Dojji

OK, cool. The ball is pretty much in SD's court IMHO. Everyone knows we want AG. The question really is whether the Padres are willing to countenance a deal like that at a price Theo will pay.

The Yankees can probably stop us from getting one guy in any given offseason. If the Yankees let Damon and Matsui both walk we have no shot at Holliday because that's probably the guy they don't let us beat them to. However, they could make Lackey that guy instead in which case we might have a crack at Holliday.

If by that you mean the new Padres GM's FO.

I'm not sure they are. Especially because Albert Pujols' own contract is coming due after the 2011 season. They're going to want to make sure they have plenty of bullets in reserve for THAT battle. Probably. even if you could get Adrian Gonzalez, I'm pretty sure Carl Crawford will be a Ray for at least one more year. If we fail to get Bay or Holliday this offseason and wind up with an older LF on a one year deal though we've got a good crack at Crawford in the 2011 season.

I wonder if the Rockies would consider moving Todd Helton. There's quite a bit of logic to a move like that at this point,. While Helton isn't a traditional power hitting 1B anymore he's a modern Wade Boggs in terms of being a tough out, would beat Lowell by several orders of magnitude offensively and defensively. Meanwhie his already cumbersome contract is about to reach the really expensive stage just as the Rockies want to sign some of their new young players. There's a couple pretty good free agent first basemen they could go after to replace him and save a lot of money to keep certain of their stars on the team with. (Nick Johnson springs to mind as a guy who would replace most of Helton's production for a much lower AAV). It suggests that the Rockies could at least be considering finding him a new home. While the AAV is high the years on Helton's deal are shorter now and would basically be a 2 year deal for us at a manageable contract for a team like Boston, especially if Helton remains a plus defender at first base for the next two years and continues to be one of the few players in the league who surrenders outs even more grudgingly than Youkilis.

If there's any risk of that -- any at ALL -- then you say the heck away from Felix Hernandez.

Then what the heck was all that about? I came into this thread to point out that you go after both guys and that Bay isn't a bad guy to wind up with, and you show up riding the Holliday bandwagon for all it's worth. It sounds like for the most part you agree with me so what was all that for?

Well, we certainly are in a better position than we were when Dan Duquette was signing anyone with a pulse and low contract demands to flesh out the middle of our rotation. Unless we're certifiable enough to actually deal Clay Buchholz we're really just figuring out who fills the last rotation spot and the last couple seats in the bullpen.

Honest question, Dipre. If we wind up with Bay and not Holliday, are you going to be disappointed?

Why the heck would anyone actually attempt to have a rational discussion with you on any subject? Seriously, you're at least as bad with the loopy crusades on minor points as you accuse me of being. The difference between Bay and Holliday is NOT that great and which one you go after depends on what you want from your left fielder. it is NOT a slam dunk that Holliday is the guy you go after, and even if it is you STILL go after both because either one is more than good enough to be our left fielder. And that's the end of it.

We got to the playoffs with a pretty string-and-duct-tape rotation in 2005. I don't think looking for redemption projects to put in the 5 hole and the bullpen is really the same as "throwing crap at the wall" anyway. Especially since we're not really counting on them for much and have some half-decent prospects to slot in if they fail.

There's enough of a baseline from his other seasons to demonstrate that 2007 doesn't reflect Bay's talent level. When a guy is one thing every year but one, he's probably that thing. In this case, one of the better offensive LF's in the league and also one of the most consistent from year to year -- and a player I want back next year and for many more. Much like I feel there's enough of a baseline from his other seasons to wonder about Holliday's 2007, which is when everyone started lusting after him, and whether he'll ever reach that level again.

