Jayhawk Bill

GDTRFB...

"Going Down The Road Feeling Bad?"

"Somehow it seemed as though the farm had grown richer without making the animals themselves any richer— except, of course, for the pigs and the dogs."

 

Roll away the dew.

OK...

From the Orwell reference I believe that you're suggesting that a team so similar to last year's should have similar offense, and from the "Franklin's Tower" quote I gather a caution against hubris. Other lyrics from "Franklin's Tower" by the Dead:

God save the child that rings that bell

It may have one good ring, baby, you cant tell

Could be. :dunno:

Pardon my search for reasons for optimism as the snow and ice piles up in my driveway and my hot stove (I've really got one) strains to warm my home. I look at this and see cause for hope; certainly, though, we've all lived through past heartbreak of expectations dashed as Red Sox fans.

If I've misinterpreted your allusions, well, sorry. At least I tried.

Crisp will only be starting in CF if Ellsbury is traded. I think Francona will give Jacoby the Pedroia treatment this yr.

I hope that you're right!

As an aside, serving as backup LF/CF/DH (again, with the assumption that Manny would really DH and that Ellsbury would play LF) gave Ellsbury "full time" status in this evaluation. If Crisp were the backup, I'm not sure that the reverse would be true: Moss would fill both corner spots, I'd expect.

The CHONE projections are out.

For those of you who don't know, the CHONE projections are one of the complete sets that one can acquire to gauge projections. They're free; they're roughly as good as the Marcels, the ZiPS, or the Bill James projections, and they're almost as good as PECOTA. They tend to underestimate leaders' years because they regress to the mean to account for injuries, but every serious projection system does that. You can find the CHONE projections here:

http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html

I took the CHONE projections to see what the Boston lineup this year might look like. I made these assumptions:

1) Terry Francona will start the season using this batting order:

1) Pedroia

2) Youkilis

3) Ortiz

4) Ramirez

5) Drew

6) Lowell

7) Varitek

8) Crisp

9) Lugo

2) When any of these players aren't playing, their replacements will hit in their batting order spot;

3) The Depth Chart at http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bos reflects the actual way that players will be used;

4) The backup at RF is Brandon Moss, the backup at 1B is Chris Carter, the first backup at DH is Jacoby Ellsbury (actually playing LF while Manny DHes) and the second backup at DH is Chris Carter, the second backup at SS/2B is Jed Lowrie, and the second backup at 3B is Chris Carter (actually playing 1B while Youk plays 3B );

5) The team gets 4,374 outs (27 outs x 162 games), and each batting order position gets 20 more outs than the one behind it;

6) Pitchers don't hit.

Using these assumptions for a moment (and we'll come back to them), here are the 2008 Red Sox:

[table]Last | Batting Average | OPS | HR | RBI | Runs

Varitek | 0.249 | 0.770 | 16 | 57 | 64

Youkilis | 0.272 | 0.816 | 15 | 63 | 97

Pedroia | 0.299 | 0.805 | 8 | 58 | 87

Lowell | 0.286 | 0.801 | 18 | 81 | 78

Lugo | 0.267 | 0.720 | 8 | 54 | 65

Ramirez | 0.284 | 0.909 | 27 | 88 | 87

Crisp | 0.278 | 0.759 | 10 | 64 | 60

Drew | 0.273 | 0.837 | 15 | 75 | 76

Ortiz | 0.301 | 1.012 | 39 | 115 | 116

Mirabelli | 0.212 | 0.663 | 7 | 19 | 21

Carter | 0.269 | 0.760 | 11 | 53 | 50

Cora | 0.258 | 0.697 | 4 | 31 | 32

Ellsbury | 0.299 | 0.771 | 6 | 57 | 87

Moss | 0.260 | 0.736 | 4 | 26 | 25

Lowrie | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1 | 9 | 9[/table]

I don't know about you, but I don't see anything too outrageous there. Maybe 10 home runs for Coco Crisp is a little high, even assuming a starting role. That's really pretty trivial on this scale, though.

Here's the deal: if you add up those last two columns, you get 1043 RBI and a whopping 1180 runs scored. That averages to 1111 runs scored by the team.

