jacksonianmarch

Stephen Drew had a distal tib/fib fracture instead of a malleolar fracture. Humongous difference. You was effectively right around the WAR of Chavez in a down yr. I agree he is a wildcard, but I think he is more an .800OPS guy than a .745OPS guy if handled right That's not really a fair statement since he didnt start in 2011, didnt make his debut in the bigs until May last yr and broke his ankle on a freak play in August. I dont expect 30 starts from him, but I do expect a lot more than 12 In 2009, 2010, and 2012, he was above average. And, btw, he outperformed every one of your pitchers in 2012, yet he is average and Buchholz is a stud. How convenient. Hughes also dealt with dead arm at the beginning of the season. Once his stuff came back he was a solid #2. You guys like to justify Buchholz using the same marker, "Well, he was coming off injury and stuff, so, like the first 6 weeks don't count, and stuff." Use the same with Hughes and you'll see he actually pitched just as well as your supposed rotation saviour while giving more inning. Hypocrisy quashed! Yeah, the guy who has been stuck on a team that hasnt seen the postseason in a decade gets infused back into a playoff situation and all of a sudden starts hitting like the old days. And using OPS with Ichiro isnt the best method of evaluation anyway since in his illustrious career, he's only a .780OPS guy. His speed, defense and hitting ability combined will put him in the above average category yet again in 2013 To battle Nova for the #5 spot. And since when has throwing 100IP of 2.0WAR production with a K per inning and a low walk rate a bad thing? He did nothing but dominate his first yr in the bigs and he's being knocked for the role he played. Oh, brother. They are old, they do have injuries, but we've had an older roster than the sox for a decade now, and who seems to have more injuries on a yearly basis. That's right, the sox! And the counting on the longball thing is relevant, but when you remove Swisher, Chavez and possibly Ibanez from the equation and throw in a grinder like Youk and speedsters like Gardner and Ichiro, you are going to see a little bit of a different brand of Yankees ball in 2013 And they brought up Manny Machado who will be in his first full season. He will put up big numbers in Camden Yards and will likely be the next superstar. They should get a full yr of Jason Hammel as well. They're a tough team under Buck, so I dont expect them to go away completely. They'll be in the division into September, IMO. I have agreed as much in saying the Rays lost some production in the rotation and the pen. But they should have a full yr of Longoria and will be starting the top offensive prospect in baseball. They also have a ready made replacement for Shields in Archer who struck out 36 in his first 29 innings in the bigs. I expect them to take a step back in the pitching department, but depending on how Archer produces and Moore improves on his rookie season, some of it may be absorbed The offseason winners rarely end up playing out nowadays, but I do agree that the Jays look pretty solid in all phases this yr

He'll be in AA this yr and is pretty young. He could be an option at midseason if he completely destroys AA, but the likelihood is that he'll be in AAA come the end of the season. The sox are still trying to turn him into their SS of the future, and he'll need a little more time to work on the defensive aspects if they want to keep him there. If they move him to 3b, he might move faster. I have a sneaking suspicion that they are pegging him to be in Boston's starting lineup come 2014, and unless they are in contention, probably not before that

It's a lot easier to find a stopgap 1b than it is to get a stopgap 3B. If Bogaerts moved to 3b and he was big league ready, then it'd be an option, but for now WMB will be your 3b moving forward

He'd have to accept a 1 yr deal. Boras really overestimated his market. I think the Yankees want him gone since he'll offer them a pick and with Joba, KRob, and Mo healthy he doesn't really have a spot

Thank you moderators.

I had been accused of pointing him out too early, and I've even been wrong with him on a few occasions. But I was sure this time, just waited to be the second one to chime in

Dutchy, I think your pimp is calling. You should return to the position in front of the glory hole.

Yes, he is. He'd make a good window washer or snow shoveler. I'm willing to offer you (Dutchy) $10 an hour, probably 3 times what you make on a daily basis

I could use a good maid

Is that all you really have Dutchy? Lose an argument, devolve into a loser. Your life must suck

I enjoyed Dutchy's back and forth. Now, he has degenerated into a terrible troll. Oh well, you've been broken

Hey Dutchy, how have you been?

Where are you getting the breakdowns for LD and FB for home and away. I can only get the total numbers which show a marked difference in LD% from 11 to 12

His ERA sans that game was 4.42. Still well of career norms for Jon

I was looking at his overall data this time. But according to fangraphs, Lester allowed 54 more line drives than he did last yr and his LD% from 2011 to 2012 jumped from a career low 15.9% to 22%. Not sure where the 7 is that you are going after. The disparity may be the reason why his cutter isnt as effective. A slower cutter gets a little more time to break. 1 to 2 more inches could be the difference between a foul ball and a K, a line drive and a broken bat. I know you are trying your hardest to blame luck, but his BABIP was up due to an abnormally high LD%, which is the type of contact most likely to lead to a hit. His stuff has diminished, he's lost a tick on his velocity and his bread and butter pitches are no longer plus for him. When looking at that evidence, how can one assume this was mostly attributable to luck?

