A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

They could both have been big factors.

Kennedy said the payroll was going to be lower in 2024.

Sale was part of the reduction.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think the $10 mill tipped the balance toward trading him.

The trade is not made without the $10M "savings," IMO. it was an essential part of the trade.

I also think it was a valiant attempt to solve the 2B problem we have had since Pedey got hurt. It's not like 2B was not an issue. Had Grissom filled that void, the trade would make more sense, right now,

Since 2017, we have had 20 second basemen with over 44 PAs and 16 over 82.

2017>today 2B PAs only (OPS)
544 Arroyo .739 (not even a full 650 PAs by one player!)
492 Nunez .691 (mostly from half season in '18)
487 Holt .739 (probably our best 2Bman)
457 Pedey .755 (was a drain on the budget)
396 Story .737
304 Kiki .901
263 Valdez .646
254 Chavis .711
148 Marco H .589
141 Kinsler .598
119 Marwin .511
100 Reyes .627
91 Arauz .468
89 Peraza .553
88 Urias .743
83 Grissom .386
51 Iggy .914
50 Lin .401
46 Rutledge .473
44 Yolmer S .322

2017-2024 2B Team Rankingss
T 30th in fWAR at 4.9 over 7.4 years.
24th in OPS .687
27th in OAA (-102)

No doubt, the rotation was a major concern, last winter, and we can now see why, but 2B was, too.

The swap out from frail Sale to Gio did make some sense, at the time, when you also factor in the idea that they felt they were solving the 2B problem.

[Bellhorn04]

And let's face it, Giolito was pretty much a dumpster dive, albeit a more pricey one than usual. He had one of the worst stretches I've ever seen to finish 2023. Obviously they thought they could "fix him".

[moonslav59]

Isn't this kind of leaving out that in the next full season, 2021, the Sox made it to the ALCS?

Plus the 2022 and 2023 teams arguably had playoff shots with a few better moves.

I mentioned '21 in another recent post, but the 2021-2023 teams were clearly a step down from 2018, and even the roster, on paper, of 2019. Even the 2020 team would not have been all that bad had Sale and ERod pitched.

It was not really "the cliff" many of us expected, in some ways, but the continued last place finishes does make it feel like the cliff cam into existent.

[moonslav59]

And let's face it, Giolito was pretty much a dumpster dive, albeit a more pricey one than usual. He had one of the worst stretches I've ever seen to finish 2023. Obviously they thought they could "fix him".

Agreed. I never really liked the signing, but did think it was a step up from Kluber, Richards and Perez.

Last 14 starts (almost half a season)
7.13 ERA/6.96

Last 12
6.96/6.87

7.14/6.88 last 11 (third of a season)

The last 5 did show improvement, so maybe that was part of the equation:
4.88/5.82 in 28 IP

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Nope, not buying the "only 93 wins".

93 is several more than a number of recent WS and pennant winners.

Agreed. Finishing first place three years in a row never happened before or since in Red Sox history (and to crapshoot theorists, that accomplishment shouldn't be dismissed by crapping out in the '16-17 postseasons).

That had to be good for the brand -- but maybe Henry noticed waning interest in baseball in the summer of '18, when the Sox were 50 games over .500 and talk shows focused entirely on Patriots' training camp...

[Bellhorn04]

I mentioned '21 in another recent post, but the 2021-2023 teams were clearly a step down from 2018, and even the roster, on paper, of 2019. Even the 2020 team would not have been all that bad had Sale and ERod pitched.

It was not really "the cliff" many of us expected, in some ways, but the continued last place finishes does make it feel like the cliff cam into existent.

It did, but we can also see it didn't really have to with a bit more spending and better moves. They made very conscious decisions to trade Betts, cut payroll and hire a CBO with no experience.

The real cliff-bringers just might be the guys still here running the show.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. I never really liked the signing, but did think it was a step up from Kluber, Richards and Perez.

Last 14 starts (almost half a season)
7.13 ERA/6.96

Last 12
6.96/6.87

7.14/6.88 last 11 (third of a season)

The last 5 did show improvement, so maybe that was part of the equation:
4.88/5.82 in 28 IP

5.82

[moonslav59]

It did, but we can also see it didn't really have to with a bit more spending and better moves. They made very conscious decisions to trade Betts, cut payroll and hire a CBO with no experience.

The real cliff-bringers just might be the guys still here running the show.

Just keeping Betts and Price would have meant a huge increase in the budgets from 2020 onwards.

