A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[dgalehouse]

It is good to remember that ballplayers, like many employees, build their salaries from longevity, years of productive service. Sometimes they are getting a good paycheck when their performance is not what it once was. But they have little job security. Is that fair? You decide. Emmanuel Clase is a better closer than Kenley Jansen at this point. But should he be getting more money than Kenley? Should the much-coveted Mason Miller? Or do they need to produce at a high level for a couple or a few more years?

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

Edwin Diaz is now the standard-setter for closer contracts - 5 years, $102 million.

In my view it's fair that the highest-paid closers make about half as much as the highest-paid starters.

They only pitch about 1/3 the innings, but the innings are much higher leverage on average, so that justifies the bump to 50%.

It just feels like a lot of money for a bullpen arm, but if the majority of your bullpen is comprised of cost controlled arms then it makes ense to build a bullpen that way. That's sort of exactly the way the Sox have it right now.

[Bellhorn04]

It is good to remember that ballplayers, like many employees, build their salaries from longevity, years of productive service. Sometimes they are getting a good paycheck when their performance is not what it once was. But they have little job security. Is that fair? You decide. Emmanuel Clase is a better closer than Kenley Jansen at this point. But should he be getting more money than Kenley? Should the much-coveted Mason Miller? Or do they need to produce at a high level for a couple or a few more years?

The system is designed to keep salaries down until the players hit free agency.

With a guy like Jansen, I think the Sox paid a premium not so much for his longevity, but for his consistent and reliable results over the years.

Some guys are much more "money in the bank" than others.

[moonslav59]

Ok but what’s more important here? Winning or Henry selling?

I mean, if we win, isn’t that enough?

Of course.

Nobody wants a team to sell, because it means they suck or are at best near mediocrity.

Only when that happens are some of us looking at selling as a possible better option than doing nothing or wasting the future on futile buying sprees.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, no idea where moon got that from.

Apparently, one reason he fired Bloom was for not selling.

Yea, insisting on selling was a poor choice of words.

[moonslav59]

So far I think it is fair to say that the offseason acquisition of starters by both Chaim Bloom and Craig Breslow has been uniformly disastrous. Breslow giving up Sale and plumping down $38M for Giolito is just the latest example.

Midseason deals need not be terrible. Eovaldi was one--2018. So was Schwarber--2021. In both cases the Sox still had the option to keep both of them, for a price of course.

I like this current Sox team despite the weak infield defense and the so-so RISP hitting. The pitching--without Sale, Giolito, Whitlock, et al--is the best it's been in a long time. Even Story on the IL hasn't hurt much because of his weak hitting. Casas is missed, but not his defense. Besides, I continue to believe that the Sox biggest lineup need is a good righty bat because Fenway Park favors righty bats.

I completely agree that, if the Sox stay comfortably above .500 and in the hunt for a wild card slot, they should be buyers later this month. I would love to see Breslow make a deal that isn't idiotic.

Agreed. It won’t take a top 7-8 prospect to get real talent.

I hope we are buyers, and on 2+ pitchers!

[moonslav59]

The system is designed to keep salaries down until the players hit free agency.

With a guy like Jansen, I think the Sox paid a premium not so much for his longevity, but for his consistent and reliable results over the years.

Some guys are much more "money in the bank" than others.

Yup.

The trick is guessing right more often than not. There is a ton of luck involved, but certainly some GMs are better than others pretty consistently.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox finished in last place three out of the four years that Bloom was in charge. I can't assume that his trade deadline deals, or lack of same, were the main reason for his firing. The overall performance just was not good.

[Nick]

One problem was keeping Xander and Eovaldi while the team was over the cap.

Our comp picks were set back because of it.

I'd say hire Bellhorn and have him keep track of tax payroll.

We seem to suck at it

[Hugh2]

One problem was keeping Xander and Eovaldi while the team was over the cap.

Our comp picks were set back because of it.

I'd say hire Bellhorn and have him keep track of tax payroll.

We seem to suck at it

A second round pick will always be better than a 4th round pick. However in this particular instance, purely because of chance, it might have worked out in our favor as Campbell is now a top 100 prospect.

[moonslav59]

The Sox finished in last place three out of the four years that Bloom was in charge. I can't assume that his trade deadline deals, or lack of same, were the main reason for his firing. The overall performance just was not good.

No doubt.

I do think top brass wanted Bloom to sell on at least one deadline, and were unhappy when he did not.

Perhaps by the time Bloom figured it out, he had already been shown the door.

I will add, if Bloom’s young additions and prospects do well, we may thank him, here and there, between the bitching and bashing.

[Maxbialystock]

No doubt.

I do think top brass wanted Bloom to sell on at least one deadline, and were unhappy when he did not.

Perhaps by the time Bloom figured it out, he had already been shown the door.

I will add, if Bloom’s young additions and prospects do well, we may thank him, here and there, between the bitching and bashing.

Agree young additions/prospects could redeem some of Bloom's rep.

[moonslav59]

As time goes by, the Theo and Ben influence on today’s team will be almost gone and DD’s, less and less.

I think the amount of DD prospects helping this team surprised a few of us, and despite the long gap with little to no farm help under his time, here, it’s hard to not appreciate his mark on this team.

Brez & Bailey have already made a significant mark on this team, in less than a year, but a big chunk of this year’s top performers and prospects are from the Bloom era.

That’s not to say all is or should be forgotten about his 4 year reign. 3 of those years sucked, badly, but his task was mostly to rebuild the farm and hope for a better longer term outlook than we had in 2020, and he seems to have done okay as the floor with a ceiling that looks better now than it did 3 months ago.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

a big chunk of this year’s top performers and prospects are from the Bloom era.

That’s not to say all is or should be forgotten about his 4 year reign. 3 of those years sucked, badly, but his task was mostly to rebuild the farm and hope for a better longer term outlook than we had in 2020, and he seems to have done okay as the floor with a ceiling that looks better now than it did 3 months ago.

Right, but I can't give credit to a CBO who drafts good prospects with picks that are the direct result from his big league team losing nearly every year.

Drafting the best player available left on the board when it's your turn is standard practice for baseball GMs. It's their job, and most follow suit. Media who cover the draft reported surprise that Mayer and Teel fell into Bloom's lap. His strategy to take Yorke so he could afford Jordan, on the other hand, raised eyebrows. Later round guys like Anthony and now Campbell developed faster than the industry expected -- or just show the crapshoot variables of drafts, where there are loads of past examples, from Betts to Judge...

A CBO should be judged on how he builds his MLB roster each year, and supplements it with sufficient big league depth to properly deal with annual injuries. Epstein and Dombrowski were good at that, and Bloom wasn't. Argue if you want that the same owner determined their fates, depending on his spending moods.

And pray he gives Breslow a chance to improve... our summer entertainment value.

[Bellhorn04]

As time goes by, the Theo and Ben influence on today’s team will be almost gone and DD’s, less and less.

Well, the impact of DD's guys should be here quite a long time.

Bello
Casas
Crawford
Duran
Houck
Rafaela