Dojji

If we really wanted to get wacky we could all go back to July of '07 and see what people were saying about trade for Eric "Game Over" Gagne.

I was comparing Wins to Starts because both are incredibly limited in what they can tell you. Wins is more about the value of the team and all Starts is really useful for is injury patterns.

pretty much. Wins aren't a completely ignorable stat but they're an awful thing to try to use to judge the actual value of a player. Even stats like Games Started tells you more than Wins when it comes to predicting the kind of year a player will have next season.

Fixed.

Abreu is a player who steals 20-30 bases a year and gets on base at a very high rate. I'd look at putting him at the top of the order. Abreu Pedroia V-Mart Youkilis Drew Lowell Ortiz Lowrie Ellsbury

Not to mention that it brings out the very salient and important fact that he's averaging almost 6 innings a start. Last year he wasn't averaging five.

Abreu would be a good Plan C actually. Yeah, no power, but his OBP skills are excellent and he has interesting speed. The list tapers off pretty sharply after that however.

Or WE could show some sack and prepare ourselves to support a good team that isn't a perfect team.

Reddick's upside is a whole heck of a lot better than an MLB 4th OF. He needs a full season of AAA at bats before you even talk about him on the bench. You know who would make an interesting option off the bench as a 4th OF? Andruw Jones. He might actually do it too.

So much for Lackey. I guess at least they have some pretty talented guys to buy low on this year. I suppose Harden and Sheets are the best of the bunch.

Florida won't touch Papelbon.

While I agree with your main point, Dipre, some of that "suck party" are actually pretty darned good. Valverde in particular has been an elite reliever each of the last 3 years. he isn't as good as Papelbon but he's a fine closer in his own right.

Carlos Gonzalez was also involved in that trade if memory serves. Just because Street's the big leaguer involved in the deal doesn't mean he was the main player. If Gonzalez comes through in Colorado, he could replace Holliday's production nicely. Mediocre closer on the side? Score.

Sure, but all they'd have to do is change their mind and they'd have him for a year. I can see a player using the threat to retire to keep a front office honest, or to gain leverage over them if they get too aggressive trying to keep him where he doesn't want to be. Of course, it only works if you're willing to follow through but in Wagner's situation I could definitely see it helping him go where he wants to go. I don't think the Sox would ACTUALLY do that to Wagner, and I doubt Wagner does either, but players have been screwed over by front offices before. If you have some leverage to make darn sure that doesn't happen to you why not use it?

why on earth would people give up valuable top prospects for Papelbon when they can go to the free agent market and sign Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Billy Wagner or 3-4 other half decent closer types and keep their youngsters? Very, very few GM's are so in love with the closer that they'd go after Paps in that situation.

I wonder how much of this is just a standing threat to make sure Boston doesn't pick up that option.

Quite a few closers on the FA market this year. Surprisingly many really.

Actually Lackey's been very consistent over his career. He can be counted on for a decent ERA, a bb/9 of south of 3, a k/9 of right around 7, I don't see much evidence of decline in his statline numbers. I'm more worried about his health. Lackey's missed some time over the last couple years and that might be a precursor to more serious injuries. If it wasn't for that concern I'd be all for getting him. A healthy rotation of Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Daisuke and Buchholz could be incredible.

I'll be the first to say that yes, Dipre certainly did back his argument up with facts and analysis. Did someone say you didn't? But you backed it up a lot more with personal insults, which made what would have otherwise been an interesting discussion tiresome and frustrating. I wasn't going to say anything, but since you're continuing to make an issue of this I might as well.

That's too deep for me. But what it comes down to IMHO is how far you're prepared to go to apologize for batting average and where you start making the call that OBP is the number that's important -- and that the important facets of AVG are reflected in OPS, at which Holliday excels (and where Bay is a fair bit closer) I'll take a guy who doesn't make a lot of outs and hits for great power. As near as I can see, that's either Bay or Holliday, and while Holliday's a little better, both players are going to earn their large paychecks over at least the next 3 years. If we can sign one of them, whichever one it is, we probably won't regret it. Me I'm a conservative -- I prefer the familiar, especially since Bay has proven he can perform in Boston and Holliday really hasn't. Bay's consistency as a home run hitter is an asset I'm prepared to give up a bit of OPS for. But if Holliday agrees to sign with us while Bay goes elsewhere, I'm certainly not going to complain. I don't relaly care that much which one we get. What I don't want to see is people getting so fixated on Holliday that a perfectly good Plan A-2 quietly signs somewhere else because we're too busy going after a "better" player that NYY has a leg up on. We need to be in on both Bay and Holliday right up to the elbows and sign the first one that agrees. The chance of getting neither is the big thing to guard against, not winding up with the lesser player among two great players..

The Mariners could get in too, depending on how serious they think their chances are. And the Angels have been spending money like water for years trying to get over the hump, and will have an opening perhaps.

That's why I was hoping they could maybe get something done before free agency. Looks like that's unlikely now. We're in real trouble if both Bay and Holliday sign elsewhere. And with the Tigers, Mariners, and Mets as teams I can think of right off the top of my head that have money to work with and/or urgently need a LF this is pretty possible.

I bet he weighs like 300. Anyway, I'd love to see Wagner back if he'll come. I'd love to see him sign with someone else if he doesn' want to come back here, and let us get a pick.