This is assuming he had any value to begin with. I am sure the sox had feelers out on Salty the second the Giants won the WS. But I am sure most teams are hip to the book on Salty. Only major offensive tool is power and his defense behind the dish is abysmal. His worth is limited. The sox might actually benefit from holding onto him, carving out a role where he catches, plays 1st and gives Papi a breather at DH and see if the lesser load gets his stick moving again. If it does, move him immediately

The Yankees are moving Tyler Austin to 3b for the start of the 2013 season. He should start in AA this yr and with his bat, he could be an option in the Bronx come the ASB. If Youkilis sucks nuggets and ARoid cannot stay on the infield for his return, Austin could be the next line of defense

AJ Pierzynski's agent is trying to get the Yankees into the bidding war for his client, but it sounds like a forgone conclusion that he's gonna have to accept a move to Texas. The Yankees learned their lesson doling out big money for a 36yr old catcher coming off a career season. They appear set on going with Austin Romine. Romine has been a guy I have been following for a long time. He was a 2nd round pick in the 2007 draft and has methodically moved up the system before a back injury really robbed him of 1.5 seasons. He's apparently fully healthy, enough so that he played in the AFL. Romine is likely to have no significant dropoff in terms of defensive skills behind the dish. He's got an above average arm, quick release and very accurate. He's got good feet and can block the ball with the best of them. He's got a good head on his shoulders and calls games well. Obviously, he will need to lean on backup Chris Stewart and his veteran pitchers in terms of figuring out how to pitch to big leaguers, but the skills are there. Offensively, he's not very flashy, but it isnt like he's replacing Piazza here. Martin's OPS was a paltry .722 in the Bronx, and that was mostly weighted by the 39HRs he hit. Romine is a guy who should eventually hit for a good average. Throughout his career, he's mostly been a .280 guy plus or minus about 15 points. He walks a fair amount, enough to see his OBP climb into the mid .300s. His power is mostly on the order of low double digits in HRs and 25+ doubles. Overall, he shouldnt embarrass himself with the stick and shows enough promise with the glove to become a reliable receiver. The question is, will he be healthy, and how will he adjust to the big league level. Fans wont be tolerant of a catcher with less power and less credibility behind the dish if he's hitting .180 come May 1

Gomes was for 2 and $10 mil. $5 mil AAV

I can buy that if Lester didnt totally dominate on the road. If he was, lets say a 4ERA pitcher on the road and a 5ERA pitcher at home, then maybe it's just a fluke. But he's a 3.10ERA guy on the road and a 6+ERA guy at home

Tell me why his walk rate was higher? Tell me why his HR rate was higher? Oh, and since I didnt want to school you too badly, lets look at some of the sabremetric stats, shall we? His line drive percentage was at a career high 22%. Meaning that it wasnt a fluke at all, guys were absolutely f***ing crushing the ball off of him. When he was in his solid yrs, that % was between 15 and 20%. His GB% dipped below 50% for the first time since 2009. His K/9IP is down 2.7 per 9IP from his best season in 2009. His HR/FB was up to a career high of 13.9%, yet his FB percentage dropped due to the massive increase in his LD%. Know what that means? When they werent completely f***ing ripping seeds off this guy, he was giving up deep fly balls that went out of the park. His average fastball velocity was 1.1mph from his peak yr in 2009 while his cutter was at a career high velocity of 90.3. When your fastball and your cutter are the exact same speed and the bite isnt as nasty, it means hitters have to only see one plane and get the bat head out there at one speed. Lester was much, much better when he had a near 5mph difference between his cutter and his heater. In 2012, there was only a 2mph difference. His pitch selection, something that has gotten a lot of play here, was really no different than his previous career numbers. Taking a look at his runs above average based on pitches, when he was at his best, his cutter was an absolutely deadly pitch. In 2010, his cutter was 16 runs above average. In 2012, it was 4 runs below average. Meaning that the pitch itself has become a minus for him. As a matter of fact, the only pitch that graded out positively on this scale was his changeup. At his best, Lester got guys to swing outside the zone nearly 30% of the time and those that did made contact around 56% of the time. He was close to the 30% mark in 2012, but batters made contact 65% of the time when swinging outside the zone. IE, his stuff doesnt miss bats when he's going for the kill pitch as much as it did in the past. For the first time since 2008, batters are making contact with a Lester pitch over 80% of the time while he is throwing a career low 45% of his pitches inside the zone. Overall, the guy's stuff isnt biting as much, his velocity has dropped a bit, guys are teeing off on him and either hitting seeds in the field of play or long home runs instead of GBs and cans of corn. He's not striking guys out as much, he isnt getting guys to chase and miss outside the zone and he is throwing less strikes inside the zone, getting himself into bad hitters counts. I wish I had this info for home and away, but this is the fangraphs report, and it ain't pretty

But heez the fewcher?

Alright, you want me to throw out the really bad games. How bout we go by quality start percentage? That equates those horrendous messes to any game not reaching 6IP or allowing more than 3ER. Home- 8QS/18GS 44% Away- 9QS/15GS 60% Using that stat is a small sample size, but he threw one more QS in 3 less starts on the road. We shall see if he can overcome it.

They're an 80 win team right now due to the strength of the division. Not sure how people can look at the division and say it's weak. The Yankees are not going away, and they won 95 games last yr. The O's havent changed at all and they won 93. The Rays did take a step back with the loss of Shields, but are pesky and are coming off a 90 win season. The Jays added significantly to their squad and are considered the favorites. How do you expect the sox to do in that division with the team they have in uniform so far? 72 of their games are inside that buzzsaw of a division.

4 completely awful starts is an awful pitcher. How many completely awful starts did he have on the road? You cannot cherry pick this s*** man.