Have we overestimated?

I can find one big thing missing in the assumptions: GIDP. Outs are used not only by batters but also by baserunners, usually in GIDPs. That accounts for another 150-200 outs, enough to drop these figures for the team by 5%, with the bench players losing the playing time.

But that's still a team that scores over 1,000 runs.

Here's a list of reasons for optimism regarding the 2008 Boston Red Sox at the plate:

1) JD Drew and Julio Lugo are very likely to exceed their 2007 performances. For technical reasons, so is Doug Mirabelli.

2) Jacoby Ellsbury will get more playing time.

3) Manny is in his contract year.

4) Papi has been playing hurt for the past year and a half--if he's better, watch out.

5) Chris Carter can flat-out hit.

Here are reasons for pessimism:

1) Mike Lowell won't repeat his extraordinary 2007.

That 2007 team scored 867 runs. Eric Hinske, Kevin Cash and Wily Mo Pena combined to hit barely over .200 in almost 400 at bats, burning a whole lot of outs. The only player listed here who hits around .200 is Doug Mirabelli, and he still hits roughly 100 points higher than Kevin Cash. Yes, injuries happen, but serious unforeseen injuries result in playing time for Ellsbury, Moss, Carter, Lowrie, and Kottaras, all of whom can reach base.

***

I suspect that we're underestimating the offensive potential of the 2008 Boston Red Sox. Even if these numbers are 10% too high instead of 5% too high, this could still be a 1,000-run team.

Cabrera is an average CF at best overall.

Joe Sheehan of BP, yesterday, writing on the biggest candidates for a breakout in 2008 in MLB. His words on Melky Cabrera:

Melky Cabrera. Cabrera went backwards in ’07, but not by enough for concern. Remember that he is just 23 years old and has more than 1100 plate appearances in the majors, with average to average-plus defense (good physical tools, but very raw, takes bad routes) and a very good 129/96 K/BB. He is a mature player offensively, patient at the plate and fair on the bases (25-for-35 stealing in his career). One interesting quirk is his G/F ratio, which is 1.63 for his career and was a whopping 1.81 last season. Cabrera is listed at 5’11” and 200 pounds. He’s not Willy Taveras, but rather a player who should be developing power and learning how to drive the ball, rather than hitting the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time.

 

I’m reminded of Alex Rios, who doesn’t look a thing like Cabrera. Rios was largely disappointing in 2004 and 2005, hitting just 11 homers in more than 900 at-bats, with an isolated power of 117. The problem: Rios was hitting the ball on the ground too much, a 1.82 G/F in those two seasons. Starting in ’06, Rios put the ball in the air more than half the time, and became a star. When you look at Cabrera’s body, his established control of the strike zone, and his ability to hold his own at a young age, you recognize that all it’s going to take is for him to start elevating the ball. Cabrera may not get there in 2008, but he’s going to pop 80 extra-base hits and slug .500 in a season very, very soon.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7053

I maintain that it's the Hughes-Cabrera combo, not just Hughes...Hughes has Cy Young potential, but Melky Cabrera is going to be an All Star-caliber outfielder "very, very soon."

Sheer speculation: there was a rumor in December regarding Crisp and Lugo for Orlando Cabrera; there was a rumor last winter linking Boston to Khalil Greene. While Greene's .257 27 HR 89 RBI looks flashy' date=' the .254/.291/.468 batting line looks less good, his glove is below-average, he's due for a big arb award for those home runs and he's a free agent after 2009. Six fixed-cost years from Crisp and Lugo are worth more than two arb-eligible years from Greene...San Diego and Boston both might make that trade.[/quote']

 

More on Khalil Greene:

 

BP had a bit on Greene yesterday:

 

The park effect definitely shows up in Greene’s numbers. He hit a robust .288/.322/.519 on the road, just .216/.258/.412 at home. If you just double his road numbers, you get a shortstop with 58 doubles and 30 home runs. All told, there might not be a player in baseball today more hurt by his home park than Greene.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7044

 

That's the kind of player a smart GM trades, especially if he can get both a starting SS and a starting CF in the deal.

