Dojji

I was very skeptical of Bradley last year because the hype for an unproven player was way over the top (and was probably part of the reason why Jacoby Ellsbury isn't still patrolling center for us which I think will go down in history as a mistake), but I honestly think the kid has some good upside. he's a patient hitter and a great defender in a premium position. I'm going to keep an open mind on Bradley going into the year. He has potential, and I'd hate to discard that just because his first foray into the bigs did not work out for him. At the very least he's going to be a good backup for someone, and I do think he has the ability for more. Having said that I do realize that I said exactly the same things about Che-Hsuan Lin, so it's reasonable to keep expectations modest.

Key word there being "former." I don't exactly expect Pedey to be an MVP this year. If I did, I would never have started this thread.

It's not wrong at all. 2B is third on the defensive spectrum behind C and SS and just ahead of CF. They're both critical positions, but it's harder to find a capable 2B. It's not easy to find a capable CF either, but it is *easier* and we do have a few good candidates right now. The fact that Betts can be an incredibly valuable CF doesn't change the fact that he could also be an incredibly effective 2B, and depending on how Pedroia's health goes, we could wind up needing one. I am very nervous about a small player that is showing signs that his body may be beginning to break down, who's struggled with injury for at least 4 years, and whose numbers over those years, at least offensively, have dropped pretty steadily, and who is on the wrong side of 30. If I wasn't concerned about these things I'd agree that there was nothing to discuss. There's not a lot of players Pedroia's size who make it past age 35 or so. Chone figgins didn't. David Eckstein didn't. The life span for these littler infielders as starting players seems to be substantially shorter than average and if that holds true, Pedroia is 2-3 years away from the end of his. Well within the lifespan we'd expect to have Mookie on this team. I am ignoring some key factors like chemistry and team leadership, and that, if anywhere, is where the flaw in my thinking is, but if this was a video game, the answer would be to unload Pedroia's contract, slot Betts in at 2nd, and work CF and RF out between JBJ, Castillo and Vic

I love Pedroia. He's a great ballplayer and a heck of a second baseman. Buuuuuuuuuuut, his OPS for the last 5 years goes like: .860, .861, .797, .787, .721. A .721 OPS isn't awful for a second baseman, but there's a trend here over the last 4 years, a clear one. He's a tough little guy, but still a little guy, the kind that get to this level by throwing their bodies all around with no regard for health and limb, and health and limb suffer accordingly. David Eckstein, a very physically similar player (while he didn't have Pedroia's power) was out of the league by age 35. Pedroia is going into his age 31 campaign and has been plagued with a neverending string of minor injuries of exactly the same kind that eventually caught up to Eckstein. There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that Dustin Pedroia has at least 3 more years of life as a highly serviceable second sacker, if not an elite one. But with the outfield jamup and a very, very, very high ceiling young second baseman (among other positions Mookie Betts plays) pounding the door down in Spring Training, it's time to remove the taboos and talk about the elephant in the room. Is it possible that the dispassionate solution to the Betts problem is to move one of our franchise cornerstones to give the kid room to realize his potential at an infield position he's considered a plus defender at, where his bat makes him all the more valuable? This question has two main parts. First, is it the right move for Betts, and I think it is. That bat at second would make him a moster and give us a huge franchise weapon. The second question is, is it right for the franchise, and when you combine Betts' cost controlled status, performance ceiling, and Pedroia's age, contract and injury history, the case starts to look compelling. One of those two has the demonstrated potential to be an elite 5 tool player going forward, and let's be honest, it isn't Pedroia. He's still a beloved player who hustles hard and defends as well as anyone I've seen at second, but the bat is beginning to leave and the injuries are catching up, which for a little guy is a big concern. With his constant plague of injuries, which I don't see Pedey's offense changing for the better anytime soon, expecting Pedroia to return to his former peak production just seems unreasonable. Betts isn't by all accounts any kind of liability at 2B and in fact is considered a high level defender, and also looks like a reasonable bet to outproduce Pedroia at the plate. And that bat... at a fielding-premium position.... Also there's a big issue based on the fact that it's not all that common for a player to move back to the infield after pulling multiple full seasons as an outfielder. it's done from time to time, but definitely not the norm. If Pedey plays out in 2-3 years or so we could be looking at a situation where Betts is our CF and we're playing woulda-coulda-shoulda with a hole in a big defensive position. It is a lot easier to find a serviceable league average CF than a league average 2B on the open market, that's just a fact. From a pure moneyball/risk management standpoint, or if this was a video game, using Betts and trading Pedey is objectively the optimum move. That said, we're talking about a huge franchise-shaking move here, changing our identity fundamentally and there's going to be some very good reasons not to consider it. On the other hand -- we just finished in the basement last year, shaking up the identity may be exactly what we SHOULD be doing. So I'm torn. Thoughts?

