walk" price. Apparently they did not. He may eventually choose Boston. But the strong odds are that he will not. DUMB.

Not really. Fred is obsessed with the failure of Bradley and the slow progress of XB. Trading both would seem rash and even stupid unless the return was really good. We all have to lower our expectations ( as the PJ article suggests ) for prospects and allow them more time. XB should be fine sooner rather than latter. Bradley, who knows?

That was a good read. One thing that occurred to me while reading the article is that the examples used by the big league execs were both brought up to MLB with very little time spent at AAA. One player raked in 250 AB and was deemed "ready". This speaks to my point that players like XB, JBJ, Vasquez, etc., were promoted too soon. Maybe JBJ has spent more time in AAA in total. In any case, a full season at AAA is probably a good idea. If they struggle, let them stay there and work it out. There must be volumes of info on all prospects with laptops and devices in hand for every scout. That can't help when the kid comes up and the big league teams know what to throw him. Still, at some point a young hitter must face consistently superior pitching when he is promoted to the bigs. The talented and smart ones adjust. The dumb ones like Bradley and Middlebrooks don't.

If both the Giants and Sox are offering about 5/90 why would Sandoval not return to SF???

Lester to meet with Braves on Thursday. Lol.

With all due respect SFF, I don't subscribe to the idea that a batter will put up bigger numbers at Fenway. I remember looking at Adrian Gonzalez's swing and spray charts and almost blowing a load. He his "okay" relative to his NL numbers at Petco but was never the big boomer that we all expected. There are other examples, too. Maybe he could be more effective here but I would never hang my hat on it. Now Beltre I would get exited about.

Hayward to the Cards and Martin has signed a 4 year deal with the Jays.

I covered this stuff last week in a post. I was speculating as to what the Sox would do at 3rd if they fail to land Sandoval or Headley. Obviously I am aware of what the Sox are currently doing and of the ongoing issue of Craig's health.

This is pretty much what I have been envisioning. One difference is that I had the Sox resigning Badenhop in the pen. Although I had Layne slotted there too so I was not sure what to do. I have suggested either Graig at 3rd or maybe Betts. No one seems to like my idea, though. I had also mentioned Masterson several times. No one like that idea, either! Again, I like the idea of using in-house assets to plug an area of need. It's good management and makes both good baseball and business sense. Why waste money on Panda when we have someone who can play that position almost as well and eventually better and at a much lower cost. This is as close to Republican as I will ever get!

Boy did Lars Anderson fade to obscurity. He bounced around in 4 or so organizations and now is a free agent without much hope of anything good happening. That's what can happen to a prospect.

Ultimately, it comes down to an individual team's needs.

That is a good target for Betts. A good top of the order bat with decent speed. While I am reluctant to say any player is "can't miss", Betts has adjusted at every level so far. And that includes the Majors. The kid can flat out hit and is rarely fooled by big league pitching. This is his primary value. hit, get on base, get the line moving. He is far from a finished product at 21. He is not a highly skilled defensive player at 2nd his "natural position" and is just beginning to learn CF on the big stage, not in the Gulf Coast league. I'm hoping to see him at 3rd or CF with one or two OF traded and Castillo in RF or in the Minors. For the record, I don't see Betts by himself landing a true number one pitcher. Highly regarded prospect are not rare or hard to come by. Consistently high performing starting pitching is always at a premium.

