jacksonianmarch

we are agreeing a lot today kilo.

LOL.

YES!!! I would like to be known as The Evil Emperor

castigs, the pen can change and with bullpen guys you are talking about high end stakes. I have already digested, broken down, spit out my projections on the sox pen. It would take a miraculous turnaround and someone to excel past recent trends to make the pen reliable, let alone good.

I like that in someone. At least we know he will be willing to claim the inside corner.

I have predicted things about him before, but that was with the assumption that he would have a bullpen. Put it this way, with the sox middle relief and closers role being about as porous as they come, do you see the sox starters cracking 16, 17, 18 wins? Now as far as comparing Nomo to him, remember the differences in their game. Matsuzaka has multiple plus pitches, but Nomo had a windup that was extremely difficult to figure out and he had a splitter that nobody had ever seen before. His splitty was so good that it took 2 yrs for people to even start hitting it and figuring it out. Eventually, players learned that he couldnt locate it well and sat on the heat. That led to his destruction and his lack of confidence in finding the plate. Matsuzaka does not have "the pitch" that nobody has seen before. In case you missed it, he has never thrown a gyroball in a game. The supposed "gyro" on youtube is actually a schutto (sp?) which is a back up slider that nearly all solid japanese pitchers either possess or have tinkered with. Consider it a slower screwball, which is still used in today's game. This is why I dont think Matsuzaka will have the type of initial success that Nomo had. But at the same time, he wont be "figured out" like Nomo was. He has more pitches and better control of them than Nomo had, so he will be good, but he wont be as baffling as Nomo was early on. I actually think that he will be the reverse of Nomo. He's a guy who will benefit from learning the league rather than the other way around and by yr 2 or 3, I expect him to be pretty damn good. This yr, I predicted something in the 3.8-4.3 range, and I am sticking by that. He'll get near 200IP but I dont see the sox pushing this kid until they have to as far as IP, so he should be in the 180-200 range assuming he stays healthy. He will likely K something like 7-9 per 9IP depending on how challenging the hitters are to him. I feel that his K rate will rise if he has trouble because he will be fearful of players putting the ball in play, while I think his K rate will drop if he has success early on. If you look at his numbers, his K rate has declined with each yr he has dropped his ERA. He has started to pitch to contact once he learned the league and started to dominate. This allowed him to stay healthy and pitch longer into games. His BB rate will rise as he will be in the ALE and playing half his games against very patient teams will put a toll on him. It wont go through the roof, but it will be high early on. Either way, even if the best of my predictions pan out, I see him in the 12-15 range of wins. Why? Because the lineup will be good enough to give the sox leads, but the pen is so bad that they will blow a lot of them. Mix that with Matsu's cautious handling at least for this yr and you have the potential to rob him of anywhere from 5-8 wins depending on how poorly the closer performs. At the same time, the sox MR isnt exactly stout with inherited runners, which could turn solid Matsu performances into losses. So at least this yr, I am predicting him to have anywhere from 7-10 losses, 3 or 4 of them not being his fault whatsoever. So overall. 12-15W 7-10L 3.8-4.3ERA 180-200IP 150-180K 50-70BB Yrs 2 and beyond will likely be better once he learns the league and starts to use his entire arsenal along with his knowledge of the hitters.

wasnt his shoulder being held on by duct tape and chicken wire at that point too?

a truer statement has never been uttered.

you okay with 900 numbers?

as always. Competitive and fun yr awaits.

I am willing to give players chances, no doubt. I just think you need to get back to basics with guys who fail. Hansen needs to be rebuilt before he can be thrown to the wolves again. Last season gave no indication that he would be good this yr. Send him down, break down his mechanics, get back to what made him a highly sought after 1st rounder and put him back out there a finished product. He never got what I am advocating Cox get. Time to develop, mentally and physically. Hansen has the stuff, he has a 97mph fastball, a plus plus slider, a diving 2 seamer that hits mid 90s, but he has a 2 cent head. Let him mature a little and he could be something special. But as is, he is damaged good. Fix the damage and see what you have. I would take MDC 10 times out of 10 on the opening day roster over Hansen. He needs work under less stress, and Boston isnt going to give it to him. Time for Pawsox fever for Hansen.

AGREED!!!

I see you bought the spin. You dont need a "special" team to win. You have a guy like Abreu coming up in the market. A guy who the other team essentially asks for a couple long shot long range prospects so they can buy the hype in Philly while all you need to do is pony up the cash to get him. With him, they were willing to include Cory Lidle who would have helped shore up the back end of the rotation. And all you have to do is finance it. He is under contract for another yr with an option for 08, so you essentially control him short term at a hefty pricetag. At the same time, you watch him go to NY while you KNEW he was ticketed there if you didnt do anything. Think about it bosox, Abreu made the yankees an offensive machine. He is 33 right now. He will hit near .300, he'll hit 20 or more HRs, he'll drive in 100 runs, he'll score 100 runs, he'll steal 30 bases, he'll play stellar D in RF, AND he will take the field every single day. Essentially, they passed up on Abreu at 1.5yrs and 24 mil (2.5 and 40mil if they exercised the option) for Drew at 5yrs 70 mil. And Drew doesnt have as good of an eye as Abreu, as good an average as Abreu, as good speed as Abreu and we wont take the field as much as Abreu does. That was a major league disaster. If they entered this season with WMP in RF stating that they were focusing on cutting cost and focusing elsewhere like as SS and SP, then they you could believe them, because their actions would follow their words. But that isnt the case. They throw more money and years at a guy who plays the same position only 4 months after the "we are not the yankees" concession. There is no excuse. No "they didnt have a special team". It was them making a big mistake and watching their principle rivals benefit from it. Also, the 5 game sweep was the anchor that sunk your 06 season to the depths. Abreu hit .500 in that series. With him on the red sox vs the yankees, it would have been a very different finale to the yr.

Todd Helton has been quoted in the Denver Post as saying that he will now invoke his NTC until the end of his contract. There is some speculation that the talks will resume in ST, but if Helton is true to his word, he will not be going anywhere but to the bottom of the standings every single yr in Colorado until he is no longer useful.

wow, thanks SFOC, you are the man.

flat out uncalled for.

Price looks like the real deal. Power lefty, maybe he'll gain a ton of weight and have a triceps scare so he can fall like Joba did!!

I am not a big NBA fan. I hardly root for anyone, but the first BBall game I went to as a kid was a Celtics game at the Harford Civic center. So I am somewhat a Celts fan and a Knicks fan. But I really dont care either way.

HELLO BASEBALL SEASON!!!!

if Bryce Cox is in the majors one yr after drafting him, the sox brass should be lined up and shot. Especially after watching what happened to the latter above when he was promoted too quickly.

I dont think you can jump all over scaff here guys. Look at what is on his side. Pre-AS break ERA- 3.61 Post AS break ERA- 4.58 Pre AS break BAA- .255 Post AS break BAA- .310 last season was his highest OPS against season of his career sans the 2005 debachle. Last season was by far his highest SLG against and was one of his highest OBP against yrs. Last season was the first season of his career (once again sans 2005 injury plagued yr) where he allowed more hits than IP (by 16 which is a ton). He is now 40 and 2 yrs removed from a catastrophic injury, something that a 25 yr old would be expected to regain form after, but a 40 yr old? Last yr, it wasnt even that injury that started to let him down. His body began to break down in other areas too. And anyone who watched him could see that the stuff started to slip. Listen, I think the sox should snap him up if they dont have the option to do so in season, but the argument can be made that he is finally going over the slippery slope. And would you like to guarantee that he plays the next 2 yrs for you when there are some serious reservations about how well he comes out this yr?