I pretty much agree with what you wrote. The bottom line is that this will not be a rebuilding year. This team does not need a major overhaul. It has most of the pieces to make it to the postseason in 2012, if it can stay relatively healthy.
Our offensive production from right field last year sucked. We were one of the worst teams, if not the worst team, in most of the offensive categories from the right field position. It has to get better, as does Crawford in LF. I'm expecting a drop off from Ellsbury, but his drop should not outweigh the gain from the other OF spots.
I am concerned about Youk. IMO, he is NOT solid defensively, and I worry about his ability to stay healthy. That said, if he can stay healthy, his offensive numbers are solid for a 3B, albeit not as good as when he played 1B.
As far as pitching is concerned, I think that pretty much anyone we slot in the rotation will be better than Lackey was last year. We'll have Buchholz back, hopefully healthy. One solid #3 or #4 pitcher, and our rotation looks pretty good with Aceves or Bard in the #5 slot. I don't like the idea of both of them going to the rotation.
Melancon, Bard, Aceves, possibly Jenks, can be solid late inning relievers. Since one of Bard or Aceves will likely be in the rotation, I would like to see one more late inning arm picked up. I don't know that it will be either Bailey or Madson but we'll see. The other BP slots can be filled by the names you mentioned and/or some cheap reclamation projects willing to take a minor league deal.