jacksonianmarch

Now that we have re-inked Kuroda and signed Tanaka, I think our rotation may be complete. Barring Cashman getting another $20 mil a year or so in FA money out of ownership, that is. But as it stands, I think this is a pretty formidable rotation with some depth options that make this team intriguing. That being said, I keep hearing people, on this site especially, saying the Yankee rotation is "garbage". Where have we heard that before? Oh yes, after the sox won 69 games and were last in the AL in 2012. How did that turn out? Right, guys with talent who were coming off career worst seasons suddenly rebounded to their career norms and all of a sudden, everyone was on their nuts again? Surprising, maybe, shocking, not in the least. Let's start on top. 1. CC Sabathia- he had a f***ing horrendous second half last yr. And why might that be? Well, CC started 2013 off with elbow surgery. Coming back from it, he had no velocity. For a good chunk of 2013, his average fastball velocity was in the 80s. As the season wore on, he gained velocity back, enough to push his fastball average velocity up to 91.3mph. What came with that, though, was lack of command. CC walked 5 more batters in 63 less innings after the ASB. He also had a 35 point higher BAA after the ASB. This shows he couldn't command his fastball at the upper register, mostly because it came back as the year went on. Fast forward to 2014. He comes into the yr healthy, will get a full off season in and at 33, should be able to return to the guy who gives 200IP and rarely walks batters. I expect a rebound yr. Maybe not a 240+IP yr, but a 200+IP season with an ERA in the mid 3's and nearly a K per inning. He's too good not to, and if his velo is back to a reasonable speed (91-92 is reasonable for him), he should be able to reach that. It might not be Verlander or Scherzer-esque, but it is still ace level production in the AL East. Mark it down, CC will be back in 2014. 2. Hiroki Kuroda- Kuroda finished the year poorly in 2013, but it pretty much evened out his unsustainable beginning to the yr. Hiroki's K and BB rates were practically identical pre and post ASB, but the BAA rose 52 points and hence his ERA rose from 2.65 to where he finished at 3.31. The interesting thing about Kuroda is how remarkably consistent his stuff has been since he entered the league. His average velocity in his career is 92 and last yr, he was 91.5, just 0.3 off from the yr before. My concern with Kuroda is that he is turning 39 yrs old in February and late 30s pitchers can lose it immediately. That being said, he's on a 1 yr deal and if he produces great. I don't know what to expect from him. He's been a solid #2 for both seasons in the Bronx. If he can continue that, then we'll be happy. 3. Ivan Nova- not sure if anyone has flown under the radar as much as this guy. In 139IP last yr, he managed to put up a 3.5 WAR. The reason? Because he has dominant stuff and he has finally figured out that you cannot just lay pitches down the middle (problem from the minors) or try to K everyone (problems in 2012). He's learning how to actually pitch. If he keeps learning and doesn't get K happy, he could be a dominant pitcher in the bigs. Most people don't know he threw to a 3.10ERA last yr. I think Nova ends up as our #2 come 2015. 4. Masahiro Tanaka- I am going to trust the scouts and the fact that multiple teams were willing to throw $20+ mil per yr out there for this guy. He's dominated the Japanese league and now he comes to the states at the young age of 25. I don't think anyone should expect ace level production in 2014. It will take time for him to adjust, but if he can give 180-200IP of 4ERA production, then he'll be worth his contract and be intriguing entering 2015. 5. This is the mish mosh part of the rotation, but one with candidates to be great. I start with Michael Pineda. He started the ASG a couple years back. We traded for him, he blew out his shoulder and missed all of 2012. He returned to the minors in 2013 and was handled with kid gloves. That being said, the reports are that he got his velo back and he entered the offseason healthy. My guess is he'll be groomed to start in AAA, but should be ready at some point in 2014. I am unsure how much run he will get, but he will likely be the most dynamic part of the #5 competition just due to his lights out stuff and mix of good command. Adam Warren is next on the list. He was a bulldog in the minors and pitched in the swing role in 2013. He was effective in that role, registering a 3.39ERA over 70+IP. He has a good 4 pitch repertoire, nothing overly special, but good velo and good stuff. He is likely the lead dog coming out of ST in 2014 to take that #5 role. David Phelps is next on the list. He came out of ST in 2013 as the starter, but was injured and rendered ineffective after that. He's an interesting pitcher, one not blessed with tremendous velo (he'll top out at 92), but he has a lot of movement. The problem is, he can nibble and when he does, he gets into a lot of trouble. He was good out of the pen in 2012, and I have a feeling he may return to that role should he lose the competition out of ST Vidal Nuno is an unlikely dark horse candidate. The guy was a MiLB FA and moved through the ranks in NY's system until he ended up starting a handful of games and dominating last yr. He's a lefty with a big curve and good command who can be sneaky with his fastball, but I doubt he wins the competition. He's likely in the pen come 2014. And the final guy, IMO, is Manny Banuelos. He was one of our top prospects in 2012, before being injured and eventually needing TJS. When on, he is a buzzsaw lefty with a FB capable of reaching 96 and a dynamite curve-change combo. He's young, and thus, he has issues with his command here and there. He had his TJS in November 2012, so he should be fully ready to go come ST. My bet is he starts as the ace in Scranton and finds his way to the Bronx in some capacity. For now, I think Warren and Phelps battle it out in ST, with the winner taking the reigns out of the block. Pineda and Banuelos will push the #5 spot and also be used as contingency when a pitcher gets hurt. Regardless, aside from Nuno, the guys above are all touted prospects with starter level stuff who should get enough chances to show their worth. On top of that, the top 4 should give us a good rotation. For as "s*****" as our rotation was per a lot of uninformed people on this site, the Yankee rotation was only 0.24 behind the sox in ERA and only threw 15 more innings. I think a bounceback from CC and the acquisition of Tanaka might help that along a little.

