I agree there. That being said, it sets us up for what the sox are heading towards. I'd rather not blow the wad on a single guy and lose the pipeline we have created to the bigs. This team is loaded for bear right now. If Gray is right, which he seems to be, it lessens the need significantly. A top 4 of Sevy, Tanaka, Gray, CC is pretty tough. We have the guys in the minors with the kind of stuff that can rival anybody, they just need to stay healthy and get their location honed. I wonder if the prudent approach is to fill the 5 spot with a guy like Happ, who should come at a modest price, assuming German doesn't start to tighten up his hold on it. Then either sign a shorter term FA like Morton at the end of the season and have an open competition for the 5th spot with the hopes that Sheffield wins it. After 2019, Gray walks and after 2020, Tanaka walks. Rather than package our prospects into one great white hope, I'd almost rather see if we can develop a starter per year and rebuild our rotation. I doubt we re-sign Gray. I doubt we would re-sign Tanaka. I doubt we re-sign CC after this year.
If we package Sheff, Adams and Frazier, we can probably get DeGrom, but that leaves us opening holes that we could have filled with them. If I could predict the future, which I clearly cannot, here is how I would develop/groom our roster
For 2018, hope German's stuff translates into production and he at least holds down the fort as 5th starter. Consider dealing for JA Happ if German cannot do this. Drury stays in system as the jack of all trades guy should anyone get hurt.
For 2019, let CC walk, sign Charlie Morton for 3 seasons (he is 35) for good money and let him run at the top with Gray, Tanaka, and Sevy. German, Adams and Sheff will battle for the 5th starter role with the hope, IMO, that Sheff wins it as he is the most ballyhooed prospect. On the position player side, let Gardner walk and promote Frazier to play LF/backup CF. Let Walker walk and promote Drury to be a backup option all over the diamond.
For 2020, whomever won the 5th spot last yr moves up to 4th. Let Gray walk and promote the next hot shot to the 5th spot. Keep backfilling the rotation with high end talent. Let Hicks walk here and hopefully Florial is ready to assume CF duties.
It isn't like we are some middling team trying to get a leg up. We have the best win % in baseball (by a nose) but the Yanks and Sox are way above the closest competitor. We are also 6th in the AL in starters ERA with really a negligible difference between us and the 4th place team, Boston (3.94 vs 3.87). And that is with Sonny Gray being lost in the weeds until his last 2 starts and Tanaka being effective, albeit a high ERA guy, which typically would come down as the season comes along (Tanaka already had his annual rough patch)
We lead the lead in runs scored per game and it isn't close (0.3 per game over Boston) and lead by a nose in OPS even with Sanchez struggling, Stanton not up to his MVP caliber and Bird missing 2 months. We were one game from the WS last yr and this year have bludgeoned the team that knocked us out 5-2 in our 7 head to head matchups. I think continuing with the pipeline rather than blowing our load on a single player to create a window isn't a prudent idea, although I doubt it wont be considered