yagmaster

Because I don't want to start ANOTHER fight in this thread, and because I respect both of your baseball knowledge, I'm going to leave it at that. I might start a thread about it later if I get antsy.

He is also making $16,600,000 to hit under 30 homeruns and drive in under 100 RBI's at Coors' Field.

Actually, it is the most accurate predicting scheme is the business. Just because you don't understand how it works doesn't mean it "blows". Obviously, it's not going to predict exactly what every player is going to do every season, but what it does do is give a very good baseline as to what to expect from a player, such as expecting Papelbon to be more effective as a closer than as a starter.

Hey guys, it's been a while but I decided to come back and give my opinion on this issue. There has been so much press about the factors in Papelbon's sudden move to the bullpen, be it his own desires, the team's necessity, and what have you. In my opinion, none of this matters. All that matters is that he is now the closer, and how this effects the team. I think there are several factors that need to be considered when looking at this move. The first and most obvious, is how Papelbon will perform compared to how he would have performed as a starter. You can look at this in two different ways, as a scout and as a stathead. Being a Baseball Prospectus subscriber, I have been following his PECOTA projections recently. As a starter, he would have been projected to have an ERA of 4.03 and win 10 games. As a reliever, PECOTA projects him to shave off almost exactly a point to 3.04. This is because, as a general rule, relievers don't usually translate to great starters. I think that stats show that he will be an ace reliever, but maybe not have a future as an ace starter. When you look at Papelbon from scout's perspective, you see two great pitches. Blazing fastball. Dirty splitter. After that, he really doesn't have another major league pitch. Yes, he might be able to improve his curveball, and yes, anyone can learn to throw a decent changeup, but as it is now, Papelbon has ace closer stuff, and middle of the rotation starter stuff. We also don't know how much his stuff will suffer as he gets deeper in the game. To me, we will get most value out of Papelbon being a starter. Another important factor is Papelbon's health. I am by no means an expert, but I have never heard of a reliever being in more jeopardy than a starter until the Papelbon situation. I really have a hard time buying the idea that turning him into a starter will save his arm. That is all I am going to say on this issue. The only factors left to consider are short and long term results the team will have with this move. Many people are calling this a shortsighted blunder; one that will be good for this season but not for the future. I couldn't disagree more. For one thing, PECOTA projected the Red Sox to win 93 games with Paps starting, and it has lowered this projection to 90 with him closing. This can be explained by having Tavarez as our number five starter rather than Paps. So if it's not good in the short run, why the hell would we do it? Here's the reason. Having watched Jon Lester pitch last season, I think he has ace material. If he can comeback from the cancer treatment, which supposedly went as well as it could have, and he can improve his command (he's 23 for crying out loud), I think he will be hurling quality starts for the Sox by at the latest. If Papelbon were starting, we would be down an ace reliever and also would have two many starting pitchers. What I think lots of people are forgetting is that Papelbon is 26. He still has 10+ years as a major league pitcher, hopefully closer to 15. If Hansen becomes the reliever that everyone thought he would, it is not impossible for Paps to go back to the rotation again. Also, in his ROOKIE year, he had one of the best seasons a closer has EVER had. If he even approaches those numbers over the next decade (hopefully as a Red Sox), he will be sure bet for the Hall Of Fame. I really think people need to stop complaining about the move and be happy that we get to watch Papelbon more than every five days.

I wouldn't say ideal, i think ideal is not trading away blue chip prospects for bodies to simply fill holes. I like Crisp, but do not like lugo. Would keeping Cora at SS until the all star break and trading for izturis make anyone sick? Wells and Shoppach for izturis and brazoban?

I'd be very surprised if you were sober when you posted that.

I don't understand why fans are so down on Red Sox management. I think it's been a good offseason thus far. The significant moves we have and have not made: Acquiring Beckett, Mota, and Lowell for prospects (good prospects, but still prospects) Acquring starting second baseman (and allstar) Mark Loretta for backup catcher Doug Mirabelli Acquiring prospect/reliver Van Buren for no one in particular Trading Renteria for best prospect in baseball Andy Marte NOT getting ripped off by trading Manny Ramirez Signing Rudy Seanez NOT overpaying Johnny Damon Yes we have holes, but we still have pitching to trade to fill these holes. I'm not worried at all about this season; I already like the '06 Sox more than the '05 Sox.

I feel much better about this trade now. Crisp is a good player, and as long as we don't have to trade Marte AND Mota I have no problems with him as a replacement for Johnny. Clement for Crisp would save us so much money over the next few years.

I would not mind Rich Aurilia, he's a better hitter and similar defender to Alex Gonzalez.

This trade makes me absolutely sick. Why are we exploring this when we can get Jeremey Reed, who has more potential and is younger and cheaper than Crisp, for ARROYO. I think the Sox front office would be out of their minds to do this trade. KEEP MARTE!

The more I hear about Reed the more I like him. I say save $11 million a year (plus whatever Clement is making) and go for this deal. Maybe get a prospect added in there too?

Carlos Beltran is an elite player in the MLB and has been for years. He had a bad season last after signing a huge contract with a new team. That is not unusual for players; I guarantee he puts up more typical numbers next season, be it for the Mets or any other team.

I really would have no complaints to see Manny in a Red Sox uniform at the beginning of the season. It's been pretty clear for a while that we won't get good value, so why not keep him? We need to focus our efforts on Damon, trading Wells, and getting an SS and 1B. Manny can be Manny in Boston one more season.

I think Reed is a good young player (he was a rookie last year) and I think this would be a good trade...if we can't resign Damon to a reasonable price. I think Damon is the best leadoff hitter in baseball and losing him would be hard. If we do however, I would not mind taking on this promising young future gold glover.

I said 90 - 95, I don't think they are as bad as people say. At least a couple of the young players could have big seasons.