A contender yes. One of the 3 or 4 teams in the AL most likely to appear in the World Series? No.

Can't answer to why the Sox are still clinging blindly to the vain hope that is Buchholz, but Masterson is a very durable pitcher, even in the years where he isn't very good. Prior to last year he pitched 216, 208, and 190 innings in the prior 3 seasons. and Kelly averaged between 5 2/3 innings a start, which is good for a 5 they're still stretching out.

He should just focus on looking forward to the return of Alex Rodriguez to the everyday Yankee roster.

Desperate hope of course. He can't count on his Yankees to do anything this year, so failing that, hoping we stumble is all he's got.

Honestly I think that when the Sox brass look in the mirror, they admit to themselves (but can't admit to us because they're afraid of losing ticket sales revenues) that this team is not a true top flight contender for the forseeable. One FA pitcher more or less isn't going to help when the problem is that the rotation has aged and several key figures of prior championship runs left, or declined, or are stupidly inconsistent and injury prone (Buchholz) and that the team is probably going to wind up replacing at least 3 of its starters over the next 4-5 years. This remains true whether or not Lester is on the team, which is probably why he was moved on and the team made moves towards younger free agent arms. What you saw this offseason was a team that wasn't confident in its ability to field a worldbeating rotation no matter how much money they spent so they focused on other priorities and just tried to make sure all the starters they picked up were durable guys who could pitch a lot of innings on a good day. In other words, we're in a holding pattern while our younger players grow into the stars we hope they can be. Given the state of the lineup as well, I think that was the right call. There's too many things on this team that aren't A+ grade for an honest assessment to spend whatever it takes to go for it now. That's just not what the team is as of now. The potential is there, certainly, but it's not clearcut enough to go maxed out right at the outset. We need some things to go right with prospect development (which has been a sour spot on the team for half a decade now) before this team is a top contender again.

Yadier Molina is the best defensive catcher in baseball. it's not a slight on Vazquez to point out that Yadi is just as good defensively, is still more or less in his prime, and has a decade of experience and 2 world series rings. I would be very, very grateful to get 80% of Molina out of Vazquez. He's got the potential, it's just a matter of whether he can put the whole package together. But if you could trade Vazquez for Molina you do it 20 times out of 10. Not that I think either the Cards or the Red Sox would make that trade, they both seem to know what they have. BTW look at what Yadi can do for Cardinals pitching. There hasn't been a pitcher in a Cardinals uniform that hasn't outperformed his talent during Molina's tenure. Catchers that can do what Yadi can do, and what Vazquez is capable of learning to do, are made of pure wins.

I don't like eating into our starting depth that way if we can avoid it. We might need Barns as a back of the rotation starter at some point this year. I always prefer not to shift a guy who can start into a relief role unless he's much better suited there.

Yep. I agree. There are very, very, very few catchers who can do what Vazquez does as a defender. Swihart is by no means a poor defensive catcher, and he will, or at least should, hit far better than Vazquez, but a catcher has far more impact on the game defensively than offensively and defensive talent at the 2 position shines a lot brighter and impacts the WL a lot more than being 1 hitter out of 9 Swihart would have to be an all star offensive catcher, plus at least above average defensively to match a contribution Vazquez could make while hitting very little.

A few minor injuries while stretching out for the season is pretty normal. Happens every year to every team.

