Wins are such a fickle stat these days that it really depends more on run support and the bullpen performance to dictate how many games a starter will win. If Pedro's past is any indication, we can certainly expect him to get some raw deals this year as well.
Here's a nice compilation of Pedro's supposed losing efforts and no-decisions since 1999:
04/15/99: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – LOSS
07/07/99: 8.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 14 K – LOSS
08/19/99: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 11 K – LOSS
10/15/99: 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 14 K – No Decision
05/06/00: 9.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 17 K – LOSS
05/23/00: 8.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – LOSS
06/20/00: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – LOSS
07/13/00: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – No Decision
08/08/00: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – LOSS
09/09/00: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – LOSS
09/20/00: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – LOSS
04/02/01: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – No Decision
04/14/01: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – No Decision
04/25/01: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – No Decision
05/24/01: 8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 12 K - LOSS
08/16/02: 8.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – LOSS
03/31/03: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – No Decision
04/27/03: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – No Decision
06/21/03: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – No Decision
07/07/03: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K – No Decision
07/12/03: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – No Decision
05/11/04: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K – No Decision
Obviously, 23 wins in 1999 was pretty good, but he really truly deserved to lose 1 game that entire year, and it ended up being a no-decision. Pedro was worthy of over 25 wins that year.
2000 was perhaps the roughest of all... he set single-season ML records in ERA+, WHIP, BR/9 IP, BAA & OBA and still ended up with a disgusting 18-6 record. Look at those "losses"... that is absolutely BRUTAL. You could argue that he pitched well enough to win every single game he started... the only blemish was a 6 ER outing... Pedro later called it his best outing of the year because the Pen was banged up and he stuck around for 8 innings, eventually retiring them one after another.
2002 was the only season he didn't really get squeezed, going 20-4.
And of course, Pedro should've won 19-20 games last season if the bullpen could've closed any games for him at all.
I don't have his 1997 game log, but it isn't too hard to figure out what was going on there. Pedro pitched 241 innings of 1.90 ERA ball and ended up with a dismal 17-8 record. Just insulting, really. Like Bob Gibson losing NINE games when he posted a 1.12 ERA in 1968. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte was throwing up ERA's around 4 and winning 20+ games. Pffft.