From Fangraphs: Marlins Discussing Record Deal With Giancarlo Stanton by Dave Cameron - November 14, 2014 Back in September, I ruminated on when an extension for Giancarlo Stanton might look like, and a run through the numbers gave me an estimate of $300 million over 12 years. The Marlins, reportedly, are negotiating a deal with Stanton that could be worth as much as $325 million over that same time period, so it seems like the estimates in that post weren’t too far off. Except they kind of were, because I just eyeballed the projections and decided to be a little conservative, so the calculations were based on Stanton starting out from a +5 WAR level. Stanton’s actual Steamer projection is for 2015 is up on the site now, and it has him as a +6 WAR player for 2015, suggesting I maybe underestimated his expected value by a full win each year. Here’s the same table from that post, just starting from a +6 WAR base instead of a +5 WAR platform. Year Age WAR $/WAR Value 10% Discount 2017 27 6.0 $7.00 $42.00 $37.80 2018 28 6.0 $7.40 $44.40 $39.96 2019 29 6.0 $7.70 $46.20 $41.58 2020 30 5.5 $8.10 $44.55 $40.10 2021 31 5.0 $8.50 $42.50 $38.25 2022 32 4.5 $8.90 $40.05 $36.05 2023 33 4.0 $9.40 $37.60 $33.84 2024 34 3.5 $9.80 $34.30 $30.87 2025 35 3.0 $10.30 $30.90 $27.81 2026 36 2.5 $10.90 $27.25 $24.53 That projection values his 10 free agent years at a total of $390 million, and doesn’t include the payments he’s basically already guaranteed through arbitration. Toss in another $35 million for the two seasons before the 10 year extension kicks in, and this would suggest a value of $425 million, $100 million more than the Marlins are reportedly offering. Yeah, I know, it sounds insane. I don’t think Stanton’s worth $425 million either. For one, the aging curve is probably not aggressive enough, especially for a guy his size with a history of knee problems. If we start his decline phase a couple of years earlier, having him drop from +6 WAR to +5.5 WAR at age-28, then the trickle-down has him end up at $313 million for the 10 free agent years, which would put him around $350 million over the life of the deal. Still a bit more than the rumored price, but definitely closer, and probably a bit more reasonable. The other key we haven’t talked about is a potential opt-out, and how that might affect the valuation. Opt-outs are a way of giving the player non-monetary value in exchange for a lower AAV, and if the Marlins include one in an extension for Stanton, it could help them drive salaries down. Given the Marlins history of selling off players not too long after signing them, I’m guessing Stanton will demand either (or both) a no-trade and an opt-out, giving him the leverage to decide where he goes if he wants to get out of the deal. If the opt-out is early enough in the deal, making Stanton’s commitment to the Marlins far shorter, then it could give him enough additional value to take less than the $30 million AAV he’s pretty clearly worth. We’ll do a full rundown on the deal when it’s done and the details are known, but it sounds like Stanton’s going to get a monster contract, and he deserves it.

I may become a fan of Abreu after I see him play a bunch more. As for the other two, My observations are not limited and are valid. None of them are superstars, yet. I have seen way too much sloppy play by Puig and Cespedes to consider them upper tier players. I think that everyone makes too much of the highlight reel plays and don't look at the bulk of their performances when assessing their overall talent. And again, the defensive skills ( other than Eglesias ) are far from polished. I see a lot of unnecessary basket catches in the same games as I see poor judgment of fly balls, bad routes, and botched plays. I can't say that about a group of players from any other country.

I'm not buying the idea of Stanton staying in Miami until he is signed to that mega-deal. I'll believe it when it happens. Supposedly the two side have discussed 10/300. I wonder if this is factual? If so, did the Marlins make that offer? And if so, why has Stanton not jumped to sign there? For the record. I also don't buy the idea that Stanton necessarily wants to be on a contending team every year. He'd be stupid to turn that kind of money down. If he does sign with them I hope that he has the forethought to build a home on stilts because a lot of Miami will be under water in another 15 or so years.

I meant no harm in my comment Pal. I just feel that most of the Cuban players that I have seen, including some of the ones you have mentioned, do not have refined skills. Especially when playing defense. They may be very good athletes but non of them are what I deem superstars at this point. Maybe Abreu can put up gaudy numbers for a few more years and he can be a superstar. Certainly Puig, Cespedes, and Castillo are not there yet. Again, just my opinion based on what I have seen, not read.

I really don't want to start a political discussion since that is always bad on this board and we don't need the acrimony. However, I don't understand why the U.S. does not have normal relations with Cuba by now. The guys in power in Cuba are really stupid. And so are the American politicians.