 

Greene has a career split of .274/.318/.452 in road games at AL ballparks--that's really good for a shortstop. For contrast, Lugo hit .190/.241/.306 on the road last year, but his career line of .200/.333/.320 in PETCO is probably more valuable than Greene's because of the big difference in OBP. (His career interleague mark of .257/.342/.376 is, of course, much better than his PETCO stats.)

The Brewers will have trouble competing with, in particular, the Cubs. The Cubs were and are better, and they have far more money to use in July if the need or opportunity presents itself. St Louis and Houston are always dangerous, despite their recent weak records, and the Reds aren't much worse than the Brewers.

It's tough to be a contender when you're fifth in runs scored and ninth in runs allowed in a good year. The Brewers are doing a good job with limited financial resources--I'm just not sure that contending against Chicago, Houston and St Louis is viable.

The top candidates for a Coco Crisp deal are Minnesota' date=' Oakland and San Diego[/quote']

 

San Diego?

 

I missed that one somehow. Coco Crisp would rock in PETCO: he'd lose no power, he doesn't use the wall in Fenway effectively as a hitter anyway, and he'd fit into an NL offense very well. I just don't know what the Padres would offer.

 

Sheer speculation: there was a rumor in December regarding Crisp and Lugo for Orlando Cabrera; there was a rumor last winter linking Boston to Khalil Greene. While Greene's .257 27 HR 89 RBI looks flashy, the .254/.291/.468 batting line looks less good, his glove is below-average, he's due for a big arb award for those home runs and he's a free agent after 2009. Six fixed-cost years from Crisp and Lugo are worth more than two arb-eligible years from Greene...San Diego and Boston both might make that trade.

Let's check contracts.

Glaus:

2008 $12.75 million

2009: $11.25 million player option

No-trade clause

Rolen:

2008: $12 million

2009: $12 million

2010: $12 million

No-trade clause

Both players are worth about 4 WARP1 (Glaus 4.0; Rolen 4.1). The slick-fielding Rolen is projected to age a little better than the slugger Glaus, although both are listed at a hefty 240 pounds. Glaus is 16 months younger. Rolen has had, by far, the better peak years (1998 and 2004). Both have had seesaw careers with time lost to injuries. Glaus has more association with PED rumors. Rolen doesn't get along with his clubhouse.

My take: watch for Glaus to tear up NL Central pitching in his contract year. Watch for Rolen to struggle a bit against AL East pitching in 2008*, while providing good glove work, AS LONG AS the media and the fans don't come down too hard on him for his hitting.

The big difference, though, is that it's one year of Glaus for three years of Rolen. St Louis is betting that Rolen is washed up soon. We'll see.

* Note that Rolen's career split vs. AL teams is .290/.381/.513, so a decline facing the AL is far from an automatic. I'll still predict it. Caveat emptor.

People who pine for Kevin Cash should not be taken seriously.

To the contrary, I think that Kevin Cash is well-situated to being somewhere in the Red Sox system, sitting on the pine.

FWIW, in over 40 years of watching baseball the only catchers I remember looking better on defense than Cash were Pudge Rodriguez and Tony Pena, when both were young. I think that holding onto Kevin Cash and keeping him acquainted with the knuckleball makes sense, as long as he can reliably support Wakefield if called upon to do so.

As an aside, since his right shoulder trouble in 2005, in 2006/2007 Cash has hit .180 in AAA and .111 in MLB. Given those MiLB stats, I really don't think that Cash is a .111 hitter at the MLB level: I think that he's a .160 hitter at the MLB level.

I did not realize you would take me literally and get the stats - but I was just trying to make a point that he is dead slow. Yeah - we have Papi and Manny(with or without helmets) or Youk for that matter but I have never seen anyone run as slow as Dougie.

Hmmm...I don't have 2007 stats, but here are 2000-2006 baserunning stats for each of the players you cite, courtesy Dan Fox:

[table]Player | Net Runs

Mirabelli | -5.03

Ortiz | -16.95

Ramirez | -18.56

Youkilis | -1.58[/table]

You can only cost your team runs on the basepaths when you're actually on the basepaths, so it looks as if Dougie is indeed worse than Papi and Papi is worse than Manny, but Youk is roughly an MLB-average baserunner.