I agree with you that Vazquez' arm is a match for that of "the Cards' catcher" (6x Gold Glove catcher Yadier Molina) as is the overall package of defensive talent. And in fact I think Yadi is a pretty solid comp for Vazquez' potential upside. He's got the same kind of elite arm, and if you look at Molina's stats, he spent his first few seasons doing nothing on the offensive side. He came around because his defense kept him in the Cardinals' lineup and he was a good enough hitter to figure out adjustments after a few thousand reps. Vazquez could do that. He doesn't have elite offensive talent, but he may be able to figure out how to approach at bats well enough to produce something, and even if he doesn't, the very worst he possibly is is a great defensive platoon catcher. Vazquez would be a starting catcher on 80% of big league teams for his defense alone. Defensive catchers who can do what he does are worth their weight in gold. The question is can the Red Sox stomach his offense. They want that 1-9 threat and with Vazquez in the lineup they won't get it. With Swihart to dream on, will the Red Sox brass ignore the bird in the hand? I don't know. Should they? I don't know. But I do think the Sox brass knows what they have in Vazquez, and if I was in charge, I'd make sure that if Swihart does supplant Vazquez it's because he bloody well earned it.

Indeed, as a matter of fact the draft system is deliberately designed, along with controlling the voraciousness of big market teams, to minimize the leverage of potential talents just as much as humanly possible.

Not if you're smart. Plenty of room for some prospects for now and more for 3 years from now. Never lean on just one prospect to be The Guy at any one position unless you're given no choice. If I'm honest I'd rather sacrifice wins this year to keep that prospect roster intact. I think this team has more potential to grow from within at the moment than it does to mortgage talent for wins and win the World Series. Our team infrastructure is a little too old and has too many flaws for me to be comfortable with a team decision to be in GFIN mode.

They must be very sure. They haven't shelled out that much money for an individual talent since Daisuke Matsuzaka.

I'm sure you're aware what a false dichotomy that is. You do not need to make the fans uncomfortable to put a good product on the field.

At the same time how long do you pass up millions of extra dollars a year by sticking with the oldest, but also the smallest, most cramped, least comfortable stadium in major league baseball? Things end. Sooner or later that includes Fenway Park. you put a 60,000 seat stadium somewhere easy to get to, with all the mod cons and as much individual character and you can preserve without sacrificing modernity and we will fill it. Fenway will always have a special place in the hearts of fans who've been there but let's be honest, they're walking away from money to keep that stadium in full operation as it is, sooner or later that changes. And I do hope that when they build a new park (and they eventually will) they don't make the mistake of slavishly copying all of Fenway's flaws and quirks. Let Fenway be Fenway, and let the new ballpark have its own character as the new history unfolds on its own field.

No it isn't. Not unless you can get something you desperately need. Other teams aren't usually quite as quick to trade for catching prospects as some others just because scouting catching is a bit more of an undiscovered country than most other positions due to it being harder to really get a handle on defensive metrics meaning catching prospects are even more variable than most. Catching is such a tough position to make the right call on that it's really hard to get a team to invest full price in a stud backstop they didn't develop themselves. Not that it hasn't been done, but not nearly as much as outfielders, infielders or pitchers. Most teams really seem to prefer to either pick a catcher off the bargain bin, or grow their own. There's a distinct possibility that we could wind up in a position that we want to trade Vazquez and can't find a buyer who isn't trying to lowball us.

So in other words he's the sort of guy who would be perfectly happy with Vazquez behind the plate and not so much worried about Swihart until Swihart forces the team to find a place to put him. Oh and for the record, since we are talking about prospects, I haven't given up on Garin Cecchini just yet. The power implosion he suffered last year is troubling because it's exactly what happened to onetime stud prospect Lars Anderson, among an uncounted horde of others, but he's still young enough that it's too early to throw in the towel on Cecchini. The offseason moves by the organization to overload the team with third basemen from free agency suggests that he's got a long steep road to climb though.

True, but there were also fewer teams. So thinned out on one end, concentrated on the other. Which end of the balance you lean on is almost a matter of opinion, although considering the vast number of talented baseball playing hispanics in particular these days, it's hard to argue that it truly cancels out.

Because it's their glass and they just want a drink from the damn thing

He was barely below average at any of those things, and was well capable of an above average year at any one of them. He was an offensive catcher and had a good enough glove to be an offensive catcher. What stopped him was his hip condition, not his poor defensive play.

Baseball reference defensive metrics have him at exactly a run per year below average defensively. Basically Napoli was an average defensive catcher with more than enough bat to make it work. Scoscia used Mathis as the catcher so he could get an excellent glove behind the dish instead of an average one, and DH Napoli to keep his bat in the lineup. Since he didn't have a better DH at the time it was a viable strategey, and one the Rangers used extensively as well. If we get our wish with both Vazquez and Swihart it's a strategy I could see the team using frequently after Papi retires