jacksonianmarch

The hot stove is still rolling, but the Yankees are said to have exited the Cole negotiations as they wouldn't accept anything without Gleyber and there wasn't really any fire to the smoke of the Machado rumors. Unless something falls into their laps, the Yankees are okay with rolling the way they are. There is clearly a shot at signing Frazier or Moustakas if their price tags drop considerably, but considering that we might be done, here are some numbers on the guys currently in the lineup. 1. Brett Gardner. Gardner can expect to spend some time in LF, CF and some at DH to rest his legs. His days of a 40 SB speedster are over, but as Johnny Damon did, he has swapped out the speed for power. He still swiped 23 bases last year and he hit a career high 21HR. He's reached 16HR 3 of the last 4 seasons as well. Gardy will be 34 when the season starts and turns 35 in August, so he is no spring chicken. His line from 2017 was very good for him at .264/.350/.428 and he put up 4.9WAR (ESPN) based on resurgent defensive marks in LF. It is clearly possible that Gardner regresses as he is beyond his prime, although his late career power has added to his OPS capabilities. I still think his speed should allow him to steal 20-25 bases as he has in all but 1 full season in his career. I also think the power will probably continue in the 15-20HR range as he has added pop as he aged. He's been a .264 career hitter and has hit within 10 points of that the last 8 seasons (excluding his missed season of 2012). His fangraphs projection is .252/.341/.425 with 15HRs. That's pretty reasonable, although maybe slightly pessimistic on the HR front. Either way, I'd take it. My prediction .255/.345/.425 with 18HR, 20SBs 2. Aaron Judge. Judge is probably going to play a mishmash of LF, RF and DH. Boone has even said he could play CF, although I'd expect that in less than 10 games. Judge is a colossal power hitter. His season from last year was .284/.422/.627 with 52HR and 9 steals. He is surprisingly athletic as evidenced by his +7UZR/150 and 9 steals on the year. Fangraphs has a confusing projection of .254/.369/.518 with 37HR and 7 steals. If Judge hits .254, he will hit 40+HR's and if he hits .254, I'd expect his walk totals to be obscene, likely pushing his OBP closer to .400. Judge proved last year that his power is special and aside from maybe Stanton, is the best in the game. Also, in the playoffs, the umpires were effectively convinced to call the real strike zone starting in the ALCS. Now that Judge is no longer a rookie and has entrenched himself as the face of the MLB, I assume he will get some better treatment in the strike zone. That being said, a .370BABIP likely isn't going to continue, but his barrel rate (best in baseball) should at least keep it over .300. I do think the K% drops down a few percentage points (he was around 25% in the minors) but he'll never be a big contact guy. I highly doubt he adds to his rookie year, but I don't think he drops down too far. My prediction .265/.400/.580 45HR 10SB 3. Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is probably going to play LF, RF and DH in NYY. Stanton has been the pre-eminent power hitter in baseball and now he moves to a park where HR's are easier to hit in half his games (not to mention playing in BOS, BAL, and TOR 27 total times rather than NYM, ATL, and WAS). He is also being added to a prolific lineup that is better than the one he left. Stanton will have guys on base and will have protection behind him. His 2017 line was insane at .281/.376/.631 with 59HR and 2SBs. His fangraphs projection is nearly the same at .283/.376/.640 with 55HR and 3SB. One must also process that going from obscurity to NY isn't easy. I don't think 2018 is the year Stanton cracks 60+HR (that'll be 2019), but I do expect him to be a fearsome hitter. My prediction .265/.360/.600 48HR 4. Gary Sanchez. Sanchez will be catching likely 110 games or so and DH'ing a fair amount after that. After a blistering 2 months in 2016 that nearly nabbed him a ROY, Sanchez didn't disappoint offensively smacking 33HR. The thing that most people don't realize is that Sanchez only played 122 games as he missed a month with a bicep strain. He just turned 25, so he is just entering his prime age as well. If he didn't miss that time, he'd have slugged 40HRs. His 2017 line was .278/.345/.531 with 33HR and 2SB. His fangraphs projection is a bit puzzling. They have him at .269/.334/.515 with 30HR. I am wondering why they think he will decline entering his age 25 season and I am wondering why they don't think a healthy Sanchez could surpass his 2017 total? Sanchez was more of a contact hitter in the minors than he was last season and I anticipate that he makes a bit more contact as he matures, hence I think his BA can rise. His BA wasn't incredibly lucky in 2017 (.307BABIP) so a big drop would be better on his luck turning rather than anything else. I think he will hit more balls out of the park and put more balls in play, hence I think his BA can rise modestly. Either way, I think Sanchez builds off 2017 and improves. My prediction .285/.360/.550 with 38HR 5. Greg Bird. Bird will be our every day 1b. Bird is finally healthy and he proved in September and October that he isn't to be forgotten in this lineup. His 2017 line was entirely terrible (.190/.288/.422) but his track record and finish to 2017 points to something much more. Fangraphs has him at .255/.345/.496 with 30HR. I would take that any day of the week. Although I feel a healthy Bird in this lineup playing half his games in Yankee Stadium might see some more helium in the HR totals. Also, the fangraphs numbers point away from one thing Bird showed in his minor league time, and that is a knack for ridiculously high OBP's. In this lineup, Bird will see balls to deposit, but he will also walk a ton. I am bullish on Bird here, assuming he can be healthy. My prediction .260/.380/.500 with 35HR 6. Didi Gregorius. Didi will be our SS for 2017. Most people don't remember that Didi missed 5 weeks of the season and still set the single season HR record for the Yankee franchise. His 2017 line was really good at .287/.318/.478. His left handed swing is perfect for NY stadium as he has a knack for pulling fly balls into the seats. Fangraphs has him at .270/.315/.436 with 21HR. I think the power might be a bit light as he hit 25HR in 136 games last year, but not by much. My prediction .275/.315/.470 with 27HR 7. Aaron Hicks. Hicks will be in the lineup as a CFer exclusively when he plays. Hicks missed time with an oblique twice and was limited to 88 games, but what an 88 games it was. He put up a .266/.372/.475 line with 15HR and 10SB. Hicks fangraphs predicts .253/.341/.425 with 19HR and 12SB. I'd absolutely take that, although his 2017 performance points to a more upper 20s HR total, who knows if he can stay healthy enough to see the field enough to hit those out. Hicks devours lefties (.900+ OPS) but for once in his career, he actually hit well vs righties (.800ish OPS). I honestly have no idea which Hicks will show. Will it be the guy who was on pace for a 6WAR season if he didn't miss time, or is it the underachieving former top prospect he was before he blossomed last season. I think it is going to be a blend. While I don't think he is an .850OPS player, I do think a near .800OPS is safer here. My prediction .250/.350/.450 with 22HR and 18SB That's a prediction on my end of 233HR for the top 7 in the lineup. As for the final two spots...