FWIW, the worst baserunner on the 2007 Red Sox was Mike Lowell at -6.34 runs, largely because he got caught a few times trying to advance on fly balls. The best was Coco Crisp at +8.60 runs, second-best in MLB.

Thanks for the explanation - there is another reason not to re-sign Mirabelli.

For the record, Doug Mirabelli only reached first base 26 times last year. If Ellsbury were right behind him, about ten of those times Ellsbury would reach leaving Mirabelli at second. How often would you expect a hit that would allow Ellsbury to score from first that wouldn't allow Mirabelli to score from second? :dunno:

Mirabelli is slow. So is Papi. It's not a big deal.

Then Andy Pettitte must be really stupid to not demand immunity if he was injected with HGH as he has stated.

I never said that Andy Pettitte was smart.

Pettitte might always refuse to answer specific questions during his testimony, or he might assume (probably correctly) that he won't get prosecuted for his past actions, regardless.

I have a baseball question - I honestly do not know the answer. I will appreciate if someone can tell me.

 

Let's say that Mirabelli is batting 9th and Ellsbury is batting 1st. If Belli gets on 2nd base and Jacoby on 1st base - and then Pedroia at the plate gets a hit - is it OK for Jacoby to overtake Belli to reach home plate? Or Jacoby will have to wait untill Belli touches plate which might take eternity?

 

May be off topic - but my baseball technical knowledge is poor and can use some enrichment from the gurus here.

From the BR Bullpen:

Basic rules

A few fundamental rules apply:

 

Baserunners must touch each base in succession (i.e. first base, then second base, then third base, then home plate), without skipping any base;

 

There can never be two baserunners occupying the same base at one time; and

 

Baserunners cannot pass one another.

 

Failure to obey any of these rules results in one of the baserunners being declared out, either automatically or on appeal.

Why is McNamee the only person invited by Congress to testify that is demanding immunity???

Possibly because he'd be an accessory to criminal action if he'd injected Pettitte with unprescribed hGH as Pettitte has admitted, or if he'd injected Clemens with either unprescribed steroids or unprescribed B12, as he and Clemens have respectively stated. However one looks at it, he'd be foolish to testify unless given immunity.

There goes a forty-man roster spot.

The projections for Doug Mirabelli in 2008 actually aren't that bad. First, the Marcels:

.220/.300/.380, 9 HR, 34 RBI

Marcels are strictly done by formula, so there's nothing subjective here. Now, Bill James:

.208/.291/.383, 5 HR, 16 RBI

Bill James sees Mirabelli getting 120 AB, not the 255 projected by the Marcels, and we all know that he's about right. Mirabelli isn't getting extra games as a DH, and he'll catch just one of five pitchers, one game each doubleheader, and the day games after night games. Furthermore, Mirabelli is a good candidate for a DL trip sometime this season.

Still, that Bill James batting line differs little from the Marcels batting line excepting playing time, and it would be his best batting line in three years if he earned it. I'd agree that Mirabelli is likely to do a little better: even understanding how slow he is, his BABIP should be higher than the two-year .253 he's posted given how many line drives he hits, and his HR/FB% should be well above-average given his power, not the near-average 11.7% it's been for two seasons.

I'll still miss that roster spot, though.

Stop smoking crack.

Stop making spurious allegations of illegal activity.

Those guys couldn't hold Santana's jock. Don't buy into New York media hype.

Trust me, I don't evaluate players by any media hype. Those who've read my posts know that I evaluate by stats and comparables. Players as good as Cabrera and Hughes at such young ages don't come along often. Santana wasn't that good that young.

Cabrera is an average CF at best overall.

First, I regard his upside as much higher; second, a true average MLB CF in his pre-free agency years is a very valuable player.

Hughes has potential, but may not be the power ace that everyone thinks he CAN be.

Santana may not be the Cy Young winner that everybody thinks he CAN be. Both Hughes and Santana are pitchers, and pitchers get arm trouble. Santana had an off year, and he lost a little velocity. An augury? I dunno. :dunno:

Those are the centerpieces of a deal for the best pitcher in baseball? I'd love it if it could happen.

