The idea is to lock up these guys, BEFORE they start doing really well. It might be too late with Houck. He has to see mega bucks in his future, now.Originally Posted by notin
The idea is to lock up these guys, BEFORE they start doing really well. It might be too late with Houck. He has to see mega bucks in his future, now.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Sox are ranked 13th in runs scored. That's the killer that keeps them from winning more. In this 3 game series vs. Milwaukee, they scored 2, 3, and 2 runs. They would have been swept had Houck and the bullpen not been fantastic yesterday. In the 4 game winning streak before the Milwaukee series, they scored 11, 5, 5, and 8 runs, which I took as a positive sign.
But in the 15 games before that--when the Sox were 4-11--the Sox scored 1, 2, 1, 9, 2, 0, 1, 4, 3, 3, 5, 3, 5, 6, and 2 runs.
The current Sox lineup of Duran, Abreu, Wong, Devers, O'Neill, McGuire, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, Rafaela, Smith/Cooper, Hamilton, and Grissom--13 players--has just 2 players, Devers and O'Neill, who have played 2 full seasons before this season. The other 11 players are either on their first or second full season or have always been bit players.
I cite Smith/Cooper in particular as nothing but refuse from other teams, DFA-types.
On the other hand, like everyone else, I like Duran, Abreu, Wong, Rafaela, McGuire, and now even Hamilton, whose respective WAR's are +2.8, +2.0, +1.1, 0, +.6, and +.6. I also like Devers, +1.1, and almost like O'Neill +0.7.
Plus let's not forget that Devers, O'Neill, Refsnyder, and Grissom--who are all playing pretty regularly right now--all spent time on the IL this season.
So my take is that the hitting is still a problem that defeats the terrific pitching, but that the hitting could well get better with time and experience.
Yeah maybe at best you buy out his arb years and delay free agency by 1-2 years. But even that seems unlikely unless he collapses…
I can't stress enough how little value we are getting from our 'luxury tax payroll' in terms of non-productive payroll. We need to look at actual cash basis payroll to appreciate our record.
Cot's has us little under $20M in cap space. We have two players, Bello and Rafaela whose contracts are back loaded to create reducing cap space in early years. Cash layouts are $1.167M and $1.250 for Bello and Rafaela. But the straight line tax payroll burden is $9.167M and $6.250M for the two respectively. That creates fictitious payroll expense of $13M for 2024 between the two players.
Obviously we all know about Sale's $17M, Turner's $4.15M and recently DFA's Joely's $2M (Bres and/or Bailey missed on him sending Bernardino to the minors). Throw in wasted year from Giolino ($19.250M) and now Whitlock ($4.688M). Of course there's Trevor Story's $23.333M and I'm not sure what to make of Yoshida and his $18M anymore.
Look at another way, current 'playing' roster on cash basis and not on luxury tax basis, has a combined payroll of $90M with 5 players making $66M of it. (Devers, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill)
That $90M payroll is NOT that far removed from Oakland A's $60M. I think we'll playing pretty damn well with our 26 man roster based on their payroll.
Do you follow me, Moon? This is why I'm not disappointed in this team.
Last edited by Nick; 05-27-2024 at 11:21 AM.
I write fictional stories in my spare time. So don't fact check me. Better?
Agreed, but let's not forget problem #2, which has been improved upon over the last few weeks: Unearned Runs Allowed (not to mention earned runs allowed that could have been prevented with just average defense.)
37 BOS 7th in runs allowed (Most Unearned allowed)/13th in Runs scored
26 PHI (Best record in NL) 6 in runs allowed/ 1st in Runs scored
21 BAL (3rd best record in AL) 5 in runs allowed/7th in Runs scored
17 ATL (Best record in NLE) 3 in runs allowed/ 13th in Runs scored
15 MIL (Best record in NLC) 10th in runs allowed/6th in Runs scored
15 SEA (Best record in ALW) 9th in runs allowed/27th in Runs scored
15 CLE (Best record in AL) 4 in runs allowed/4th in Runs scored
14 LAD (Best record in NLW) 8th in runs allowed/2nd in Runs scored
14 MIN (5th best record in AL) 14th in runs allowed
13 NYY (Best record in ALE) 1 in runs allowed/3rd in Runs scored
12 KCR (4th best record in AL) 2 in runs allowed/4 in Runs scored
Red = outliers
Clearly the difference in Unearned Runs allowed has made a difference with the Sox and those above them in the WC standings.