.037 OPS is substantial? It's there, I haven't denied it, but that difference barely clears the margin of performance either one would have in a given year. Mostly fuelled by Matt Holliday's 2007 season in which he hit .340 (and achieved a whopping .380 BABIP). Over the last two seasons Bay has had the advantage. Holliday has the best offensive season between the two. Bay has the second, fourth, and fifth, and has performed at a consistently good level throughout his career, especially if you bear in mind that Bat's injury-riddled 2007 performance drags his numbers down as much as Holliday's 2007 performance with that ridiculous BABIP inflates his. I said over the last two years, dolt. Homers do matter, and other than 2007 Bay has hit more of them every year than Holliday has. Sure, Holliday hits enough extra singles to inflate his SLG past Bay's but Bay has superior isolated power. (.240 to Holliday's .227) If you want a pure power hitter, the better power hitter of the two is still Jason Bay. Did you hear me say defense didn't matter? If you'll look back, I said that unless one of the two was awful, defense was at most a secondary issue. We're going after these players because they're offensive players. Defense is an extra, a tiebreaker, the crackers with the soup, whatever "secondary but potentially useful attribute) analog you prefer.

He's a middle of the order hitter. HR's matter. Especially when it's the one major difference between the two players. By .010. That's maybe 5-6 outs a year. If it was the difference between .320 and .330 I'd be more worried. The diference between .384 and .394 is not big enough to make a fuss over. Depends on how you define a complete offensive threat. Bay was the better base-stealer, OBP is about equal, and Bay hit for somewhat more power. We aren't signing either of these guys for their gloves. This is left field we're talking about. Defense is at most a tiebreaker, unless one of the two are ridiculously bad. Last year Holliday was a little above average, and Bay a little below average, but both were at least adequate left fielders so the argument isn't particularly compelling compared to a discussion of their offensive abilities.

Yeah, sorry, a gaffe on my part. But just because Youkilis has been better than Holliday over the last 2 years is no reason not to get him, right? I should clarify: I'm aware of the difference in OPS (although they're virtually tied this year) I just think Bay's skillset is more important to us than Holliday's would be, OPS notwithstanding.

Yeah, this is kinda what I'm talking about.

Sorry guys, for some reason Dipre brings out the worst in me.

OPS is not everything. We have plenty of OPS on this roster with or without Holliday, and Holliday and Bay are close enough to equal on the OPS front over the last 2 years. Slight advantage Holliday, but it's not a huge difference. I know I'm gonna sound like one of those uberconservative schmucks we like to laugh at but what we really need right now is a home run hitter to stick in the middle of the order. I think you and I both agree on that, that's why you want Gonzalez despite him only really having the one great OPS year himself (Gonzalez' career OPS is .869. Good, but not exactly tremendous) Holliday is good for mid 20's HR's each of the last 2 years. Other than his one 36 HR year in 2007 he's pretty much been Kevin Youkilis. That's pretty danged good, but it isn't as good as Bay in the one area we really need from them. And he's been up and down in his career in total HR's despite mostly playing at Coors. Meanwhile Bay's been good for 30+ HR's a year with one exception despite changing leagues and playing in a far tougher division. That's why I call him a model of consistency and why I'd really prefer we get him. You have a better idea exactly what you're getting with Bay.

I did say "for all we know." You know, the precursor to extreme, improbable statements used to make a point about how little we know.

And that is the wildcard right now. Since we don't know WHY Towers was fired it makes the situation almost impossible to read from a distance. For all we know he was fired BECAUSE he was listening to offers on Gonzalez.

OK, so we're pretty much on the same page here then. 's cool. Since without Felix I think their best SP is probably Ryan Rowland-Smith though, I think you can count on the Mariners to hold out for Buchholz. Especially because they have more than enough money coming off the books in the next couple years to make Felix a happy man.

Believe me, if I have the choice between keeping Buchholz and keeping Reddick and Tazawa, I keep Buchholz. And I don't spend a lot of time worrying about it.

Cute. SD has reasons to trade Gonzalez. They also have plenty of reasons to wait. It is by NO means a slam dunk that we're going to get a price for him that Theo is willing to pay.

This is ambiguous. Do you mean you doubt we'll have to give up Buchholz for Felix? Or do you mean if we can get Felix without giving up Buchholz, which you doubt is possible?