He's a FA after this year. Do you think the struggling White Sox would be willing to part with Mark Buehrle?
I really think the Sox are going to make a run for this guy. The White Sox need some offense, so I don't know who the Sox could package to try to get him.
The question is, would Buehrle be a good fit here? Could we realistically see Buehrle in a Red Sox uni by the end of the year?
I would like to rent Buehrle if the price is right. I worry about lefties at Fenway but Buehrle's interesting.
Kenny Williams on PTI earlier today said that if his team was falling out of contention at the trade deadline he'd be willing to move some of his veterans if it came down to that. I think it's realistic, we're just going to have to hope that the White Sox continue to suck throughout the year. If not, forget about it.
It's definitely a possibilty. The White Sox centerfielder right now is Luis Terrero, and it is normally Darin Erstad (hurt). Both suck, despite Terrero's solid performance in 53 at bats. I think they would definitely be open to acquiring either Coco Crisp or Wily Mo Pena to fill in that slot.
I wouldnt give up a Buchholz/Bowden/Lester/Ellsbury/Anderson type prospect for him, if they were interested in WMP+ others then I'd be on board. He was almost traded for Coco last year (though Coco wouldnt nearly be enough now) so I suppose the Red Sox do have interest in him as a pitcher.
Originally Posted by W.B. Mason
Agreed, Buch/Lester/Anderson especially can't be moved for a one year guy and probably not for anything out there even if they are under contract through '08 and beyond. Especially not Bucholz. If Buch gets traded I'll eat my dog on youtube, it won't happen.
I would trade Ellsbury for Buehrle though. Buehrle is a very solid pitcher, he can give you a good amount of innings and it will be quality too. Ellsbury represents an unknown, an unknown that could very good, but also is an easily acquired commodity and this would be the right time to deal him with Jones,Suzuki, Rowand and Hunter hitting free agency assuming Coco really is what he has been so far this year, and doesn't improve because with the defense he plays he might be the best case scenario if he finds his way at the plate.
I am the biggest spaz of all time
I don't think it is unreasonable to think the White Sox would deal Buehrle for Wily Mo Pena. With Jermaine Dye moving next year, Pena's salary and age, I could see this as a decent move for both teams.
I don't actually like Buehrle that much for the Sox, but having him as a 4 or 5 (or 3 or 4 depending on if Schilling makes it or not) wouldn't hurt.
Before I get attacked for saying this, please know that I value WMP pretty highly (given what we've seen from him--or haven't seen from him, that is). I think he still has 25+ HR potential for someone.
Nice. I totally agree. He is not going anywhere.
I wouldn't trade Ellsbury for Buehrle. Do you really think he's a replaceable commodity? I would say that other than Damon this team hasn't had a bona fide leadoff hitter/centerfielder in a long time. They tried to get Crisp to do that job and it didn't work. I think Ellsbury can do as well as Crisp as a rookie, and will only improve from there.I would trade Ellsbury for Buehrle though. Buehrle is a very solid pitcher, he can give you a good amount of innings and it will be quality too. Ellsbury represents an unknown, an unknown that could very good, but also is an easily acquired commodity and this would be the right time to deal him with Jones,Suzuki, Rowand and Hunter hitting free agency assuming Coco really is what he has been so far this year, and doesn't improve because with the defense he plays he might be the best case scenario if he finds his way at the plate.
I'd pull the trigger on that deal very quickly, but I think the White Sox are going to want a little more than just Wily Mo Pena.
WMP/Crisp + 1 decent prospect and possibly 1 low level prospect, for a half season rental would be more then fair.
I'd like them to get Buherle and then sign him for a few years if he does well. He shouldn't be anymore expensive the Schilling would be.
08 rotation would look like this:
1. Beckett
2. Matsuzaka
3. Buehrle
4. Lester
5. FA/Bucholz
Thats a rotation I wouldn't mind seeing at all. I think Buerhle might sign for 4 yrs 48-55M which isn't bad for a pitcher of his ability.
I think we have a bona fide leadoff guy in Youkilis. I'm of the school that batting order should be determined by descending order of on-base percentage. We also have our center fielder. I trust 100% of everything peter gammons says, and he says Crisp never fully healed after last years finger injury until the off-season, so I'm willing to give him a pass. But, this year so far has been tough, but he has shown signs of coming around. Especially lately, now he has the nation behind him, my best case scenario is probably using Ellsbury's trade value when Crisp shows he can be our CF of the future.
I am the biggest spaz of all time
Re: Mark Buehrle?
I think that my White Sox are going to ride out the season with him and try to re-sign him in the offseason (Kenny & Reinsdorf don't like to sign anyone to extensions during the season). They talked to his agent last offseason and tried to get an extension done then. The major sticking point was not cash, but length. Reinsdorf doesn't like to sign pitchers to 4- or 5-year deals because of the probablility of injury or the pitcher mailing it in the last year or two. Buehrle, through his agent, has promised the White Sox that he'll give them the opportunity to match whatever offers he receives. From what I've heard, Mark is a man of his word.
My prediction is that next year, he'll be with one of two teams situated in towns along Interstate 55: the White Sox or St. Louis. The Cardinals are dying for pitching help, they have the cash and Mark grew up a fan of them.
"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
-John Belushi
I think the Cardinals will end up signing Curt Schilling.
One thing I haven't seen broken down is how much of a difference speed makes in the equation. Not giving up outs is seen as the best way of scoring runs and youkilis avoids making outs very well.
But what is the difference in run production between a guy with a .415 OBP (say, Youkilis) and a guy with .385 OBP (say, Ellsbury). If Ellsbury can steal bases and score from first on a double, and score from second on ALL singles, then when it comes to overall run production is there proof that Youkilis would be more valuable? I'm just curious.
With the players the sox are likely to have hitting 2nd in the future (Youkilis and Pedroia) don't you think there are a lot of run-scoring doubles and runs scored from a guy with the speed of Ellsbury leading off?
OBP is an important trait in determining whether a hitter will score a run. But it has nothing to do with whether that hitter then scores once they are on first base, does it?
Ellsbury is a leadoff hitter. Youkilis is an excellent option for a leadoff hitter, but it is unnecessary if ellsbury is as good as he seems.
If Ellsbury continues to steal at a 86% success rate, he'd probably add about 5 to 6 runs to the Red Sox offense.
The average baserunner will attempt an extra base 46.2 % of the time, and will usually succeed 91.6% of the time. To compare, Rod Carew in 1977, attempted to take an extra base 74.3% of the time, and made it 98.2% of the time.
In all, he added 9.3 runs due to his legs, which is short of one win. (10 runs = 1 win) That's considered historic.
If you use Ellsbury's career number of 76.3% success rate. He's likely not going to add much with his base running. He may even hurt the Red Sox, because he's got a lot of great hitters batting behind him.
I guess the question is how those 5 to 6 runs compares to the number of runs from Youkilis's extra .040 in OBP.
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