Great! We both want to see the deal happen!

Edit:

I'd commented yesterday that it looked as if the Yankees were backing off. From today's Daily News:

Yankees may give up on Johan Santana

BY PETER BOTTE

DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER

 

Thursday, January 10th 2008, 4:00 AM

 

Brian Cashman has remained protective of the Yankees' assembled prospects, while Hal Steinbrenner has been equally shielding of the team's finances.

 

Hank Steinbrenner? That's been another story for much of the winter.

 

But while stressing there is "absolutely nothing new" in terms of recent trade discussions with the Twins, Hank is beginning to sound convinced - if not nearly ready - to walk away from any potential blockbuster deal for Johan Santana.

 

"We went into this with me making the final baseball decisions and Hal more addressing the financial aspects of the company, but we both do everything," Steinbrenner said yesterday in a phone interview. "We're equal partners, but at this point, to tell you the truth, I'm leaning away from it anyway, so it doesn't matter. Same thing with Brian, he's another integral part of it, obviously, being the general manager, and one day he's leaning to do it and the next day he's not sure.

 

"But what it comes down to right now is giving up a lot (in a trade) and then having to do the big contract, as well. If (Santana) was just a free agent, we could just go ahead and do it. There's a big difference this way. We have to sign him as if he's a free agent, plus you have to give up major talent. That's a tall order."

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/01/10/2008-01-10_yankees_may_give_up_on_johan_santana-2.html

That appears to be what I'd posted yesterday, give or take.

BA always overestimates tools and underestimates skills and injury risks. Few future stars are missed by BA, but many BA top picks wash out.

Ellsbury is likely to have a better total MLB career value than Buchholz. Buchholz has a higher ceiling, along with a higher injury risk. BA, of course, puts Buchholz first.

This guy is trying to gift wrap Santanna for either the NYM, or the Sox. If Santana knows hes only going to get 5 yrs from the Yanks he might Veto. I doubt hed except a trade if this was the case.

 

Actually from another vantage point, if Theo also said he would only go 5 yrs, then Minny is stuck sending Santana to NYM(which is fine by me too) if they will give 7 yrs. Or Santana would have to accept a shorter deal. And if the Sox could get him on a 5 yr deal I'm all for it. 6 and 7 yrs make me weary...

 

 

BTW isn't it against some rule for him to make comments like this about Santanna and an extension? He'll run the Yanks into the ground LOL

The rule regards "tampering." One can't discuss contracts with a player under contract to another team, nor can one make pronouncements regarding what salary one would pay a player destined for free agency lest it influence the player's decision whether or not to accept arbitration.

Tampering happens...Theo has probably been guilty of it a time or two. Usually such things are leaked out indirectly to allow plausible deniability. As an germane example, we all "know" that Theo and the FO would give Santana 7/140 if he came to Boston. I can't find a quote to that effect, though, as I can find a quote of Hank Steinbrenner's. That might put the Yankees at risk of action for tampering.

Per AOL, Minnesota is leaning toward accepting the Yankees' offer:

...it does seem like Santana could be pinstripe-bound. The Twins have reportedly relinquished their demand that the Bombers include Ian Kennedy in their package and expressed a willingness to accept other players along with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. One would likely be minor-league hurler Jeff Marquez and, according to Neal, the other could be Kei Igawa.

 

On the surface, that seems outlandish. Igawa was terrible in New York this season and won't ever be more than a back of the rotation starter. He has four years at $4 million per left on his deal which you'd think would make the Twins leery of him but may actually help foster a deal. The Yankees have expressed a desire to slice some payroll if they add Santana's salary and moving Igawa would be a way to make that happen.

 

If the Twins have decided that Hughes is the guy they want most, as opposed to Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury, then taking on Igawa's salary may be the best way to make it happen.