As it turned out, if it meant not signing these guys, it would not have made much of a difference, but we'd have had to cut other salaries or not signed some FAs that did work out to meet the actual budgets we had from '20-'24.

2020
11 JBJ arb (he did okay in '20)
8.3 ERod arb
5.0 Perez
4.3 Pillar
2.9 Peraza
2.5 Moreland
1.5 Lucroy
(How do we cut the 2020 budget to pay for Betts, let alone Betts & Price? No Bogey? No JD? Trade Sale?)

2021
10 Richards
9 Ottavino (trade)
7 Kike (x 2)
5 Perez
3 Renfroe
3 Marwin
(Richards, Ottavino, Perez & Marwin almost pays for Betts, but what about Price?)

2022: it gets easier due to Story and it being Price's last year
23 Story
12 JBJ trade
11 Devers arb
10 Paxton (2 yrs)
8 Barnes
7 Kike (signed in '21)
7 Wacha
5 Hill
4 Diekman (2 yrs)
3 Strahm
2.3 Robles
1.6 Sawamura
(You can save about $60M by not adding all from this list, except Wacha, Hill and Strahm, Devers and Kike, so it works for 2022, but you still need to fill the roster slots of those not added.)

2023: No Price contract makes having Betts doable.
23 Story
18 Yoshida (The top 2 alone, pays for Betts with 11M left over)
10 Kluber
4 Paxton
(Had we not signed Story, Yoshida, Kluber and Paxton and spent $30M on Betts $25M on a pitcher who actually did well and stayed healthy, we'd have done okay in '23.)

Yes, the choices to cut the budgets were made by the guys still in charge, but one point the cliff dwellers held, back then, was the idea that the continued increases in the budget, as our young stars reached arbs then free agency was going to come to a breaking point, and it did. Unfortunately or stupidly, we chose Betts as that point.

The choice to cut or not add to the budget was a major factor, no doubt, and the cuts actually began before 2019, by letting Kimbrel and Kelly walk to pay for arb raises, so the process actually began in 2019, before Bloom's arrival.

[moonslav59]

5.82

Sadly, still an improvement. LOL

[notin]

They could both have been big factors.

Kennedy said the payroll was going to be lower in 2024.

Sale was part of the reduction.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think the $10 mill tipped the balance toward trading him.

No. Sale was part of an increase in spending. If they keep Sale, do you think they still sign Giolito?


I do think it’s reasonable to think if Sale actually pitched from 2020-2023, he would not have been traded.

If the Sox were all about cost reduction as their top priority, they would have dealt Chris Martin ($8mill-ish) while he was coming off a career year instead of Sale.

Heck if it was all about money, why insist on Grissom? Why not trade Sale in 2022 when some team wanted the entire contract?

[notin]

Nope, not buying the "only 93 wins".

93 is several more than a number of recent WS and pennant winners.

It’s also the lowest total ever to win the AL East pennant. It’s been done three times. 2016 (Red Sox), 2017 (Red Sox), and 2015 (Blue Jays)…

[moonslav59]

No. Sale was part of an increase in spending. If they keep Sale, do you think they still sign Giolito?

No way they had both Sale and Gio on the 2024 roster, IMO.

Maybe they'd have lucked out and kept Sale while adding Lorenzen at $5M/1.

As it turned out, the 2B issue was not solved by teh Sale trade, anyway, so not loss there.

Maybe we keep Sale and no Gio or O'Neill and sign Flaherty to $15M/1 or Lugo $15M x 3.

This is pure hindsight, of course.

[moonslav59]

It’s also the lowest total ever to win the AL East pennant. It’s been done three times. 2016 (Red Sox), 2017 (Red Sox), and 2015 (Blue Jays)…

We cry about how tough the ALE has been since 2022, but don't look at how weak it was from '16-'18.

From '19-'21 it was pretty tough but not great.

[Nick]

I just read that Oakland A's had the fourth best "Profit Margin" last year. That tells me that maybe the A's aren't 'valued' asset in a traditional sense but it can generate decent, annual pocket money to the owner. Meanwhile the fans suffer. Ugh.

[notin]

I just read that Oakland A's had the fourth best "Profit Margin" last year. That tells me that maybe the A's aren't 'valued' asset in a traditional sense but it can generate decent, annual pocket money to the owner. Meanwhile the fans suffer. Ugh.

They rely heavily on revenue-sharing money…