rj, where is a 2.7WAR player "average"? Seriously, I cannot believe the garbage and jealousy coming from this side. You would figure some degree of rationale would have made it here, especially since you guys just won the title. Cmon guys. In this lineup, with guys around him who can actually hit, he will likely be a 2.5-3WAR player. He's also an elite gloveman, so we get a boost there as well. Remember, there captain, Yankee 1bs hit .229/.292/.397 last yr, good for 28th in the entire big leagues in terms of OPS. Jeter is going to give us problems on the defensive side, IMO. Our SS's last yr hit .228/.286/.312 last yr, 26th in baseball. I am willing to bet my sig for 2 years that he can beat that OPS mark over the course of a season, assuming he is healthy. And it isn't like we were stealthy with the glove a year ago. Yankee SS's had the 24th best fielding percentage in baseball and had the 10th most errors. Jeter will not make those same mistakes, although he wont get to nearly the amount of balls. Remember, our SS for a good chunk of 2013 was Eduardo Nunez, and his UZR/150 at SS was -40.7. My guess is we see about 100 games from Jeter at SS with 60 coming from Ryan, who is a glove wizard. Jete probably plays 20 or so games at DH as well. Both of those guys fill areas where we were dead last yr. Are they the best in the game, no, but are they massive upgrades over the garbage there a year ago, absolutely.

Exactly, and we now have the best offensive catcher in the game behind the plate. (Mauer's now a full time 1B). People seem to forget that. Our lineup is vastly improved from a year ago. LF Gardner SS Jeter CF Ellsbury 1B Teixeira C McCann DH Soriano RF Beltran 2B Roberts/Joseph 3B Johnson/Nunez Our "infield" concerns on the offensive end are our 8th and 9th place hitters. Our 1-7 is solid. Johnson is no offensive scrub either. Who the f*** knows what Roberts gives us. Either way, we saw tremendous amounts of starting time out of Ichiro, Stewart, Nunez, Brendan Ryan, etc. we also had starts from Vernon Wells, Zoilo Almonte, Travis Hafner, etc. We were injured beyond reasonable expectations and still won 86 games

If he's worth it after 4, the Yankees will renegotiate. If he isn't, then so be it. All we need is a guy who can throw 180IP with an ERA of around 4 in yr 1. We don't need an ace yet

He's our #4 right now. And if Pineda comes back this yr, we're gonna be tough

7yrs $155 mil

Like I said UN, there is a time value to the money. If the Yankees cut him a check now, it has to be cheaper than if they pay him the $61 mil from 2015-2017.

I honestly think there is no way he plays another game in the bigs. Like I said before, he has a $6 mil escalator in there for another 7 homers. Is ARod worth $6 mil as a 40 yr old? He's gonna get cut or bought out

There are 3 years left on his contract after 2014. If he took that theoretical $50 mil and invested it at a typical ROR of 8%, he'll have $62.9 mil by the end of 2017, when the contract ends. Why do you think people take the lump sum payout instead of the annuity when they win the lottery? Because the time value of the money is worth way more than the waiting

There is a time value to money. If they buyout ARod for $50 mil instead of the $61 he's owed, ARod would likely net out even if he invested it smartly. And it would make sense for NY to drop his cap number

Workman is probably a better option right now for the starting rotation. That guy blossomed something fierce in 2013. I wouldn't be surprised if Doubront is quietly on the block in the hopes of luring a top notch SP on the trade market. The guy regressed a little in 2013, even though his WAR went up. His IP were nearly identical, his K rate plummeted, his BB rate stayed the same and his BABIP was nearly the same. His only major difference was he didn't give up as many homers. I think the sox have to seriously consider if they can maximize value by moving him now vs seeing if he continues as a 5-6 inning pitcher. It's a good problem to have, though. Depth on the mound usually dissipates on its own.

