A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

We will just have to see how the Sale trade plays out in the future. As of now, I think the general feeling around baseball is that the Sox were fleeced.

That's what I think too.

However, without Sale the Sox currently have the 2d best ERA in MLB, primarily because of the rotation (Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell). No one on Talksox can name a Red Sox team in the last 50 years that was ranked higher than 2d in team ERA.

As for Grissom, I didn't expect much from him and am fine with whoever else gets to play in his stead. Next year's middle infielders could include Story, Mayer, Rafaela, Hammond, and/or Gonzalez. Who needs freaking Grissom this year or next year?

I would be dishonest if I didn't admit I would love to have Sale on this Sox team. When he is the real Chris Sale, he is a joy to watch because he's probably the most professional pitcher I can remember in a Sox uniform. Focused, good defender, athletic, and with a pretty good array of pitches, made slightly better by the recent addition of a cut fastball.

[Old Red]

That's what I think too.

However, without Sale the Sox currently have the 2d best ERA in MLB, primarily because of the rotation (Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell). No one on Talksox can name a Red Sox team in the last 50 years that was ranked higher than 2d in team ERA.

As for Grissom, I didn't expect much from him and am fine with whoever else gets to play in his stead. Next year's middle infielders could include Story, Mayer, Rafaela, Hammond, and/or Gonzalez. Who needs freaking Grissom this year or next year?

I would be dishonest if I didn't admit I would love to have Sale on this Sox team. When he is the real Chris Sale, he is a joy to watch because he's probably the most professional pitcher I can remember in a Sox uniform. Focused, good defender, athletic, and with a pretty good array of pitches, made slightly better by the recent addition of a cut fastball.

Max you’ve beaten the ERA thing to death, and rightly so, but it’s still only a 500 team. ERA has been a great thing, but 4 injuries to starters already are not a good thing, and not a good sign this early in the season of things to come.

[Hugh2]

That's what I think too.

However, without Sale the Sox currently have the 2d best ERA in MLB, primarily because of the rotation (Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell). No one on Talksox can name a Red Sox team in the last 50 years that was ranked higher than 2d in team ERA.

As for Grissom, I didn't expect much from him and am fine with whoever else gets to play in his stead. Next year's middle infielders could include Story, Mayer, Rafaela, Hammond, and/or Gonzalez. Who needs freaking Grissom this year or next year?

I would be dishonest if I didn't admit I would love to have Sale on this Sox team. When he is the real Chris Sale, he is a joy to watch because he's probably the most professional pitcher I can remember in a Sox uniform. Focused, good defender, athletic, and with a pretty good array of pitches, made slightly better by the recent addition of a cut fastball.

Do you really trust Story to stay healthy?

Why not root for the kid to reach the potential everyone says he has. You can always trade away a logjam or move guys off position. I’d keep Grissom on the roster.

[moonslav59]

Do you really trust Story to stay healthy?

Sale had a worse injury track record than Story, and it wasn't even close.

[Maxbialystock]

Max you’ve beaten the ERA thing to death, and rightly so, but it’s still only a 500 team. ERA has been a great thing, but 4 injuries to starters already are not a good thing, and not a good sign this early in the season of things to come.

It's a sign of age when you beat things to death, so you're right. I do think the pitching has been miraculously good, but I also think the hitting can and must improve if the Sox are going to the postseason. Right now I'm definitely on uppers (caffeine, blueberry pancakes, and acetaminophen) and therefore believe the last 3 games, all wins, all with the Sox scoring 5 or more runs, are a harbinger of what could in fact happen.

That can change, of course, if tomorrow night Devers makes a key error--in which case he will again be the worst superstar in the history of the universe--and the Sox lose, say, 3 to freaking 1. Reacting is not enough. Over-reacting is the only way a real fan should conduct himself.

[Maxbialystock]

Sale had a worse injury track record than Story, and it wasn't even close.

True. But Sale was really good when he was good. And we saw that in 2017 and 2018--at least, before August. He was especially lousy in the postseason.

Plus the elbow thing was kind of inevitable for Sale. The bike, I agree, no excuse, but I've ridden bikes competitively, in traffic and in the country, up and down steep hills, etc, and never had a freak injury like his.

Plus we have yet to see a Story that can hit, which means he's just a good glove, which are a dime a dozen. Plus his injuries suggest he is injury-prone. Back in April all he did was dive for a ball, which infielders are expected to do all the freaking time, but this time he's gone for a whole season or more. I think he's another Ellsbury.

[Maxbialystock]

Do you really trust Story to stay healthy?

Why not root for the kid to reach the potential everyone says he has. You can always trade away a logjam or move guys off position. I’d keep Grissom on the roster.

No, I don't "trust" Story, who is probably another Ellsbury, especially the one who signed that insane 7 year contract with the Yankees. But right now Story is ours, and it's possible, if unlikely, he will not only stay healthy next season, but also--and this really will be a shock--show he can hit the dadgum ball. This year he's out, so all those other wannabes get their shot. And they will get more shots next year and/or the year after.

[moonslav59]

True. But Sale was really good when he was good. And we saw that in 2017 and 2018--at least, before August. He was especially lousy in the postseason.

Plus the elbow thing was kind of inevitable for Sale. The bike, I agree, no excuse, but I've ridden bikes competitively, in traffic and in the country, up and down steep hills, etc, and never had a freak injury like his.

