5/15 Tampa @ Boston 7:10 pm

[moonslav59]

We have Houck on the mound, tonight.

Game 3 of the 4 game series. The Sox need to give tanner better support, in this game. Despite his 2.24 ERA and 3.33 FIP, the team is just 4-4 in his 8 starts. (3 losses were in games he was awarded a Quality Start.)

Let's hope Romy's "timely hit" was a sign of the team improving in that area.

These numbers are one main reason we are still hanging around .500:

Team OPS
.542 High Leverage (.525 Late & Close)
.691 Medium Leverage
.789 Low leverage

Those bucking the trend on high leverage:
.961 Duran
.929 Refsnyder
.918 O'Neill
All the rest are at .701 (McGuire) or less than .630!

Late & Close:
.956 O'Neill
.875 Refsnyder
.856 Devers
All the rest are below Yoshida at .690 or .625!

[Maxbialystock]

I say again, terrific win last night--largely because of excellent pitching by a clearly rejuvenated Pivetta and by the Sox bullpen.

I am not a Jansen fan, largely because I think @ $16M he is overpaid. He also basically throws just the one pitch, a 90-92 mph cutter. But it works because he does move it around the strike zone. Plus, after a hard hit single by Rosario, McGuire--yes, McGuire--got his 2d guy attempting to steal last night.

The one error, by Rafaela @ SS, was costly, but it was also a tough play. Rafaela had to charge in and fielded the ball cleanly (it was low off the ground, not a high hopper), but then had trouble transferring the ball to his throwing hand, which led to a bounced throw to 1b. That gave the Rays the go-ahead run in the 11th, but the Sox tied it before winning in the 12th.

Pivetta went 5.2 innings and 83 pitches--I'm sure because Cora did not want to overwork him in his 2d start coming off the IL and giving up just 2 runs. Then 1 ER by Slaten, who looked awful in the 6th but solid in the 7th. Then 5 straight innings, 8th through 12th, by the bullpen while giving up 0 ER's.

In short, this 2024 Boston Red Sox pitching staff continues to astound anyone who bothers to pay attention. Their ERA of 2.78 continues to lead MLB. In 2d place are the Yankees @ 3.05, in 3d the Dodgers @ 3.16 in 4th the Phillies @ 3.19, in 5th the Braves @ 3.29, and in 6th the Orioles @ 3.30.

Why do I mention the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Braves and Orioles? Because those 5 teams have W-L records of 28-15, 29-15, 30-13, 26-13, and 26-14.

Good pitching wins games--unless, of course, your hitting and defense stink, which is the case--so far, anyway--with the Sox, whose W-L record is nevertheless above .500, 22-20.

Lately the defense has looked better, but, as moonslav's stats point out, the offense/hitting has not.

[moonslav59]

I say again, terrific win last night--largely because of excellent pitching by a clearly rejuvenated Pivetta and by the Sox bullpen.

I am not a Jansen fan, largely because I think @ $16M he is overpaid. He also basically throws just the one pitch, a 90-92 mph cutter. But it works because he does move it around the strike zone. Plus, after a hard hit single by Rosario, McGuire--yes, McGuire--got his 2d guy attempting to steal last night.

The one error, by Rafaela @ SS, was costly, but it was also a tough play. Rafaela had to charge in and fielded the ball cleanly (it was low off the ground, not a high hopper), but then had trouble transferring the ball to his throwing hand, which led to a bounced throw to 1b. That gave the Rays the go-ahead run in the 11th, but the Sox tied it before winning in the 12th.

Pivetta went 5.2 innings and 83 pitches--I'm sure because Cora did not want to overwork him in his 2d start coming off the IL and giving up just 2 runs. Then 1 ER by Slaten, who looked awful in the 6th but solid in the 7th. Then 5 straight innings, 8th through 12th, by the bullpen while giving up 0 ER's.

In short, this 2024 Boston Red Sox pitching staff continues to astound anyone who bothers to pay attention. Their ERA of 2.78 continues to lead MLB. In 2d place are the Yankees @ 3.05, in 3d the Dodgers @ 3.16 in 4th the Phillies @ 3.19, in 5th the Braves @ 3.29, and in 6th the Orioles @ 3.30.

Why do I mention the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Braves and Orioles? Because those 5 teams have W-L records of 28-15, 29-15, 30-13, 26-13, and 26-14.

Good pitching wins games--unless, of course, your hitting and defense stink, which is the case--so far, anyway--with the Sox, whose W-L record is nevertheless above .500, 22-20.

Lately the defense has looked better, but, as moonslav's stats point out, the offense/hitting has not.

Good points, Max.

Our O has been about average, but on timely hitting, we have been atrocious. I'm one who believes clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill set, so I'm hoping we regress to the mean. Just being average at that would be a major improvement. (We are sub .600 in high leverage and Late & Close ABs.)

[Maxbialystock]

Good points, Max.

Our O has been about average, but on timely hitting, we have been atrocious. I'm one who believes clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill set, so I'm hoping we regress to the mean. Just being average at that would be a major improvement. (We are sub .600 in high leverage and Late & Close ABs.)

I think hitting with men on base is in fact a skillset because I believe good pitchers throw better when they are are in trouble, defined as either men on base or men in scoring position.

[moonslav59]

I think hitting with men on base is in fact a skillset because I believe good pitchers throw better when they are are in trouble, defined as either men on base or men in scoring position.

Seems pretty random, to me. Players get hot and cold at any time or moment. Even the hitters we remember as being great "in the clutch," often have very similar numbers in clutch situations vs non clutch situations. Of course some do better and worse, but you'd expect that over a random sort among mostly small or smaller sample sizes.

2024

MLB OPS: .697 overall

.727 with men on base

.716 High Leverage

It's been higher with men on base every year back to 2021, the last year I looked. Sox hitters never got the memo.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

If you can forget about stats, and rely on a pitcher's grip test and elbow/shoulder stress, is it at least possible that a good pitcher will save his best deliveries -- and all the subsequent strain that might put on his body and mind -- for when the best batters are up with the game on the line?

That's not clutch, it's an actual plan that coaches, batteries and defenses go over pregame. The phrase is as old as sign-stealing: "Don't let HIM beat you."

And it's not like pitchers throw meatballs to the other guys or even the best hitters earlier in the game. They just can't risk elbows and shoulders on every pitch...

[notin]

I think hitting with men on base is in fact a skillset because I believe good pitchers throw better when they are are in trouble, defined as either men on base or men in scoring position.

I actually think many pitchers are worse with men on base if they switch to pitching from the stretch…

[notin]

If you can forget about stats, and rely on a pitcher's grip test and elbow/shoulder stress, is it at least possible that a good pitcher will save his best deliveries -- and all the subsequent strain that might put on his body and mind -- for when the best batters are up with the game on the line?

That's not clutch, it's an actual plan that coaches, batteries and defenses go over pregame. The phrase is as old as sign-stealing: "Don't let HIM beat you."

And it's not like pitchers throw meatballs to the other guys or even the best hitters earlier in the game. They just can't risk elbows and shoulders on every pitch...

Teams absolutely game plan for better hitters…

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

J. Swayman defined the word clutch last night; allowing the BRUINS to play a game 6 on Friday night.

[moonslav59]

I actually think many pitchers are worse with men on base if they switch to pitching from the stretch…

And the infield is in or the 1Bman is holding the runner, sometimes

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

My over/under number of runs the SOX will score tonight is 5.5. I'll take 'over.'

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

My over/under number of runs the SOX will score tonight is 5.5. I'll take 'over.'

No sensible reason, just a gut feeling.

[moonslav59]

My over/under number of runs the SOX will score tonight is 5.5. I'll take 'over.'

I feel the same.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Helluva play by Hamilton.

[jad]

For the inane comment file: Rays announcer after Duran doubles off the wall, then scores on two consecutive 380-400 ft fly balls: "Red Sox playing small ball ..."