I think he has played his last game, but he hasn't earned his last dime from baseball. That contract is ironclad. If the Yankees consider the salary a sunk cost, how much do you think ARod would be worth even if he was clean at 40 coming off a full year out of baseball? I'd say a MiLB deal, maybe? He has an escalator in his contract for passing Mays, which is worth $6 mil. He's 7 HR's from passing Mays, something he likely will surpass in his next full season. NY will have to weigh whether ARod playing is worth paying out an additional $6 mil. My guess is that it isn't. Also, ARod is a prideful man. He wouldn't take being cut very well. He also won't take the abuse he's gonna get from current players very well. When you sue the union, you sue all of the players collectively. He's absolutely f***ed. Once ARod figures out that he's become a total pariah and is completely exiled from everyone in the game, he will likely crawl back into NY to negotiate a buyout and retire. I don't think his ego could take the idea that he's a FA and nobody wants him. I also don't think he wants to be cut by NY. There will be a cost in that. There will also be a cost in getting money up front instead of having to wait 3 more years to be paid. I bet ARod negotiates a buyout in 2014 at some time for around $45-50 mil.

I had a pitch back as a kid, with a strike zone attached. The old man put tape on it to simulate a strike zone and used a portable rubber as a mound. I wore that thing out

There are very few good SS's in the game to begin with and there will be fewer available at the trade deadline. If you don't sign Drew now, you're not gonna get a shot at a player of his caliber at the deadline. That being said, you shouldn't need him. It's Bogaerts' time and you've built enough good will after the improbable title run to give the kid the appropriate time to develop at the big league level

Tanaka will be the first move. Once he signs, the pitchers all will sign immediately thereafter. And once the pitching market thins out, Price and Samardzija will move. It makes no sense for the traders to move a player unless they are blown away

Agree completely UN. Did you see ARod's lawyer on 60 minutes? The guy is the definition of a scumbag, greaseball lawyer. He'll deny until the cows come home if it means he's getting a 7 figure paycheck

That's the part with no corroborating testimony or evidence. The rest is pretty in depth. The schedule this guy was on and the communication is pretty damning. Also, the $49K bribe shows ARod interfering with the investigation

They should add in to the CBA a clause reducing a player's post suspension contract to league minimum for the equivalent of 1 yr

While suspended, he will not. Once reinstated, he will

ARod is gonna be out of baseball after 2014. My guess is he's released

Anyone questioning the position of MLB in this needs to see the rerun of the 60 minutes interview. Completely damning, IMO. MLB covered Bosch's security fees because ARod was threatening to kill him

Scott Sizemore is a good depth pickup. We are still in need of a full time 3b, but our offense is much improved as is.

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1919706-how-a-rods-162-game-ban-impacts-yankees-2014-roster-payroll-offseason-plan Here is where we stand on payroll. There is no way we're under the cap if we get Tanaka. No way at all. Third base is likely to be a Kelly Johnson/Eduardo Nunez platoon. 2b will be Roberts until he folds like a deck of cards. Than I'd expect a concerted effort to cover the position with Ryan, Corban Joseph and Nunez. It's gonna be interesting, that's for sure. But NY never planned on being under $189 mil coming into the offseason. If that was the case, they'd have never offered $25 mil a yr to Cano up to the end. They're surpassing it, and by a lot, IMO. I am betting that Tanaka and one of Garza/Jimenez end up in NY. I'm also betting one late inning reliever a la Rodney or Balfour end up here as well

Release him. Hence why they should buy him out. The buyout might be, "Here's the $61 mil we owe you, don't let the door hit you on the way out!" Or it could be generated from ARods side as he states he doesn't trust NY anymore since they had the most to gain from his suspension. Not sure how it works out, but I'm pretty damn sure ARod won't play another inning for NY

Also, ARod needs only hit 6 more homers to trigger a $6 mil escalator. If you consider his salary a sunk cost, is ARod worth $6 mil as a 39.5 yr old in 2015?