Isaac Paredes Isn't Alex Bregman, But He Can Make Mincemeat of Fenway Park

Now that Alex Bregman's exit has been analyzed, scrutinized, and coped with in every possible way, it's time to move onto something far more productive: figuring out how on earth the Boston Red Sox can go about replacing his production.

As a disclaimer, it's worth noting that the real answer to that question is "they can't." Bregman, a three-time All-Star, brought such a special mix of intangibles and superstar-caliber production to the team on a daily basis that asking anyone else to fill those shoes — even Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette — is a fool's errand. However, it'd be even more foolish to admit that, throw our hands up in the air, and give up on the search. Marcelo Mayer is the internal candidate most likely to see time at the hot corner in the wake of Bregman leaving (he did so last year when Bregman went down with a quad injury), but he's largely unproven at the top level and is also a candidate to fill the team's wide-open second base job.

Instead, let's direct our attention to perhaps the best trade fit still available to the Red Sox: Isaac Paredes. A two-time All-Star in his own right, the soon-to-be 27-year-old comes with two remaining years of team control via arbitration. He's also a legitimate power-hitting threat, hitting 90 combined home runs over the past four years while posting an ISO above .200 in three of those campaigns. He's also patient (11.1% career walk rate) and isn't all too prone to whiffs, chases, or strikeouts. It's a pretty advanced offensive profile for someone who's just now entering his physical prime.

So, what's the downside? Well, he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, nor does he barrel or square it up very frequently. His contact metrics and batted-ball data are all rather sour on his ability to provide impact at the plate in any meaningful form.

Which begs the question: Where does his power come from?

This won't be some deep-dive statistical analysis on a player who is currently slated to spend the next two years in Houston. If the Red Sox acquire him in a trade (as has been oft-rumored since Bregman packed his bags for the Windy City), then we can get into the nitty-gritty behind what Paredes does and doesn't do well, and what we should expect from him in Boston. For now, let's just appreciate something he does better than perhaps any hitter in the sport: pulling the ball in the air.

*Chart courtesy of Baseball Savant

That is such an absurd batted-ball profile, and also a ridiculously tantalizing concept when one considers that the Green Monster is 310 feet down the line. Even the fabled Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Daikin Park are a good five or ten feet beyond that (even if they aren't quite as high as the Monster). Paredes isn't just a pull hitter — he pulls the ball down the line as often as anyone else in the league.

For reference, Bregman ranked 37th in the league last year in pull air rate (24.4%). If you're wondering why that stat matters, take it from Baseball Savant: "From 2022-24, while only 17.5% of batted balls that were 'pulled airballs,' that subset was responsible for 66% of all home runs. Pulled airballs in that time produced a .547 average, 1.227 slugging percentage and .733 wOBA, making them an extremely valuable outcome. Airballs that were not pulled, by comparison, had a .319 average, .527 slugging percentage and .353 wOBA, considerably less valuable."

Seems like a good thing to be good at, right? Well, Paredes ranked first in the league with a 38.5% pull air rate, 0.1% ahead of Cal Raleigh, who led the sport with 60 home runs last year. For his career (2020-25), Paredes' frequency of pulling the ball in the air (32.2%) is nearly double the league average in that time (16.7%). Even if the height of the Monster would knock down a few of his homers, it's not difficult to imagine him leading the league in doubles every year.

Now, beyond that superlative skill, there's a lot of places where Paredes falls short of Bregman. He's a far worse defender. He strikes out more and walks less. He's run reverse splits in multiple seasons. And, of course, he doesn't bring the pedigree nor leadership of a two-time World Series champion to the clubhouse.

But, with Bregman (and Nolan Arenado) off the board, third base options have grown scarce — the team will almost certainly have to settle for a downgrade in at least one way or another. Upside must be prioritized, even at the expense of some serious pitfalls or red flags. And as far as extreme profiles go, there's hardly one that fits Fenway better than Paredes'.