-1.5 MIN (23 less UnERs allowed)
-6.5 KCR (24 less)
-7.5 BAL (16 less)
-0.5 SEA (22 less for the ALW leader)
Here is another way to look at it: Run differential vs record rankings and ER vs UnER differential vs record rankings:
Run Diff
1. +93 PHI 1st in W-L record in MLB
2. +92 NYY 3rd best record in MLB
3. +79 KCR 5th
4. +73 CLE 2nd
5. +69 LAD 6th
6. +47 ATL 7th
7. +45 MIL 8th
8. +32 BOS 11th
9. +4 MIN 8th
18. -7 SEA 8th
LEAST UnEarned runs:
12 KCR (5)
13 NYY (3)
14 LAD (6) & MIN (8)
15 CLE (2), MIL (8), SEA (8)
17 ATL (7)
21 BAL (4)
26 PHI (1)
37 BOS (11)
While W-L seems to jive closer to best W-L records, 3 teams are outliers in the W-L standings compared to RUN Differential: BOS is better than MIN & SEA, but are on the outside of the playoffs.
When you look at UnER vs ERs, no team is an outlier.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
We could extend him 1-2 years beyond arbs, but now it will be very costly, and perhaps too big of a gamble. Knowing our luck, he'd go on the IL w TJS a day after he signs.
Crawford might be a better bet at extending, now.
I'd still think about Pivetta on a 3 year extension.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Ah, more Kavadas talk. Kavadas is NOT coming up anytime soon, and Smith is NOT getting DFA.🤭🙈. At present time I would say that Smith is the regular 1B, so like it , or not that’s the way it is.
Completely agree with "outlier" unearned runs, which I forgot about. The Sox have in fact improved there. At the same time, however, the earned runs have increased.
I don't like Smith or Cooper, and completely agree neither should ever DH. I know nothing about Kavadas. Casas can return 21 June if his recovery stays on track. Meanwhile, I would replace Smith or Cooper with Dalbec, which I realize is very much a minority opinion.
Thanks for highlighting a big issue with this team and it's budget. It is also evidence to show why JH is shying away from large and long contracts (besides Devers.)
I realize some are convince JH will never spend bigly, again. That very well MIGHT be the case, but nobody knows for sure.
When this "wasted money" comes off the books, we could not top this year's budget and still make some gains by getting our signings right, for once. The $23M "saved" by losing the Sale, Turner & Joely commitments could be a nice FA signings. We will, however, be facing some hard roles to fill, at the same cost as these guys are now:
$16M Jansen (might not be too hard to replace at $16M/per season)
$7.5M Martin (very hard to replace at this cost.)
$7.5M Pivetta (very hard)
$5.9M O'Neill (might be hard)
Cooper, Smith and Anderson should be easily replaced.
Finding a taker for half or more of Yoshida's contract might be impossible, so we probably keep him and pray for a turn-around. We have 3 more years of his $18M and Story's $23.3M and one more year of Gio at $19M.
The budget is not really a hot mess, going forward, and if JH does decide to spend more (not a projection,) we could see a solid team as early as 2025 or 2026.
C Wong & Teel (McGuire for '25)
1B Casas (Kavadas/ Devers?)
2B Grissom (Story/Yorke/Valdez/DHam/Romy)
SS Story & Mayer (Rafaela/Romy)
3B Devers (Mayer or Story?)
LF Duran & Abreu/Refsnyder
CF Rafaela & Anthony (Duran)
RF Abreu & Anthony (Refsnyder)
DH Yoshida & Refsnyder (Kavadas/Casas or Devers if Devers to 1B/DH)
No FAs needed for everyday players, except maybe a big RH'd bat, as Mayer, Anthony and Teel all bat left-handed.
Money will need to be spent on pitching, as always. The losses of Jansen, Martin and Pivetta (Gio after 2025,) alone will force some sort of additions.
2025 Staff
______, Houck, Crawford, Gio, Bello (Criswell, Whitlock/Fitts to pen)
______, _______, Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, (Whitlock/Cooper/Fitts) or Wink/I Campbell/Fulmer/Kelly/Booser
2026 Staff
Gio> Fitts or Criswell?
Hendriks & Fulmer> Wink/Kelly/Guerrero/Murphy/Wikelman
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
I don't think giving Dalbec one more chance is a bad idea. Playing one or both of Cooper or Smith, everyday is not working.
A Dalbec/Kavadas platoon at 1B should not be any worse than Cooper/Smith, although many saw replacing Dalbec as essential a month ago.
There is no surer solution at 1B within our system, right now.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
I’m not big on Smith, or Cooper either, but at the moment that is what the Red Sox are going with and most likely will until Casas comes back.
My guess is, they ride Smith and Cooper to the Casas return, whenever that is. I'm not sure June 21st is that time, but I hope so.
It would be a nice start to the summer.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
NO on Kavadas, and NO on Bobby D. Smith, and Cooper are Both here, because of Bobby D, so I don’t see the Red Sox going back to him.
To Moon.
I am hoping Slaten Whitlick and Liam H can replace Jansen/Martin.
I write fictional stories in my spare time. So don't fact check me. Better?
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