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/01/07/twins-lower-demands-for-johan-santana/

As I've posted previously, I regard just the combination of Hughes and Cabrera as more valuable than Johan Santana, all aspects considered. The rumored inclusion of Igawa, who has negative trade value, suggests that Hank Steinbrenner has realized that he overbid and that the Twins are about to make him live up to his offer, and that the Yankees can't wiggle any further than using their absolute worst trade-eligible player as the fourth name without breaking their word (and possibly some legally-binding deal) with the Twins' FO.

The Yankees can still try to poison the deal by getting Santana to veto it, though. I think that's what they're doing.

I was aware of those stats. In one of those years, he had 0 HRs. He had more than 1200 ABs in those 2 years so his HR/AB ratio was about 1/300. That's Jaason Kendall numbers. I wasn't aware if he had been rumored to be using PEDs.

 

There are no rumors of which I'm aware. I merely point out that his extraordinary and enduring surge in power was mirrored by several of his teammates, a strong statistical improbability barring an external cause unusual in the history of the game.

Goose definitely deserves induction...

 

Maybe: no problem with his induction, but the standards for relief pitchers are, as yet, ill-defined. The defining stat for relief pitchers' excellence is saves. Career saves leaders:

 

[table]Rank | Player (age if active) | Saves

1 | Trevor Hoffman(39) | 524

2 | Lee Smith | 478

3 | Mariano Rivera(37) | 443

4 | John Franco | 424

5 | Dennis Eckersley | 390

6 | Jeff Reardon | 367

7 | Billy Wagner(35) | 358

8 | Randy Myers | 347

9 | Rollie Fingers | 341

10 | John Wetteland | 330

11 | Roberto Hernandez(42) | 326

12 | Troy Percival(37) | 324

13 | Jose Mesa(41) | 321

14 | Rick Aguilera | 318

15 | Robb Nen | 314

16 | Tom Henke | 311

17 | Rich Gossage | 310

18 | Jeff Montgomery | 304

19 | Doug Jones | 303

20 | Todd Jones(39) | 301

21 | Bruce Sutter | 300

22 | Armando Benitez(34) | 289

23 | Rod Beck | 286

24 | Jason Isringhausen(34) | 281

25 | Bob Wickman(38) | 267

26 | Todd Worrell | 256

27 | Dave Righetti | 252

28 | Dan Quisenberry | 244

29 | Sparky Lyle | 238

30 | Ugueth Urbina | 237[/table]

 

Bunches of those guys ahead of Gossage aren't making the HOF.

 

What about looking at league leadership? Gossage led his league three times. Quisenberry led his league five times, and he's an afterthought.

 

How's this: if Gossage is in, what about Lee Smith? Smith had more career saves, more years leading his league (4, plus 4 second-place finishes, versus three firsts and two seconds for Gossage), and their ERAs were almost identical despite Smith's playing in a hitter's era.

 

Gossage wasn't the best eligible relief pitcher not yet inducted. Rice is the best currently eligible outfielder not yet inducted.

 

...but I am certain of this. No GM at the time would have considered traded Jim Rice in his prime for Goose in his prime. Rice belongs too. He was the bigger star of the era.

 

Absolutely true, and an excellent point.

You must have a virus on your PC. Stop downloading porn.

Cheez, YAZMAN, just 'cause that's why you couldn't find the TYIB Awards doesn't mean that everybody has the same problem.

Hi I was wondering if anyone knew how to find out the TYIB awards?

For a good archive, try this:

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/awards/this_year_in_baseball_awards.shtml

Rice's well-deserved reputation as the most feared hitter of his day among his peers defies the stats.

Jim Rice earned 3.15 MVP Award Shares. Only one player with more who's eligible for the HOF isn't yet inducted: Dave Parker, the best player in the NL at the time Rice was the best in the AL. Parker has 3.19 career award shares.

Many of the great players who started a decade later than Rice probably extended their careers with PEDs, diminishing the respect for the great players of half a generation before them. Here are the only players who were rookies in the 1970's to make the HOF:

Paul Molitor: 3,319 hits

Eddie Murray: 3,255 hits

Cal Ripken: 3,184 hits

George Brett: 3,154 hits

Robin Yount: 3,142 hits

Dave Winfield: 3,110 hits

Mike Schmidt: 548 HR, 3 MVP, 8 GG

Carlton Fisk: 2226 games caught, 376 HR, 11-time All Star

Gary Carter: 324 HR, 11-time All Star

Ozzie Smith: 13 GG

To make the HOF from the 1980's, one either had to be in the 3,000 hit club, the 500 home run club (and Schmidt was far better than just a slugger), or one of the few best at a demanding defensive position in the history of baseball. But even of these elite players, only Schmidt, Murray and Brett earned more MVP Award Shares than Rice.