I think he can get $40 mil AAV but I doubt he sniffs a $400 mil guarantee. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I expect Harper to get a creative $300 mil guarantee with an opt out after 3-4 front loaded seasons on a 10 year contract If I were a signing GM, I’d do the following 10 year $300 mil contract. First 4 years $40 mil AAV. Opt out after 4th year. Opt out is null and void if Harper missed 150 games due to injury in first 4 seasons.

I am incredibly excited to see what this offense can do. I do hope that we end up with Torres and Andujar at the big league level and the powerful 1-7 in the lineup can carry these kids while they figure it out. I was looking at the offense one more time and the amount of power is impressive. Gardner 20HR power Judge 50HR power Stanton 50HR power Sanchez 35-40HR power Bird 30-35 HR power Gregorius 25HR power Hicks 20-25HR power Just the homer hitters alone from 1-7 can reasonably club 240 HR on their own let alone backups and the kids and that’s a pretty conservative estimate barring poor health. They can carry Torres if his bat is behind or Andujar even if his glove is lagging. There has never been a better time to break in rookies

I am sure Boras has a deal that JD is very happy with. But Boras isn't about happy. He is about "over the moon" ecstatic. He wants the sox to bid against themselves. If I were DD, I'd be entirely fine with a vesting option. I'd even tie it to PA's within the first 3 seasons, which should still encompass JD's prime.

