jung

And there it is.......very true.....the Sox have boxed themselves into a corner. No tickie...no shirtie The "plan" is built around a smallish ballpark with the brass adding seating a little at a time as need be but never enough to prevent them from putting on the squeeze and charging ever high ticket prices. But the number of people willing to pay such prices and even companies looking to impress their clientele starts to go the wrong way unless the Sox are playing exciting, competitive ball.....or.....unless they have a few ballplayers of interest that together form the core of an interesting team with an eye toward the immediate future as in next year.

We had a recent thread were we were talking about somebody...Beckectt and Lester and Buch I think. You could argue that those two guys as the guys at the top of the rotation left about 50-60 innings between them for the pen to pitch...that is just between them. You expect your 4 and 5 to leave innings out there. When the guys at the top are leaving innings out there, you are doomed as a bullpen.

I have not looked but a number of the payrolls are at, just under or just over $100m as I recall. So I would bet that $120m is top 10. Although it is all relative...that sort of comment would suggest top 5. Probably needs to be up around $140-$150 to be top 5.

That is a good point regarding comments by Sox management that they would have one of the "highest payrolls in baseball" for the 2013 season. Maybe in fact that was the Sox effort at priming the ticket booth activity. They could always fall back to the ever popular, "we tried but XYZ negotiations spiraled out of control due to the stupidity of other teams in their willingness to overpay." As for what they actually do...we have already seen the result when the Sox spend tremendous amounts of money...stupidly. In fact while I commended LL for his comment about not being aggressive enough with prospects....his comment about the payroll was not very bright. I think it would have made more sense for him to have said that the Sox were "going to field a fun to watch, competitive team for 2013, one that peaks fan interest and inspires fan empathy and support." That is really what we want. I happen to think that putting that sort of team on the field for 2013 while planning on less hope and more substance for 2014 is the right thing for them to do. If the Sox start from the premise that they have to spend X amount of $$ or the fan base will be uninspired, they are as likely to screw up as they have in the past. If they take the approach that building an effort that at least will yield a shot at a WC and will result in an interesting, fun and inspirational team, then I think their perspective will be correct and their result will likely be better.

2013 will see the LDS series return to 2-2-1 with the team with the better record starting at home and finishing at home. That will make it harder for the WC to survive that round. Since MLB appears or claims to be dead set on making the better records and especially the division championships more valuable I would not be totally surprised to see the LCS go from a 2-3-2 formate to a 2-2-3 format in cases where a WC team has gotten that far and is facing a division winner. That would force the WC team to play the last 3 games of the series away if they have gotten that far. One driving force there might be the fear of seeing two teams get to the WS only to have one team just completely overwhelm the other...a real embarrassment for one league president or the other and a real let down for MLB in general as the preference would be for tight, hard fought, 7 game WS. One team did get overwhelmed by the other this year but for reasons that likely have little to do with the schedule or the format. At any rate i don't think they are much interested in seeing a 5 seed get all the way to the WS and end up facing a 1 seed there. I realize that sounds gimmicky as heck but this is what happens when you start monkeying around with what was a good system cause you desire a particular result in attendance and post season success. MLB has left itself open now to the possibility of a league 5 seed getting all the way to the WS and while they are already trying to have their cake and eat it to, by scheming to prevent that, I don't expect them to stop here. The experience of the Cards team really helped them in 2012. Frankly they never should have gotten out of the Nats series. The Nats suddenly realized where they were in game 5 of that series and suffered a terminal case of apple-throatitis. Then again if the Nats had found a way to get their kid wonder-pitcher to the post season, they might have rolled over the Cards even with their edge in experience.

There is a big hole between looking like last, acting like last and giving the fans a shot at a WC (useless as it may be). I don't think the Sox have to make a run at the division. They just have to give the fans something that most baseball fans have to live on year in and year out. Couple that with a chance to glimpse what the near term future might look like in the form of the guys that are ready to play up here this year and i suspect the Sox will pull decent attendance out of that. I agree that "saying the words" was a mistake on Theo's part because of the implications. However if the Sox upper management and baseball ops guys knew when to talk, when to keep their mouths shut, knew what to say when they did open their mouths and stayed on point as group instead of contradicting each other, they would save themselves a world of trouble. They have not managed to get much of that right all the way up to their erstwhile boss for a long time now. I do credit LL for coming out and saying that they have not been aggressive enough with their prospects because that was an admission that was accurate for one, honest for another and not covering in the drippy, soupy sentimentalism that so often permeates Sox communications to the fan base.

The Sox are really not in a position to just give up on seasons or even look like they are. Their ticket prices are to high and the "Nation" has grown used to the Sox competing unlike other places where the ticket prices are substantially lower and fans only hope their teams might compete. If the Sox look like last place, their ticket sales will very likely plummet. I even think the number of companies buying tickets would fall considerably. So their stuck. They are built on a model that requires some level of effort on their part even if it is a facade. In fact we often talk that facade here. I think that at a minimum the Sox will have to look like they are at least making an effort for a WC (regardless of how useless I think the WC has become) and at least for this season give the Fans a glimpse into the future and let us see some of the young guys play. At least we can muse over whether we think they are worth a darn or not. I don't think they want to be testing Sox fan resiliency in this economy.

Well the Sox saved $6M and they spent $3M. Do that a few times and you get to put a healthy chuck of change back into your pocket. Probably has a line item on the balance sheet, along with brick and bat sales.

I doubt they are going to punt it away but they are not going to compete for the division....just to far behind in players with to much ground to make up. They might be able to make one of the WC's. Frankly I don't think much of either of the WC's now. MLB should have left it like it was. The one WC deserved as much a shot at the crown as the division leaders did. The way it is now, even the 1st WC is somewhat handicapped. The Sox just aren't going to end up with enough pitching to compete for the division and the WC's are as good as DOA. Heck I want them to get Hamilton this year. Having Hamilton and Ortiz in the middle of this year's lineup would be a hell of a lot more potent than these Swisher/Napoli lineups are gonna be. Considering how light there starting pitching is likely to be, they won't have enough juice to get past the Yanks pitching or the Jays hitting. So they might make 3rd and have a bunch of fun getting there but I don't see them making it past third in the AL East. That might be enough for the second WC but I doubt it and even if it is enough for a second WC. That and a quarter will get you a cup a coffee.

Wilson is going to stay out west. Soria would due fine although I would love to have Wilson.

They don't have to finish last in 2013 and well they should not.

I suspect the next time the Sox could actually put a really top of the line closer to good use will be 2014. What would a really top of the line closer have gotten them in 2012? How much of a dif do we really think it might make in 2013?

I don't want to see them sit on the money. I just don't want them to spend it all in one off season cause I don't think the players are out there to spend it on in one offseason. However I know I have already indicated what I would like them to do....I don't want multiple guys on deals long enough to push them right into guys like the B's making there way north next year. I want them to put somebody with Ortiz to become what Detroit has now and what we used to have in Ortiz and Manny and have that set for the B's and the players that make it through this year to fill in around for 2014. A couple pitchers work out plus planning one major pitching signing between now and the beginning of the 2014 season and we may just be loaded for bear for 2014 having had an interesting but futile 2013.

I would not go Sanchez either. The Sox will have to go the short term contract route ala the kinds of guys that "Pal" as recommending a week ago to get them through 2013. At least they should fill out the rotation and who knows...they may stick. But they have to keep Lester...have to unless he gets packaged up with somebody and brings back somebody better than Lester.

And that is sort of the point though Bell.....normally you would say a really solid rotation would not position Sanchez at the top of the pack. In the case of the Sox they would start the year with a bunch of IFs and would need them to all fall their way even for the best we have to offer to slide past Sanchez. To quote Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan to German propaganda agent Daniel Dusseldorf's comment that the "Statue of Liberty is kaput". "Disconcerting"

A little leery of Jurjens. He did well against us but he is just the kind of guy that ate us alive last year. Come to think of it Jurjens kinds of pitchers just had their way with some of the AL East teams. We always think of pitchers with success in the AL East as being able to bring the heat and really guys that could locate last year just ate us alive....in some cases ate the Yanks alive as well and the O's and the Jays. The entire division of hitters was way to aggressive last year. Not sure if that was a culmination of years building up to last year. Not sure if they are going to smarten up this year. But they were made to look pretty feeble on occasion. Maybe that is a recommendation for Jurjens. I cannot believe hitting coaches didn't just pull every last hair out of their heads last year and will try something to return hitters to some sanity.

I doubt there would even be a question about Sanchez being the best starter we would have unless they brought in another starter with Sanchez. I think Lester would struggle to knock Sanchez off that perch this year although he would pull it off if he came all the way back. Buch would have a shot to knock Sanchez off but I would not bet on it. Don't think Lackey would have a snowballs chance in hell.

While I have been critical of the Sox for ending up leaving us to sing the praises of our bullpen...mainly cause there was not much of anything else to sing the praises of, they have really left it all out on the field the last couple of years. Yea we have had some guys walkin' on the wild side or I guess on the wilder side since relief pitchers always seem a little baked anyway. But without that pen I don't even want to think about how hideous these last two years would have been.

Could be the year of the bounce-back of the year of the tire treads on back.

Having been a season ticket holder I can tell you that at least in my case and my buddies that bought the seats to the left and right of me we were never counting on making anything like every game. Getting left with your yo-yo in one hand and your tickets in the other for several games really makes it tough to commit again. We were lucky for the most part. I was living in a Beacon St brownstone in Brookline at the time and one of us scurvy dog bachelors alternating would hop on a motorcycle...blast down to Fenway if we were not going....sell the seats and blast the heck outta' there. Maybe come back by way of Comm Av and cut across to Rubin's for some hot pastromi sandwiches to take home for supper....yum-yum.

The problem for the pen two years running now has not been the pen in and of itself. It has been that no pen can really survive the pressure that the Sox rotation puts upon it. It is just ridiculous how much they are asked to pitch...the situations they are asked to pitch in and the number of consecutive nights they have been asked to get up and for the most part come in. That is not the manager either. We have had two different managers with for the most part two different approaches to bullpen use crush pretty good bullpens in consecutive years.

I am a bit surprised that Sox Management did not demand some sort of move that would help early ticket sales. Seems to me the Sox are going to lose some sales momentum that you just don't get back. People end up doing something else with their money. It does not matter that you eventually do something...the damage is done by then at least as far as the gate is concerned. Right now you have to be buying tickets on faith hoping that you are not buying tickets to watch the Sox get kicked from one foul pole to the other one.

the problem with Lester for Myers is how do you get that pitcher or like kind back at anything like a reasonable price. Lester is only 28. If you want to do a much older Lester for a Myers that might work. But he is only 28 this year....29 next year. How do you replace that easily? Rebuilding and giving up 28 year old pitchers does not make much sense to me. You want to keep the 28 year old pitcher whether you are rebuilding or not especially when you have so little pitching to begin with.

I honestly don't know how to think about Paps struggles in situations when the Sox forced him to pitch 1 inning plus. He clearly did not do well in that situation. He could do it once but even twice in close proximity was a struggle for him and three times...forget it...you could tell he was out there tryin' but really started struggling pretty quickly. I don't know if you should expect a closer to get it done in that situation if you keep rollin' him out there like that though. I definitely think that Paps struggles in that situation were as much about pitching...sitting and then pitching again than to the total pitch count. Sure he would end up at the upper end of what he could appear to take in total pitches but pitching and then sitting only to come out to pitch again with the effort he was putting into each pitch seemed to contribute as much to his issues. At the end of some of those stints, the ball was just flat with no movement at the plate and he really started to get tagged.

We just got rid of one LH 1st baseman that was playing everyday so we should not be worse of with another one.