I certainly agree that by virtue of his speed that Victorino is superior in some ways. Mostly because he can play CF if needed. I don't really care much about most defensive metrics for reasons that you and I have discussed. This is clearly a case of believing what my eyes allow me to see which is Gold Glove like talent in right field by Markakis. I'm not knowledgeable about the extent of his injuries. However, he has played a crap load of games for someone with injuries. When healthy he seems to be a great RF. Even if his OPS dips for a year or so. He has never been a power hitter anyway. One year at 23 HR is not the norm for him. None of it matters. The Sox are not in play for his services anyway. I just saw an article about his negotiations with Baltimore and was taken by how cheap he is going for. With the uncertainty and shlock the Sox have in their outfield I began to wonder "what if?".

I fixed that for you.

Still, Markakis would be the best defensive player in the Sox outfield ( assuming that Bardley is not there ). And I do not really have the confidence in all of the metrics that seem to indicate somehow that he is only or has recently been replacement level. That is nonsense to me. But it's a non-issue because the Sox have no interest.

It's hard for me to believe that Nick Markakis is likely going to "settle" for 4/40 -4/48 in resigning withe the O's. I'm also dismayed at the opinion that Markakis is a below average fielder. I have no idea how that idea got started although I suspect that what I see as flawed defensive metrics may have something to do with it. Absurd. The guy is consistently a very good defensive outfielder. I still think that the Sox outfield is a total mess. Other than the absence of big power, I think that Markakis would be a great fix with the Sox. He plays very good defense in RF and never looks lost at Fenway. He is a LHH. He has a good on base skills and is reasonably productive. I know that it's likely that he signs with Baltimore again. I just see the Sox outfield as a jumbled mess of malcontents, aging, injured veterans, platoon hitters, and under performing or unproven rookie types. Even with the great promise of Betts. I see Cespedes as gone at some point. I think Victorino's best days are probably behind him. Castillo is unproven. My Binky Nava does not hit lefties very well. Craig is a mystery. Bradley needs to learn how to hit in AAA or with another team. If I'm the Sox I take a look at signing this proven AL East player at what would seem to be very reasonable terms. A 4 year deal on a 31 year old RF of this pedigree would seem to be a good move both defensively and offensively. Of course it won't happen.

Lol. From MLB Trade Rumors: "Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is expected to receive a bonus that will absolutely shatter the previous record for an amateur player — international or domestic — and intrigue surrounding him only figures to grow in the coming months. Here’s the latest on the 19-year-old phenom… Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel has an outstanding breakdown of not only Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala yesterday, but of the puzzling, seemingly inexplicable way in which he came to leave Cuba. McDaniel writes that Moncada was seemingly granted permission by the Cuban government to leave the country for Guatemala and is free to return and leave again as he wishes (a bizarre phenomenon also noted earlier this month by MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez). Beyond that, Moncada is being represented by a CPA from St. Petersburg who has never negotiated a baseball contract before and will not enlist the help of any veteran MLB agents. In fact, two agents from the Boras Corporation attempted to attend Moncada’s showcase and were not only denied access, but escorted off the premises by armed guards, McDaniel reports. Moncada’s agent has no desire to make this a story about himself and therefore was not named, McDaniel adds." Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!! Boras agents escorted away by armed guards!!! This sounds sort of like an old Chevy Chase movie!

In the Hope against Hope department, Edes says that Lester and his agents are due to speak with Sox ownership "within hours". But then he and his agents are off to Chicago to talk with Theo. At this point if the Sox are really serious about bringing Lester back, they should make a "no walk" offer. In sales terms this means that the Sox offer should be sufficient to prevent Lester from further testing the FA waters as in Chicago. Get it done now because letting him leave town again is a loser move that lessens the Sox chances of signing him. I'm not a Sox Front Office "Fanboy". Nor am I one that will constantly bitch about them being cheap and stupid. However, the Sox have misplayed the Lester issue big time. This is probably their last chance to make good.

Welcome back.