It's very hard to compare WAR between a reliever and a starter. Right now, Miranda would be at AAA for you guys. If you kept Miley, he'd have been released. Instead you have Smith and you're top heavy in your rotation.

Ariel Miranda sucks. He put up a 5+ ERA with a BABIP of .236. His HR rate was over 2 per 9IP. That isn't a typo. I know the sox didn't deal Miranda, but he was moved for Miley, so I get the comparison. The sox won that deal. Carson Smith didn't die or have a serious shoulder issue, he had TJS. Big whoop. He still came back throwing smoke. My guess is Carson returns as a good setup man and if he goes ever further into the elite category, he could make it easier to let Kimbrel walk. You got that for Wade Miley who hasn't found the strike zone since he was in the desert

There is no way the sox could do a 1 yr megadeal due to cap concerns and there is no way JD would accept one. Boras is patient and since the market for starters and hitters right now is held up by him with Arrieta and JD, we all have to wait with him. The market this year isn't as epically bad as last season's was. JD had a career season last year. There is no point in taking a one year pact and then going back on the market when Harper, Kershaw, Keuchel, Machado and Donaldson will be out there. He's signing this year. But Boras is entirely content with waiting and hence, we all have to wait

Absolutely. I think he was sick of being burned by kids with $10 million arms or bats and 10 cent heads. Every system has its share of knuckleheads, but his recent drafts have seemed to shy away from those types. I think he was sick of the Heathcott/Mateo's of the world

You heard just as much from me the past few seasons even though I knew my team wasn't up to snuff. This offseason is a little different

The article I read from the scout did note his strong work ethic. He is apparently on the field 5 hours before minor league games working on his footwork, so his defensive shortcomings aren't from lack of trying. If he can play slightly below average D and mature as a ballplayer then we have something great. If he is Rafael Devers bad, then we need to ensure we are getting Devers' bat as well, which I don't think is in the cards for Andujar

You are a big fan of regression even when there isn't actual regression, lol. Greg Bird effectively missed 5 months. We lost Gregorius and Sanchez for a month. If we have good health, even if 2b and 3b are manned by kids, we should see a far better offense than the geeks are predicting. I also looked at the predictions for Judge on fangraphs. It's entirely ridiculous. They are predicting 38HRs but only an SLG of .518? They're saying he will hit near .260 but have an OBP of .360? This doesn't make sense.

Josh Donaldson's dad went away when Josh was little. Groome's dad is going away the year after he signed with the sox. Big difference there. Also, the guys above all fell on hard times after proving they can do it in the majors. I am not saying he has no worth. I am saying that there are enough questions to devalue him until he proves it on the field.

It's going to be hard for him to be as good as last season. I'd still think he can put up an easy .900+ OPS. He wont be a liability, lets put it that way. Even in his slumping second half, he put up a .939 OPS

Ells can use his NTC all he wants, but all he will be is a punch runner and occasional starter in NY. If they find a deal for him where he’ll start, I doubt he’d turn it down

If I remember correctly, buyouts INCREASE a tax hit. The tax hit is guaranteed money divided by guaranteed years. Lets say you have a 5 yr $125 mil contract with a $25 mil 6th yr option that has a $10 mil buyout. The AAV of the contract, IIRC, will be calculated as $135 mil over 5 years. You don't want a buyout nowadays. What you may want is an option with no buyout or a mutual option that allows the player to opt in at a lower cost.

