A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Dipre]

For a 4th starter? Sure.

Man do I look like a dum dum for expecting to take a step forward. I wonder if the earlier injury is having an impact? A lot of his pitches are high in the zone, an usual indicative of not correctly finishing a pitcher's delivery.

[Dipre]

Our team seems to play up or down to the calibre of opponent

It's just inconsistent offense.

[Nick]

KC Royals are 7-12 this month with another game vs Rangers today. Then it's 3 games vs Miami and they conclude by playing a 4 game series vs the Guardians.

They sure look poised to be overtaken by the 6/30.

We host 3 games vs Toronto and then following a day off it's the Padres for 3.

[Nick]

Does Fitts have a third pitch? I see that he has been pitching well as a starter. Almost 4 walks per 9 but he doesn't give up homers, unlike Pivetta.

[moonslav59]

Does Fitts have a third pitch? I see that he has been pitching well as a starter. Almost 4 walks per 9 but he doesn't give up homers, unlike Pivetta.

He had a pretty good game, last night.

[moonslav59]

Updated MLB OPS Leaders after Sox game (other games still in progress

160+ PAs

1.109 Judge
1.030 Ohtani
1.018 Kwan
.994 Soto
.986 Ozuna
.979 Tucker
.955 D Fry
.955 Harper
.917 Pederson
.914 K Carpenter
.900 Freeman
.896 O'Neill 12th
.894 Profar
.893 Betts
.890 Whitt
.889 Devers 16th
.885 Refsnyder 17th
.885 H Ramos
.882 Yelich
.881 Pillar
.877 Y Alvarez
.872 JD Martinez
.870 Correa
.870 Wong 24th
.860 J Ramirez
.852 R Greene
.847 Bohm
.843 Westburg
.842 Rooker
.842 E Sosa
.840 J Turner
.837 Naylor
.837 McMahon
.837 Schwarber
.835 Duran 35th
.835 K Marte
.833 J Ortiz
.831 Rutschman
.824 Paredes
.823 Abreu 40th

6 in the top 40!

Looks like the offense is coming around the bend!

[Maxbialystock]

I'm beginning to think that on this thread pessimistic is synonymous with realistic. It you are high on the Sox, you must be high on something else--bourbon, whatever.

Well, count me out of the pessimism school, and here's why.

The 9 latest games: 3 vs. the best AL Team, 3 vs. the best NL Team, and 3 vs. the 47% winning Jays--and the Sox won 7 of them with good enough pitching and surprisingly good hitting.

Season to date--and we are at 75 games, almost at 81, which is half the season--the Sox team ERA, 3.45, is 5th best in MLB. The 2018 Sox finished at 8th, ERA 3.75.

The hitting is not nearly as good as 2018, which was 1st in runs scored and OPS. However, the 2024 Sox are 9th in runs scored and 5th in OPS, and I think they can get better--barring further key injuries--because two of their top OPS guys, Casas @ .857 and Abreu @ .829--missed those 9 games. Plus there are really only three experienced hitters--Devers, O'Neill, and Refsnyder--on the active roster. Wong, Casas, Abreu, Duran, Rafaela, Hamilton, Valdez, and Gonzalez are still learning. That's a double-edged sword, I know, but I take those 9 games in June as being very timely in terms of the future. Old Julius said it best: I came, I saw, I conquered. He also said Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres, which freely translated says there are 3 wild card slots in the AL.

Defense still stinks--well, the infield, anyway--but maybe with fewer unearned runs. We'll see. And a tiny counterbalance is that the baserunning adds to the offense to help compensate for those unearned runs (also earned runs that weren't).

I think the Sox need 92 wins to make the postseason. How doable is that? They need to play 60% ball the rest of the way. So far they are winning at a 53% rate, so the improvement needs to be 7%. Piece of cake--if the 53% is valid and not, as too many on here seem to think, blind stupid luck. To remind: if it's luck, it's almost half a season of luck.

This is beginning to look like a prophecy that just might turn out to be true. And I believe I'm the first one to have written it out loud right here on talksox.

[Nick]

Sox now in the sildcard. 1/2 game ahead of Royals. Tanner Houck next up.

[cp176]

Duran is looking like the real deal.

[moonslav59]

This is beginning to look like a prophecy that just might turn out to be true. And I believe I'm the first one to have written it out loud right here on talksox.

Our pace is 87 wins, right now, and we are looking at this, right after our best stretch of the year. It still counts, of course, and there is no reason to think we can't keep up a .538 win %.

To get to 92 wins on the year, we'd have to go 50-34 or almost a 60% win%. While that does not seem impossible, that is a pretty significant step up from what we have done, so far. A 6-7% improvement is a lot in MLB.

It's not impossible, for sure.

As of now, we are the 3rd WC team, 1/2 game ahead of KCR and 4.5 ahead of the streaking Astros, who we have yet to face- twice.

Current Pace to win:
103 BAL (#1 WC)
88 MIN (#2 WC)
87 BOS (#3)
86 KCR (outside looking in by 1 game)

Maybe 87-89 wins is all a team needs to grab the last slot. Look for HOU to make a strong run. (I wish we played them, earlier in the season.)

As of now, we rank as such in the AL:
5th in Runs Scored (4 behind MN and 1 ahead of KCR)
4th in OPS (.002 behind HOU and .003 ahead of MN)
2nd in OBP/ 5th in SLG
1st in SBs & Triples (2nd in 2Bs)

5th in ERA (0.07 from BAL and 0.11 from LAD/ +0.02 on CLE)
5th in WHIP (0.01 from BAL and 0.01 up on CLE & 0.02 on NYY)

7th in ERs Allowed but 21st in Runs Allowed thanks to crappy D.
24th in Outs Above Replacement (13th in DRS & 17th in UZR/150)
I'd put our D in the bottom 10, but perhaps it belongs between 15-20th.

