Utter nonsense. Duran has by far the highest WAR, +2.8, on the Sox--and the 6th highest in MLB. He is good at the two things the Sox aren't good at--hitting and defense. There is no evidence mental health is a debilitating issue with him. You want debilitating, go look at Chris Sale's track record with the Sox, plus Story, Whitlock, Giolito, Casas (from swinging a freaking bat!!!!!), Yoshida, et al.
Apparently, the Sox have him under control for his prime years, so what could be better?
If the younger guys prove to be better than Duran, I would be fine with trading him, but not now.
Oh, and the Sox use of JBJ was spot on. They lost Ellsbury to the Yankees, who vastly overpaid him, and got good value from JBJ, 2014-2020. It was dumb bringing him back in 2022, but that season was doomed anyway.
I'm against the idea of trading Duran, but he is at his highest value, ever.
He may raise that value, but his trade value is high, right now.
Without Duran, our OF future would look like this:
LF: Abreu/Refsnyder (Lugo?)
CF: Rafaela/Anthony
RF: Anthony/Abreu
That's not bad. It is drop off from one with Duran, but what would be the increase with the return value and where would that improvement be?
Again, I would not trade Duran. (Many of us would have 1.5+ years ago, when his value was low or so-so.)
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
If the Sox stay in the hunt, they cetainly cannot trade Duran. He is a big part of their limited offense.
If they are 10 games out of the third wild card in July, then what?
Obviously they will try to move as many potential free agents as they can - Jansen, O'Neill, Martin, Pivetta. They probably won't be able to move them all, but they will probably try.
But if some team does make an intriguing offer for Duran, do you hold? We've seen controllable outfielders get some fairly impressive returns. i remember when Adam Eaton was traded on his team-friendly contract to the Nationals for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning. That's a franchise-altering return. If the Sox can get such a return, should they do it? The other option is to keep Duran for his last 3 seasons, which doesn't look like such a bad option either...
Last edited by notin; 05-21-2024 at 11:46 AM.
The entire premise of this thread is that StephCurry does not have any faith in Duran maintaining this level of play.
He may be right; he may be wrong. He's no saying his assessment is superior to the Sox scouts. Just that he is putting more faith in the pre-2024 version.
And if anyone does think this is as good as it gets, it is certainly a valid viewpoint to think Duran is a logical trade candidate if the Sox are out of contention by the deadline...
The other part of any Duran trade is what we get back and at what position.
Even if Duran does not decline or even gets better, the return guy could still end up with more value.
Most posters who talked about possibly trading Duran were thinking we'd package him for a very good SP'er.
I'm glad we didn't trade him, but I don't know what the return would have been. I expect a return would look better, on paper, now, but who knows.
I'd keep him.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
I get that. I'm just not entirely sure why anyone would think Duran is at peak value right now.
Right now, his 2024 is worse than his 2023, barely, and I'd actually make the argument that difference is marginal and his continued overall performance DOES make his value higher right now.
But for all we know anyone and everyone is at the highest their value will ever be moving forward. Why Duran?
I'm not opposed to hypothetically trading him one day. Maybe he's a really good chip to have if an Abreu/Rafaela/Anthony outfield looks optimal in a few years, and to CUrry's credit he said he's not advocating trading him right now. But a lot can happen between now and then. If I'm the Sox FO i'm not thinking about maximizing his value right now.
I see it making sense to do fire sales when you have guys with expiring deals. Now, the only like that are Refsnyder (team option), O'Neilll, Martin, Pivetta, Jansen. I wouldn't move the other guys unless you are bowled over with an offer. I would never say that a player is untouchable, but the trade would certainly have to be in the Sox favor to pull the trigger.