Guys, just stfu and get over it

No, they don't. They want at least one big league ready guy. Look at the Ozuna deal. The headliner will be their starting CFer this year. The Stanton deal was different due to the money involved. Also, you need to stop pumping Groome as a trade chip. You're stuck with him until he progresses further in the system unless you want to give him away. Yes, his stuff is electric, but the off the field stuff plus his health and command make him a lottery ticket at this point. If he gets through this year healthy without any off the field garbage and he locates, then you have something to trade (although you probably would want to hold him at that point)

I'm not so sure about that. Losing Hanley, Pom and Kimbrel will grant you $44 mil to play with. You're likely losing half of that in arb raises. You're looking at the situation of either/or. You can either get a top of the line closer or a #2-3 starter on the open market, and right now there is nobody better than Kimbrel. That's why I am saying that the sox start losing pieces after this season.

There was a good article on ESPN (I know, an oxymoron) about how the time is now for Gleyber. There was another unaffiliated scout's take on the NYY farm system with the scout calling Gleyber a future 3-4 time all star before he hits FA. The pros are gushing over this kid, but the ESPN article hit the nail on the head. Our offense is going to be stupid good. Our 1-7 will be difficult for any team to hang with, hence we aren't looking for offense initially out of 2b and 3b. Torres is a plus defender already with the capability to be a GG winner one day (legitimately, not popularity based). So it is easier for us to carry a rookie who's bat may take a few months to arrive as long as the defense is there. The same may not be said about Andujar. Andujar's bat right now might be a smidge ahead of Gleyber's, but the defense is not. Andujar is a worker, and while he isn't destined to be a plus defender, he has the capability to be at least an average one. But he isn't one yet as his footwork still needs work. This leads to ESPN's logical conclusion that the Yankees are likely to sign a veteran 3b and plan to hand the job to Gleyber in May after he shakes off the rust in AAA (ie they delay his clock). While I wish we would just let Wade and Andujar start the year and have Gleyber take one of the jobs come May, I cannot disagree with their conclusion. If Andujar comes out slugging and hits .280 with 20HR but plays minus defense, he might have a positive WAR, but be a minus for us just because the offense is going to be tremendous anyway.

That's not gonna happen. Realmuto is a 3+ WAR catcher with power and good defense. The Marlins are going to want a 2-3 prospect package with one prospect being MLB ready. They don't want a limited ceiling defensive catcher

I don't think I am. You lost nothing from a 93 win team for 2018 yet got wiped out by the WS champion in 4 games in the ALDS. You're not good enough as is to beat Houston or Cleveland without major luck and currently are either neck and neck or behind NYY depending on health. You start to lose big pieces after 2018. You've got room from your current salary to the biggest penalty limit, enough to add one marquee player. Your biggest weakness was a power outage and a lack of cohesion on offense. You were missing one big bat from 2016 when your offense was best in baseball. If you don't get another big bat then you are hoping for a return to prominence from your offense without an upgrade. Will it happen? Maybe, but probably not. If DD doesn't upgrade his biggest weakness, though, the offenses you'll be facing from NY, CLE, and HOU will be markedly better, putting you at a disadvantage. DD has to get JD. He just has to. The window has been open for 2 seasons. It remains open for one more. After that, pieces start to move away or get far more expensive limiting your flexibility and depth. The sox have to go for it this year and Boras knows it. Hence why he is dragging this out to get more from DD

Your offense must be upgraded. Relying on “positive regression” is moronic. If you upgrade the offense and then the guys improve around him, then good for you. If you do nothing and your offense drops further then DD might be out of a job. The cap hell thats coming will limit the options going forward. You have to win in 2018

I get that his stuff is special. But he’s probably heading back to A ball this year, meaning that he’s probably 2-3 years away from the majors. He’s had injury and command issues. His dad is more than a distraction, the 20 yr old was raised by a gun and drug runner. Whether anyone wants to admit it or now, that’s a big red flag. The kid dropped in the draft due to maturity issues as well. I’m not saying he’s not a prospect. I am saying he’s lost enough luster to not be a headliner for a major deal should you trade him. He’s enough of a “toxic asset” that the sox are going to have to keep him and see what he does, which may not be a bad thing for you guys

We signed Jace Peterson. Color me unimpressed

Also, wouldn’t it just be karma for DD if the sox do eventually move Xander plus for Machado and Xander outplays him for one season?