Usually, a top 5 Offense and top 5 Pitching staff is enough to make a team a cinch to make the playoffs, and even a bottom 10 Defense can change that, but we are still clearly on the bubble.

If we keep playing like this, we are in. It's hard to know, if we will do that.

I'm hopeful.
I'm optimistic.
I'm also concerned we may not. The holes we had in April and May, are still there. Our rotation is not as strong as it was over the first 5-6 weeks. Our bats go hot and cold on a dime. Our poor D still shows up, from time to time, although less often, of late. Our pen has been a strength, but now we have had a few pen games that really tax the staff.

We are looking at Criswell returning. Wink and Campbell have looked good in AAA, recently, and Hendriks is kin of a wild card for the last 2 months of the season. Maybe Fitts earns a shot. Maybe Crawford, Pivetta and or Crawford bounce back, a bit. Maybe Bello pitches like he did, last June, July and August.

We still have some big ifs, but there is more to be optimistic about than pessimistic, right now.

[Nick]

I think projection is very unrealistic.

One game at a time.

[moonslav59]

I think projection is very unrealistic.

One game at a time.

Of course. I see it more as the pace we have been playing at and not as projecting the exact same thing to happen over the second half of the season.

Not long ago, we looked like we were destined to be a .500 team. At times, it looked like getting to .500 at the 162 game mark would be very difficult.

Yes, one game at a time.

We have a lot of tough series ahead of us, many against teams looking to make the playoffs, at our expense.

A lot can happen, but this has been fun, so far.

[Maxbialystock]

I think projection is very unrealistic.

One game at a time.

I completely agree they play and we watch one game at a time, and every game has a story of its own.

But it's mindless not to see each game in the context of the season. Specifically, there are pretty big differences between being 10 games below .500, exactly at .500 and 10 games above .500 midway thru the season.

In the last 12 games the Sox took 2/3 from Yankees, who have the best won-lost record in the AL, 2/3 from the Phillies, who have the best won-lost record in MLB, 3/3 from the Jays, who used to be ahead of the Sox in the AL wild card race, and 2/3 from the Reds, who are still just 2.5 games out of a wild card slot in the NL.

It is not projecting to be hopeful instead of pessimistic. I think your obvious pessimism is because these Sox are, except for Devers and Jansen, pretty much a bunch of no-names. For at least 17 seasons and 4 WS wins John Henry espoused big payrolls and big names, but no longer.

Instead this year the combined salaries of all 6 starters--Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, Whitlock, and Criswell so far--are less than the $16M Jansen is getting and less than the $17M the Sox are paying Sale to pitch for Atlanta. But those no-names are why the Sox ERA is ranked 5th, which is the best it's been in a very long time. And no-name Houck has the lowest ERA, 2.14, among AL starters and 12 quality starts out of 15 total.

And the rest of the no-name Sox lineup--Duran, Rafaela, Wong, O'Neill, Abreu, Hamilton, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, and Smith--are getting paid less than 1/2 of what Devers is paid. And now just maybe that cheap charlie lineup, appalling as it is to real Sox fans, is starting to hit with some consistency.

[moonslav59]

I completely agree they play and we watch one game at a time, and every game has a story of its own.

But it's mindless not to see each game in the context of the season. Specifically, there are pretty big differences between being 10 games below .500, exactly at .500 and 10 games above .500 midway thru the season.

In the last 12 games the Sox took 2/3 from Yankees, who have the best won-lost record in the AL, 2/3 from the Phillies, who have the best won-lost record in MLB, 3/3 from the Jays, who used to be ahead of the Sox in the AL wild card race, and 2/3 from the Reds, who are still just 2.5 games out of a wild card slot in the NL.

It is not projecting to be hopeful instead of pessimistic. I think your obvious pessimism is because these Sox are, except for Devers and Jansen, pretty much a bunch of no-names. For at least 17 seasons and 4 WS wins John Henry espoused big payrolls and big names, but no longer.

Instead this year the combined salaries of all 6 starters--Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, Whitlock, and Criswell so far--are less than the $16M Jansen is getting and less than the $17M the Sox are paying Sale to pitch for Atlanta. But those no-names are why the Sox ERA is ranked 5th, which is the best it's been in a very long time. And no-name Houck has the lowest ERA, 2.14, among AL starters and 12 quality starts out of 15 total.

And the rest of the no-name Sox lineup--Duran, Rafaela, Wong, O'Neill, Abreu, Hamilton, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, and Smith--are getting paid less than 1/2 of what Devers is paid. And now just maybe that cheap charlie lineup, appalling as it is to real Sox fans, is starting to hit with some consistency.

The offense has come a long way, since the first few weeks of 2024.

We are now top 7 in OBP, SLG.
We are first in the AL in SBs.

You'd think with all this we'd be better than 10th in runs scored, but we are pretty close to top 7 (just 5 runs away.)

The offense is certainly trending upwards, and I guess it's safe to project a better second half of hitting, since Casas returns and Abreu just returned. Replacing Arroyo, Reyes, Valdez I and DHam I, plus Grissom and Short at MI with DHam II, Valdez II and Romy has done wonders, not to mention some time from Rafaela there, too. Upticks from the OF/DH has been the main driving factor in the offensive gains.

When you think of how bad our OF has looked in some recent seasons, it's a big turnaround.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS by Month

.739 MAR/APR (8th)
.683 MAY (19th)
.823 JUN (5th) So far