I don't think it's decided. IMO it will be decided in ST. Leon has come back to earth, dragging his OPS back to real life at ~.600, which is about the same as Vazquez. The difference between the two is that Leon's .600 is skewed by the time he was >.800 while Vaz .600 is the product of having consistently been a poorer than average hitter. We rode Leon's streak while he was hot but now he's the Leon we bought from the Nats with a BA below the Mendoza line and an OPS of
And in a related issue....
I'm never sure how many appearances constitute a meaningful sample size and IMO "meaningful sample size" differs depending on what one wants to get from it. For me when talking about an established player, one year is meaningful in determining what a player probably "is", but it has little to no bearing on what they're going to do in their very next AB. Leon is a good example of that. During his short career Leon has been an abysmally poor hitter and if one looked at his previous year they'd think this guy will only get a hit in about 1 in 5 AB's, but he went through a period of time when it seemed like he couldn't make an out.
That's why I put more stock in recent appearances than I do in a career average and why I will usually ride a hot hand. If a reserve player goes 3-4 in one game I'd be sure he got to play in the next game. I like to think of in-season statistics in terms of a one month rolling average, all the while realizing that this player may go into the dumpster tomorrow. That's why I found it frustrating to watch Leon flailing away at the ball during the last part of the season while Vaz was on the bench. We didn't know what Vaz had offensively but IMO it was probably better than what Leon was producing, with no drop off in defense.
Which brings me back around to why I think Vazquez will be our opening day catcher! He spent some time with the Pawsox working on the offensive side of his game, and even if it didn't work he's still going to be better beside the plate than Leon and at least as good behind it. And if he did learn in Pawtucket... his offense is a plus.