A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

The season has begun!

No doubt, the offseason was full throttle shitty. Much of that was captured on the Part I thread:
https://www.talksox.com/forum/thread...at-2024-Part-I

Starting the season on the 60 Day IL:
Giolito (our biggest addition of the winter)
Hendriks (acquired more for 2025 and the second half of '24.)
Murphy

Starting the season on the 10 Day IL:
Grissom (may join the team after April 20th)
Mata (out of options, so the team may try to prolong his rehab)
Refsnyder (may be back in May)
Walter (may be added to the 60 Day IL, if a roster move is needed)

Opening Day 26 Man Roster:
SP: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck
RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Slaten, Campbell, Joely, Anderson, Weissert
C: Wong & McGuire
1B: Casas, Dalbec (3B)
2B: E Valdez, Reyes (SS)
3B: Devers
SS: Story
LF: Duran
CF: Rafaela
RF: O'Neill (LF), Abreu (CF)
DH: Yoshida

Some notable minor league depth:
SP: Criswell, Uwasawa (Not on 40: Gambrell, Fitts) Wikelman
RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Jacques (Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Benitez)
C: Heineman (Teel)
1B: (Kavadas, Jordan)
2B: DHam (Sogard, Yorke)
3B: (Meidroth
SS: DHam (Mayer)
OF: R Gonzalez (Contreras, Rosier, Anthony)

When comparing this team to the disappointing 2023 team, it's easy to see losing Sale, Paxton, Turner, Duvall and Dugo as being a big loss, but most of these guys did not play a whole lot and or did not do all that great, when they did play (not Turner.) When looking more closely, we can see many other players who are gone or will not play as much as being more addition by subtraction, such as Kike/Arroyo/Urias/Chang, Tapia, Kluber, Schreiber, Bleier, Brasier, Llovera, Ort and many others. When you add up these guys PAs and IP, it was more significant than we might imagine.

Looking at the Defense, Offense and Pitching projections:

Defense (2023 Innings>2024 projected w no injuries)
C: Wong (940>940), McGuire (430>480)
1B: Casas (1040>1400), Dalbec (100>30) No Turner
2B: Grissom (0>1100), EValdez (360>300), Reyes (200>30) No Arroyo/Kike/Urias
3B: Devers (1290>1400), Dalbec (15>30) No Turner
SS: Story (310>1300), Reyes (200>130) No Kike/Chang
LF: Duran (170>1200), Refsnyder (350>130), O'Neill (100) No Yoshida
CF: Rafaela (120>1000), Abreu 90>430)
RF: O'Neill (0>1200), Abreu (10>230)

I see marked improvement on D at SS, 2B, CF and LF.
I see slight or possible improved D at RF, 1B and maybe 3B, C

On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs)
C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700
1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875
2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725
3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900
SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775
LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775
CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725
RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750
DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775

I see two positions getting worse, and the others looking pretty good, compared to 2023.

Pitching:
This is the hardest area to project. Losing Sale and Paxton from the rotation hurts, and with Gio getting hurt, the replacements are coming from our own system, and some had significant innings in the pen, last season. That makes pen improvement difficult. We may need these GS and IP to have a winning season. (Note: these are not projections but are more like wishes.)

32/175 Bello
32/170 Pivetta
28/150 Crawford
26/140 Whitlock
26/140 Houck
18 GS from Criswell, Anderson and others

We need top health from Janse and Martin and a full season from Wink and then 2-3 other pen arms must rise to the occasion. We have a lot of arms to choose from, but we can't afford to see 3-4 fail badly as we cycle through to find some that do well. After Jansen, Martin and Wink, we have these guys:
Campbell
Slaten
Joely
Anderson
Weissert
Bernardino
Kelly
Mata
Jacques
(Not on 40: Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Gambrell, Fitts)

I may be looking through pink glasses, but I think we should win 81-84 games, this season, despite being in a division with 4 teams projected for more wins.

Let's see what happens.

[moonslav59]

When...

Grissom comes back: E Valdez to AAA

Refsnyder: probably trade Ref or send Abreu or Rafaela to AAA.

Mata (out of options): maybe trade or DFA Mata or send down Weissert or Joely.

[Larry Cook]

When does Bernardino get back to Boston?

[moonslav59]

When does Bernardino get back to Boston?

As soon as someone earns a demotion.

[Larry Cook]

As soon as someone earns a demotion.

When does joely board the bus to Worcester?

[moonslav59]

When does joely board the bus to Worcester?

Weissert may go before the lefty, Joely.

[Nick]

You simply stick Rafaela out on center.

Ref is a utility piece. I would be pissed if Rafaela is sent down to make a room for Ref.

Rafaela is our future center fielder. If we can't srick with him this year when we're expected to come in dead last then when when will he get an opportunity?

[Bellhorn04]

Devers says he's had pain the shoulder for a while now, was playing through it in spring games.

Not what you want to hear.

[****THEYANKEES]

Devers says he's had pain the shoulder for a while now, was playing through it in spring games.

Not what you want to hear.

when i didn't see him in the starting lineup, i just assumed it was a scheduled rest day Cora had for him.

[Bellhorn04]

when i didn't see him in the starting lineup, i just assumed it was a scheduled rest day Cora had for him.

Boy that's cold.

We'll all be in mid-season form in no time.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess one thing that was highlighted in last night's game is that Breslow's plan to sign a situational RH bat in the offseason did not come to fruition...

[gojohn99]

Boy that's cold.

We'll all be in mid-season form in no time.

No doubt!

[dannycater]

It's kind of fun to watch a minor league team at the big league level...refreshing...thank god I'm not a season ticket holder.

[moonslav59]

I'm not too worried about our offense, but without Devers, the team suffers.

[Maxbialystock]

The season has begun!

No doubt, the offseason was full throttle shitty. Much of that was captured on the Part I thread:
https://www.talksox.com/forum/thread...at-2024-Part-I

Starting the season on the 60 Day IL:
Giolito (our biggest addition of the winter)
Hendriks (acquired more for 2025 and the second half of '24.)
Murphy

Starting the season on the 10 Day IL:
Grissom (may join the team after April 20th)
Mata (out of options, so the team may try to prolong his rehab)
Refsnyder (may be back in May)
Walter (may be added to the 60 Day IL, if a roster move is needed)

Opening Day 26 Man Roster:
SP: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck
RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Slaten, Campbell, Joely, Anderson, Weissert
C: Wong & McGuire
1B: Casas, Dalbec (3B)
2B: E Valdez, Reyes (SS)
3B: Devers
SS: Story
LF: Duran
CF: Rafaela
RF: O'Neill (LF), Abreu (CF)
DH: Yoshida

Some notable minor league depth:
SP: Criswell, Uwasawa (Not on 40: Gambrell, Fitts) Wikelman
RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Jacques (Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Benitez)
C: Heineman (Teel)
1B: (Kavadas, Jordan)
2B: DHam (Sogard, Yorke)
3B: (Meidroth
SS: DHam (Mayer)
OF: R Gonzalez (Contreras, Rosier, Anthony)

When comparing this team to the disappointing 2023 team, it's easy to see losing Sale, Paxton, Turner, Duvall and Dugo as being a big loss, but most of these guys did not play a whole lot and or did not do all that great, when they did play (not Turner.) When looking more closely, we can see many other players who are gone or will not play as much as being more addition by subtraction, such as Kike/Arroyo/Urias/Chang, Tapia, Kluber, Schreiber, Bleier, Brasier, Llovera, Ort and many others. When you add up these guys PAs and IP, it was more significant than we might imagine.

Looking at the Defense, Offense and Pitching projections:

Defense (2023 Innings>2024 projected w no injuries)
C: Wong (940>940), McGuire (430>480)
1B: Casas (1040>1400), Dalbec (100>30) No Turner
2B: Grissom (0>1100), EValdez (360>300), Reyes (200>30) No Arroyo/Kike/Urias
3B: Devers (1290>1400), Dalbec (15>30) No Turner
SS: Story (310>1300), Reyes (200>130) No Kike/Chang
LF: Duran (170>1200), Refsnyder (350>130), O'Neill (100) No Yoshida
CF: Rafaela (120>1000), Abreu 90>430)
RF: O'Neill (0>1200), Abreu (10>230)

I see marked improvement on D at SS, 2B, CF and LF.
I see slight or possible improved D at RF, 1B and maybe 3B, C

On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs)
C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700
1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875
2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725
3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900
SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775
LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775
CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725
RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750
DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775

I see two positions getting worse, and the others looking pretty good, compared to 2023.

Pitching:
This is the hardest area to project. Losing Sale and Paxton from the rotation hurts, and with Gio getting hurt, the replacements are coming from our own system, and some had significant innings in the pen, last season. That makes pen improvement difficult. We may need these GS and IP to have a winning season. (Note: these are not projections but are more like wishes.)

32/175 Bello
32/170 Pivetta
28/150 Crawford
26/140 Whitlock
26/140 Houck
18 GS from Criswell, Anderson and others

We need top health from Janse and Martin and a full season from Wink and then 2-3 other pen arms must rise to the occasion. We have a lot of arms to choose from, but we can't afford to see 3-4 fail badly as we cycle through to find some that do well. After Jansen, Martin and Wink, we have these guys:
Campbell
Slaten
Joely
Anderson
Weissert
Bernardino
Kelly
Mata
Jacques
(Not on 40: Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Gambrell, Fitts)

I may be looking through pink glasses, but I think we should win 81-84 games, this season, despite being in a division with 4 teams projected for more wins.

Let's see what happens.

Amazingly comprehensive laydown, thanks. About right, I think--not especially optimistic, as it should not be.