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Thread: A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

  1. #5686
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Hard to tap into much power with bad hammies.
    Right, but he exhibited no power last year either, and no power in his last 15 games in 2022.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  2. #5687
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Right, but he exhibited no power last year either, and no power in his last 15 games in 2022.
    Oh shit. No power in the LAST 15 GAMES OF 2022!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  3. #5688
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    In 2023, Grissom led his AAA squad with 501 SLG. He wasn't exactly bashing HR's, but hitting in Gwinnett will do that to you.

    Home: 1 HR, 441 SLG, 820 OPS
    Away: 7 HR, 550 SLG, 999 OPS
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  4. #5689
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Oh shit. No power in the LAST 15 GAMES OF 2022!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    220 consecutive MLB PA's without a home run, and only a handful of EBH's. If that doesn't raise any concerns about his power, fine.

    Even in 2022 his hard hit % and exit velocity were way below average.
    Last edited by Bellhorn04; 07-08-2024 at 04:33 PM.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  5. #5690
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    220 consecutive MLB PA's without a home run, and only a handful of EBH's. If that doesn't raise any concerns about his power, fine.

    Even in 2022 his hard hit % and exit velocity were way below average.
    I'm beginning to think that the key factor in the Sale deal was the willingness of the Braves to give him the 3 year deal (2024 plus 2 more) Sale insisted upon. The Sox almost certainly thought that was a horrible idea, so much so they were willing to sweeten the deal with $17M this year.

    Grissom was/is just someone Breslow could claim would pay off in the future. After he undergoes hamstring replacement surgery.

  6. #5691
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    Sox not the only team struggling with starting pitching.

    Yankees starters were 35-13 after first 72 games. They lead the majors with the lowest ERA.

    But during their 5-15 tailspin, the starters are 3-13.

    Everyone needs starting pitching.
    Last edited by Nick; 07-09-2024 at 03:11 AM.
    I write fictional stories in my spare time. So don't fact check me. Better?

  7. #5692
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    I'm beginning to think that the key factor in the Sale deal was the willingness of the Braves to give him the 3 year deal (2024 plus 2 more) Sale insisted upon. The Sox almost certainly thought that was a horrible idea, so much so they were willing to sweeten the deal with $17M this year.

    Grissom was/is just someone Breslow could claim would pay off in the future. After he undergoes hamstring replacement surgery.
    Sale didn’t get a three year contract from the Braves. He got a two year contract with a club option for a third year. He was due $27.5M this year, but $10M of that was to be deferred to 2039. Now he gets $16M this year, which is actually a pay cut, and the Red Sox are paying the Braves $17M, so it’s a free deal for the Braves. Next year the Braves pay him $22M, so Sale ends up with $38M guaranteed instead of $27.5M guaranteed, which $10M was deferred until 2039.

  8. #5693
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    220 consecutive MLB PA's without a home run, and only a handful of EBH's. If that doesn't raise any concerns about his power, fine.

    Even in 2022 his hard hit % and exit velocity were way below average.
    It might raise concerns but it shouldn’t lead to conclusions.

    It could be as simple as making adjustments, which is harder to do in 323 PAs spread out over 3 years than if they were all in one.

    He’s 23 years old, and he’s got limited MLB action spread out over 3 years. Why are you trying to draw conclusions from this extremely limited data?

  9. #5694
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    It might raise concerns but it shouldn’t lead to conclusions.

    It could be as simple as making adjustments, which is harder to do in 323 PAs spread out over 3 years than if they were all in one.

    He’s 23 years old, and he’s got limited MLB action spread out over 3 years. Why are you trying to draw conclusions from this extremely limited data?
    I'm not drawing conclusions, I'm just jabbering like I always do. I tend to get obsessed about some things. This year it's the Sale-Grissom trade. Some of it is pushing back against this being a slam-dunk great trade for the Sox. I've been on Sons of Sam Horn a lot lately and a lot of those folks were absolutely thrilled by it. And Grissom's limited MLB numbers were used as evidence that the guy has already proven he can rake at the MLB level. When I dug deeper into the numbers I was not so impressed.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  10. #5695
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    220 consecutive MLB PA's without a home run, and only a handful of EBH's. If that doesn't raise any concerns about his power, fine.

    Even in 2022 his hard hit % and exit velocity were way below average.
    Now do Jarren Duran through age 25. I'm not saying Grissom is going to work out, but he's only 23. He was awful this year because he was injured and had no Spring Training. Hard to really take note of that sample at all. If he was on SoxProspects, he'd be in the top 10, but towards the back end. He's an ok prospect, but he's not a can't miss kinda guy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  11. #5696
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    I'm not drawing conclusions, I'm just jabbering like I always do. I tend to get obsessed about some things. This year it's the Sale-Grissom trade. Some of it is pushing back against this being a slam-dunk great trade for the Sox. I've been on Sons of Sam Horn a lot lately and a lot of those folks were absolutely thrilled by it. And Grissom's limited MLB numbers were used as evidence that the guy has already proven he can rake at the MLB level. When I dug deeper into the numbers I was not so impressed.
    It was never a slam dunk trade. Old Red should spend some time at SOSH and report back. Maybe he'd be nicer to us.
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  12. #5697
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Now do Jarren Duran through age 25. I'm not saying Grissom is going to work out, but he's only 23. He was awful this year because he was injured and had no Spring Training. Hard to really take note of that sample at all. If he was on SoxProspects, he'd be in the top 10, but towards the back end. He's an ok prospect, but he's not a can't miss kinda guy.
    Yes, that's what it looks like, he's an OK prospect. We got 10 million and an OK prospect. Some folks talked like Grissom was going to be the answer at second base for the next 6 years.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  13. #5698
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Yes, that's what it looks like, he's an OK prospect. We got 10 million and an OK prospect. Some folks talked like Grissom was going to be the answer at second base for the next 6 years.
    There were questions about his defense before he even signed. Even if he hit the shit out of the ball, he might not have stuck there. Reports out of camp weren't all that favorable and that he may have needed to be pushed to corner OF. Merloni spoke about not liking his approach at 2b. Maybe he ends up being another UTIL guy? I think he still has some value so he could be a guy that is spun in another trade.
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  14. #5699
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Yes, that's what it looks like, he's an OK prospect. We got 10 million and an OK prospect. Some folks talked like Grissom was going to be the answer at second base for the next 6 years.
    Well what is the going rate for 35yo pitchers who've only managed 150 IP in the past 4 years?

  15. #5700
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Well what is the going rate for 35yo pitchers who've only managed 150 IP in the past 4 years?
    Right, and Chris Sale is just any 35 year old pitcher, just like he's showing...

    There's no perfect comp for Sale, but you've got Tyler Glasnow and Jacob deGrom as examples of guys coming off more than one injury-decimated season, and the going rate was pretty darn high.
    Last edited by Bellhorn04; 07-09-2024 at 08:32 AM.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

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