Plus we have yet to see a Story that can hit, which means he's just a good glove, which are a dime a dozen. Plus his injuries suggest he is injury-prone. Back in April all he did was dive for a ball, which infielders are expected to do all the freaking time, but this time he's gone for a whole season or more. I think he's another Ellsbury.

I get it. I loved Sale. I had high hopes he'd return, year after year. I waited 5 years, and I'm supposed to be pissed off we didn't wait 6.

Sure, it sucks, but WTH.

Story was really good just 3 years ago. It just wasn't with us, so it doesn't seem to count. I guess I'll wait 3 more years on Story, and he'll be even with Sale.

Granted, Story at his best wasn't close to Sale at his best. Sale was the very best for a 4-5 year period... maybe longer.

I'm still holding out hope for Grissom and wish Sale the very best. The trade made some sense at the time, and might still prove to ve a good or decent one.

That Beni trade, almost everyone hated, looks a lot different now, right?

I'm not hearing much about the Verdugo trade, anymore, but maybe he'll catch on fire, and that talk will start up, again. This is baseball...

Ain't it great!

[moonslav59]

No, I don't "trust" Story, who is probably another Ellsbury, especially the one who signed that insane 7 year contract with the Yankees. But right now Story is ours, and it's possible, if unlikely, he will not only stay healthy next season, but also--and this really will be a shock--show he can hit the dadgum ball. This year he's out, so all those other wannabes get their shot. And they will get more shots next year and/or the year after.

This year's injury was about as freakish as a bike accident, and it did happen as a result of lack of hustle and grit.

I don't know what to think about Story. His book with the Sox is still full of blank pages.

I'm not sure what to think about Whitlock, Gio and Hendriks, either.

It's like the Yankee injury bug has mutated.

[Nick]

I'm happy watching our athletic trio in OF.
We are building a contender the right way. Sale wouldn't be in my future plans.

[moonslav59]

I'm happy watching our athletic trio in OF.
We are building a contender the right way. Sale wouldn't be in my future plans.

That was my point, when I said nobody was talking a further extension of Sale.

Many were still yapping about the failure of the last one.

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

That was my point, when I said nobody was talking a further extension of Sale.

Many were still yapping about the failure of the last one.

If you could go pre Sale trade there was no one in here happy with Sale, and probably many salivating at the opportunity to offboard him.

I don't think they're purposely being hypocritical, rather people want proven MLB talent. Grissom wasn't a name they recognized, and the fact that he got hurt and off to a slow start certaily didn't help his cause.

Some of us also recognize that a 34 year old pitcher who had not been healthy for a significant period of time since he was in his 20's isnt' excatly a valuable asset. It's very easy to look at Sales performance now and critisize the trade, and we are the kings of that here on Sox talk. The hindsight is strong in here.

It will be interesting to see how the narrative changes if Grissom turns into a big pick up. I suspect many will come around, and some won't, some will always be against the trade. The bar Grissom will have to pass is he will have to be a regular all-star. Fans will always project out the player they loses absolute 100% ceiling and expect that guranteed in return and they will discount years of control, downside, age, risk, performance etc etc etc.

It's nice to see Sale healthy and performing well, I hope he can keep it up, he always seemed like a deserving guy to me. I hope Grissom works out well for us too, he's starting to show signs off life the last several games.

[mvp 78]

This year's injury was about as freakish as a bike accident, and it did happen as a result of lack of hustle and grit.

I don't know what to think about Story. His book with the Sox is still full of blank pages.

I'm not sure what to think about Whitlock, Gio and Hendriks, either.

It's like the Yankee injury bug has mutated.

So "freakish" that it happened to old man Xander a few days ago.

[mvp 78]

I'm happy watching our athletic trio in OF.
We are building a contender the right way. Sale wouldn't be in my future plans.

Neither would be Story.

[moonslav59]

The team is now 6-1 in Criswell starts. His ERA remains below 3.00, despite some metrics saying he may be getting lucky.

The run support and better pen, when he starts has been lucky, but this guy is getting the job done.

Our staff has a 33% GS rate, which is below the 39% league average, but I'm pretty sure we have more nearmisses than almost anyone else. Some say the 3ER in 6IP choice of stats is flawed, and it does seem like a 4.50 ERA is not "quality,"but I feel like going 5 IP allowing 2 ERs is more "quality," especially these days. Hell, 4 IP w 1 ER allowed is better, too. Using this as a criteria, here are the Sox staff numbers:

4 IP 0-1 ERs
5 IP 0-2 ERs
7 IP 0-3 ERS
9 IP 0-4 ERS

QS/GS Traditional/ Pitcher/ Modified QS
8/10 Houck 8/10 (add a 5.1, 1ER, subtract 6IP, 3 ER)
5/10 Crawford 8/10 (subtracting one 6IP, 3ER)
2/5 Pivetta 4/5
1/7 Bello 5/7
0/4 Whitlock 4/4
0/7 Criswell 5/7 (one game was 4 IP, 2 ER)

You may disagree with my formula, and that's fine, but it's pretty amazing that these 6 SP'ers have these many modified QSs:

34/43 or 79%!

If you count the 2 actual QS (6 IP/ 3ER) I took away, we'd be at 36/43 or 84% of our starts have been quality or good starts. Some of the remaining starts were not all that bad, too.