No one who played during that time or who followed the game would put Ken Singleton (a very good player), Jack Clark, Ron Cey (lol) or Dave Kingman (lmao) with Rice.

MVP Award Shares

[table]Jim Rice | 3.15

Ken Singleton | 1.43

Jack Clark | 1.16

Ron Cey | 0.25

Dave Kingman | 0.26[/table]

Your words are confirmed.

How Kirby Puckett could be in the Hall, but not Rice completely baffles me. Puckett wasn't even the dominant lead off hitter of his day. Rickey Henderson had that honor.

Kirby Puckett had 2.56 MVP Award Shares. He was almost as well-regarded as Rice at his peak. Three things in Puckett's favor:

1) He was a CF, and he was perceived to be good at it. Rice was a LF, and he was perceived to be bad at it, although Rice's career Range Factor per game just edges out Carl Yastrzemski's, suggesting that he might've been pretty good defensively.

2) Kirby Puckett's vision declined and he immediately retired. Jim Rice's vision declined and he played for three more years as a below-average left fielder. Puckett got sympathy votes; Rice lost his .300 career batting average.

3) Kirby Puckett was a very upbeat and popular guy. Jim Rice was a grumpy fart who could only be loved by Bostonians (and, considering the Bonds era, perhaps San Franciscans).

There may be a fourth thing in Puckett's favor: PEDs. Check out his stats: he had 4 home runs his first two years and he suddenly had 31 in his third season. His defense suffered terribly, as one would expect from a center fielder bulked up with steroids. Several of his teammates shared his power surge in 1985-86: Gary Gaetti (20 to 34 HR), Greg Gagne (2 to 12 HR), Kent Hrbek (21 to 29 HR), and Roy Smalley (12 to 20 HR). Nobody had a big drop, and Steve Lombardozzi went from 0 to 8 HR. Heck, Billy Beane had every home run of his MLB career with the 1986 Twins. There certainly may be other explanations, but knowing what we know now one has to wonder about a guy who gains so much power hitting in so little time.

But Jim Rice had more MVP Award Shares than Puckett. He was regarded as a better player at his peak, and he had better career milestone counts than Puckett, too.

Now this I like. JHB, where does Yankee Stadium fall in terms of Park Factor...with the deep LF power alley but short RF porch and considering there's limited foul ball space, I wonder if its considered a nuetral park, hitter friendly, etc.

 

Any thoughts?

Over a series of years, Yankee Stadium balances to a neutral park. In 2007, it favored offense by 7%, favoring home runs by 15%...maybe the wind was blowing out.

I'm starting to believe Clemens...

Why? You're far too young to be developing Alzheimer's.

Also' date=' they wouldn't have needed to get Swisher if Kenny and Ozzie Guillen would be willing enough to give Brian Anderson another chance. They're just too pigheaded to do it.[/quote']

 

Not so fast...apparently Konerko is on the trading block, which would bring Swisher to first base. The Angels are apparently willing to part with Ervin Santana and Howie Kendrick, while the White Sox want Chone Figgins added to that package.

 

Chicago Tribune link:

 

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-080105chicagowhitesoxpaulkonerkoanaheimangels,1,7077757.story?coll=cs-home-headlines

 

LA Daily Breeze link:

 

http://www.dailybreeze.com/sports/ci_7886756

 

I'm thinking that Chicago wants no rumors out regarding Konerko unless and until a deal is sealed, and that they're willing/wanting to throw another infielder into the package--possibly Joe Crede--to get Figgins,too, as their third baseman/leadoff hitter. MLB.com believes that it's that it's a two-for-one with Figgins, Kendrick and Santana all being discussed.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080105&content_id=2339984&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp