jacksonianmarch

Exactly, his rehab has him swinging a bat again by Thanksgiving. And that doesnt include rehab, getting timing back, etc. He's down for the count. As an aside, I broke a thumb and needed surgery during one of my baseball seasons. Once the cast came off, it took 3 weeks before I could swing full force. And check swings hurt like hell. It isnt the injury that is going to slow him, it's the muscle atrophy

The sox have a good collection of young talent. The Yanks have been playing catchup after gutting the system and chincing on the draft over a 5 yr period. The gap is definitely starting to close.

They wanted the equivalent of a 1st rounder and a supp for him. They know that he's leaving and they are going to offer arb

Time for an update... MLB Ivan Nova, 23yrs old, RHP, AAA- 12-3, 2.86ERA 145IP 1.26WHIP 7.1K/9IP- Nova has been a major breath of fresh air this season for the Yankee minor league system. His velocity has picked up into the mid to upper 90s. His starting debut saw him hit some 98mph and in a few innings, he was sitting 96-97mph. He threw hard, but this is new territory for him. What makes that even more interesting is that his fastball is a 2 seamer that gets ton of grounders. His curve still needs a ton of work, but his change is a finished product that has the exact same 2 seam action as the sinker making him really tough to hit. His pitch economy has always been very good, something he even showed in his debut, throwing 73 pitches through 5.1IP. Regardless, this kid is probably going to end up in the Yankee rotation for the rest of 2010 and I wouldnt be surprised if he earns a spot for 2011 either. Eduardo Nunez, SS, 23yrs old, AAA- .289/.340/.381- Nunez started out white hot, but fell off the map after the ASB, OPSing only .608. He's in the bigs right now to give the Yankees some options at 3b, but he really needs another yr at the AAA level to get himself right. He's made some strides in his approach, but he still is classified as a hacker and for some reason, his developing power stalled this yr. He's shown he can hit advanced pitching in AAA, but his persistent lack of patience and the stall in the power department pushes his ETA back, IMO. He's in the bigs now solely as ARod coverage, but he'll be back in AAA in 2011 to hopefully refine his offensive game AAA Jesus Montero, 20yr old, C, AAA-.284/.355/.491- Montero is the real deal. He'll be our #1 prospect again next yr and will probably see a significant chunk of time in the majors in 2011. He started off the yr very poorly, but what he's done since a few adjustments were made is impressive. His Post ASB OPS is 1.090 and he's hit 9 of his 16 homers in that period of time. His bat is truly special Brandon Laird, 22yr old, 3B, AA/AAA .283/.341/.498- Laird started off the yr in AA, but crushed 23 homers in 107 games and earned a promotion to AAA. Thus far, AAA has been an adjustment, as he's only OPS'd .626 in that time. He's young, and he has a TON of power as evidenced by his 25 homers total between the 2 levels. He'll start out next yr in AAA again and might need the entire season to improve his plate approach. He profiles as a starting 1b/3b, but in NY, he will probably either be dealt or move to the OF Juan Miranda, 27yrs old, 1B, AAA- .298/.385/.516- Miranda is kinda the lost guy in our system. He is a Cuban player, so he signed when he was 23 and has moved through the system at a slower pace than I thought. He made it to the bigs this yr, where he wasnt great, but his debut certainly wasnt horrible (.741OPS, 3 homers in 61AB). But he's really a DH as his 1B skills are horrid and with Tex in position and with Montero ahead of him offensively, Miranda might be better suited in another organization. His hit skills are impressive and he could definitely find a home with a smaller market and be a very solid offensive 1b/DH for years to come. But he wont get that chance in NY Colin Curtis, 25yrs old, OF, AAA-.278/.348/.420- Curtis has always baffled me. Scouts love his swing, but he has never translated that to production. The fact that his current .768OPS is second highest in his minor league career should show how disappointing he has been. Regardless, he has above average speed, he's always had a good eye and plate approach, and he can play all 3 OF positions. My guess is that he ends up as our #4 OFer next yr or as a 4th OFer with someone. Maybe, just maybe, in limited time he starts to tap the potential a lot of scouts think he has, but I doubt it Romulo Sanchez, 26yrs old, RHP, AAA- 10-8 3.97ERA 104.1IP 1.41WHIP 8.3K/9IP- Numbers are a little deceiving for Romulo. He was a bust as a starter, then was converted to relief, where he has dominated. He owns a triple digit fastball and a developing splitter, that's about it. He screams relief. His numbers as a reliever are dumbfounding. 7-1 1.69ERA 1.09WHIP 10.4K/9IP. He's on the 40 man, and my guess is that he carves out a spot in the pen in 2011. His fastball/splitty are that good. Jonathan Albaladejo, 27yrs old, RHP, AAA-3-2 1.31ERA 62IP 0.89WHIP 11.6K/9IP- Not sure who Albaladejo needs to blow to get to the bigs. He's made a massive step forward with his stuff and is about to set the AAA record for saves. With the state that our pen was in prior to Robertson stepping forward and Joba and Wood righting their ships, Alby could have been useful. As it stands right now, he is probably going to be dealt this offseason as he is out of options and the Yankee brass obviously has soured on him David Phelps, 23yr old, RHP, AA/AAA- 9-2 2.59ERA 145.2IP 1.09WHIP 8.2K/9IP- Phelps has arguably been the Yankees most improved pitching prospect. His bump in velocity has seen him just flat out dominate the high levels and his improvements in his curve and change have seen him just become a very polished pitcher. His command is solid, he can get a bunch of K's and he can go deep in games. He started off a little poor after his promotion, but he has really turned it on over his last 5 starts. He'll repeat AAA next yr, but if there is a competition for that last rotation slot, you can bet Phelps will be in the conversation. He's a good one D.J. Mitchell, 23yrs old, RHP, AA/AAA- 11-4 4.15ERA 138.2IP 1.42WHIP 6.5K/9IP- Mitchell's numbers arent gaudy by any means. He was promoted to AA prior to the season and he started off horribly. But he finally started getting it for his last 10 or so starts in AA where he saw his WHIP drop significantly and his K/9IP improve significantly. That was enough to warrant a callup to AAA. His first start in AAA was abysmal and I expect a significant learning curve. Mitchell's calling card is his hard sinker. He gets a ton of grounders with it and he has a very solid curveball. What holds back his projection is a third pitch. His change is okay, but not good enough to be used on major league hitters. That is why I think Mitchell's ultimate destination is in the pen. But for now, he'll toil away in AAA as a starter and see if the change comes about. If not, he profiles pretty well as a middle relief/setup guy. AA and below will come later....

Actually it is pretty surprising. The Yankees had a very strong farm system, then graduated Gardner, Hughes, Aceves, Robertson, Joba since 2008. In 2 yrs, their farm system replaced those guys and then some. I am very surprised to see the direction of the Yankees farm, actually. They havent outspent anybody, although they have gone over slot just about as much as the red sox have, but the lack of picks has hurt (not offering arb and signing a bunch of Type A's). For the Red Sox, their last big purge came in 2006-2007 when Pedroia, Lester, Delcarmen, Hanley Ramirez, Buchholz, and Papelbon came up/were dealt and either stayed in the bigs or kinda kicked around a little while to get it right (Buchholz). Their 2008 purge involved some lesser guys, namely Masterson and a few others not worth naming. In 2009, the only real prospect you lost to he bigs was Bard, although you did cash in Masterson, Price and Hagadone for VMart In 2010, a bunch of prospects have come up, but they are pretty sure to repeat the AAA level next yr unless something unforseen happens, like Kalish, Reddick, Nava, Doubront, Bowden, etc. I would still call all of them prospects and those 5 headlining your prospect class with Kelly, Rizzo, and Anderson in the wings is a pretty formidable bunch. BA saying that the Yankee system in total beats that out tells me less about the sox and more about the Yankee system. Although, I have been aware of the Yankee system for awhile now and definitely aware of how good the players were and how big a jump they took this yr

Johnny Damon, Carlton Fisk, Roger Clemens say hi

Well, the sox gained back the half game they lost last night, then all 3 teams lose today, so yeah, tick another day off the calendar

Looking and actively wanting are two different things In terms of Damon, he wanted him for a price and found what he thought was a decent alternative in Johnson. There are those guys the Yankees would like but are replaceable (see Lackey and Damon) Then there are those guys the yankees want unabashedly and they are not replaceable. These include Tex, CC, RJ, ARod, etc.

He was pretty abysmal. He had no control of his fastball and it killed him

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2010/2610578.html Callis has the Yankees in the top 10 in farm systems and has the sox in the 11-15 range. No surprise, but he's pretty late to the party

Hughes' location sucks today

The Yankees didnt actively pursue Lackey, although a lot of the fanbase wanted him

Exactly. I am not trying to be a douche here. It's been the reality of things over the past century or so

It's just hypocrisy to bag on the bandwagoners when both sides are full of em

he's gonna get claimed by almost anyone, especially since he's a type A

and the sox have no bandwagons either. None. Nope. Pink hats are DIE HARDS!

I find it interesting that the premise of the vitriol in this thread is that the Yankees are gonna run out of money. Lee has been at the top of their wish list for awhile. Barring an unforseen development (Lee not wanting to play in NY or some other team offering $30 mil a yr), he's a Yankee next yr

You continue to avoid using AAV, which is where the lux tax is settled from and is where most of the decisions arise from

See YS, the Yanks aren't looking at the salary escalators, IMO. The lux tax is based off AAV, so that number doesn't change, even if the actual payout increases. So while $9 mil more is coming out of their pockets, their lux tax number remains the exact same. In terms of Lee, that money has been earmarked for awhile. That caused the Yanks to pass on a cheap deal for Haren, a guy who would have helped this team for this yr and the subsequent 3 seasons. When you have the option to get a reasonable contract for one good prospect and a bunch of detritus, you do it unless that money is earmarked elsewhere. In terms of Lee's value, I can see NY offering somewhere in the neighborhood of 5yrs 100mil with a vesting option for a 6th at $22 mil or thereabouts. In this economic climate, I don't think that gets beaten

Mariano will see an extension Jeter is gonna see a pay cut The yanks, IMO, will fill DH internally. Their arb cases will not see too big a raise. Hughes will be in the 4 mil range and Joba probably around 2 mil Like I said before. Losing pettitte and Vazquez will free up the money

Flexibility wise, they are in fantastic shape. Unfortunately, they are hitting their flexibility time at the wrong developmental time for their farm. A lot of their higher ceiling prospects are not ready to take on full time roles in 2011, and the FA market aside from really 3 players (outside of their own team) sucks. This means that the sox could theoretically go out and significantly overpay the top guys in a barren market, OR, they could hold pat for a yr and wait for 2012, when the market improves again.

I was in a discussion with Yaz Sideburn when I figured this would be a hot topic of discussion between now and the start of next spring training. Consolidation is key. In 2010, the Yankees will have 3 current starters under contract. 1. Sabathia 2. Hughes 3. Burnett Not a bad way to anchor a rotation. But with Hughes going into his second full season as a starter and Burnett being either Cy Young or Cy Yuk, gaining more stability would be beneficial, especially when the sox and rays have a set rotation. Now to look at those departing us. Andy Pettitte has given us ace production at $11.75 million. But his age, family ties, and injury status has everyone concerned. Andy's groin went this yr and Andy's elbow has been "barking" (ie a ticking time bomb) since 2008. Javier Vazquez started off the yr poorly, righted the ship, then saw his fastball lose all signs of life. He's now on his way out of the rotation in lieu of a hot shot rookie. He's likely to be denied arbitration and his $11.5 million salary is likely to be recouped for 2011 spending cash. So, enter the 2011 FA pitcher's class. And for the Yankees, the only obvious improvement is Cliff Lee. He would tandem with Sabathia as arguably the best 1-2 punch of any rotation and would give the Yankees two left handed horses in a ballpark that favors lefties. If Lee goes elsewhere, the Yankees arent left with much. Rich Harden? Might as well resign Pettitte. Brandon Webb? Not bad as a flier, but cannot be counted on as a regular contributor. Ted Lilly? He and his 84mph fastball would die in YS. So, there are two scenarios.... 1. With Cliff Lee in the fold... 1. Sabathia 2. Lee 3. Hughes 4. Burnett 5. ??? The #5 competition would likely involve either Pettitte returning (doubtful in this scenario), a flier like Webb, or a rookie. Bear in mind, the Yankees minor league system is deeper than most any other system in pitching talent. And unlike last yr, most of that talent is now in the upper levels. Take a look at this... 1. Nova- currently in MLB 2. Phelps- AAA 3. Noesi- AAA 4. Mitchell- AAA 5. Warren- AA 6. Banuelos- AA 7. Betances- AA 8. Brackman- AA These are where guys are this season. Needless to say, the Yankees have the goods to fill one rotation spot if needed. And this Nova kid looks like he's getting an accelerated audition for next season 2. If Cliff Lee spurns us... 1. Sabathia 2. Hughes 3. Burnett 4. ??? 5. ??? In this instance, I dont think you can give one of those spots to a rookie out of the gate. You need to make up for missing Lee by getting 2 guys who you can somewhat count on in the #4 and #5 spots. This would also require us to resign Pettitte into the #4 hole and for us to get someone with a track record to fill the #5 hole. Maybe, this is the spot you go after a guy who can give you 200IP of sub 5 ERA like Vazquez was supposed to. Or, maybe this is where you package some of that pitching talent and deal for a guy who can slot into the rotation and be useful Regardless, the Yankees can very well flex their financial muscle this offseason and lock down the top 4 spots in the rotation. This would then let them flex their developmental muscle and bring up a kid who could very well become the next Phil Hughes. Regardless, it is going to be interesting, and with the lack of quality backup plans, Lee almost becomes a must.

I am going to respond to that in a different post....

I think there is a VERY good chance that the sox pare down their payroll while improving their club. Dont expect them to approach $170 mil again.