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Thread: A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

  1. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    The guy who almost ran Theo out of town. Sox definitely need a voice like Larry these days though.
    Sam is not your man?🙈

  2. #167
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    Whitlock would still be in the pen if Gio hadn’t gotten hurt.
    I think they would have still had Whitlock, Winck, Houck, et al prep for the rotation and Whitlock would've earned a spot ahead of Houck.
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    I get MV Pee.

  3. #168
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Plus the Bello extension.
    The worst pitcher of the bunch since ST started.
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  4. #169
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    Not that big of an extension. Casas will be more telling.
    Casas' extension should be less than Bello's. 1b's just don't get paid all that much, especially guys that don't field all that well. If they went year to year with him for a few more years, I don't think it would kill the budget. Seems like Casas is looking at a sky high budget when I'm not sure he's earned it yet.

    I'd offer 6/66 with a team option for a seventh year at 22.5M. Anything more than that is throwing money away IMO.
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    I get MV Pee.

  5. #170
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    IDK, they strive to be Atlanta who is currently 6th in payroll with all their extensions.

    Boston is currently 11th, but remains closer to the A's than they are to the Yankees or Mets.
    True.

    They are just $14M above the league average (spotrac,) but those big spending teams really warp the numbers. (I guess the A's do, too.)

    We are $35M from second tier (#16 in MLB.)

    Add $35M and we'd only move up one slot to #10 and still $22M from #9 CHC..
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  6. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Casas' extension should be less than Bello's. 1b's just don't get paid all that much, especially guys that don't field all that well. If they went year to year with him for a few more years, I don't think it would kill the budget. Seems like Casas is looking at a sky high budget when I'm not sure he's earned it yet.

    I'd offer 6/66 with a team option for a seventh year at 22.5M. Anything more than that is throwing money away IMO.
    It will be interesting to watch how this all works out.

  7. #172
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    True.

    They are just $14M above the league average (spotrac,) but those big spending teams really warp the numbers. (I guess the A's do, too.)

    We are $35M from second tier (#16 in MLB.)

    Add $35M and we'd only move up one slot to #10 and still $22M from #9 CHC..
    Hard to call #16 "second tier." There are clearly quite a few tiers in MLB right now.

    1. NY teams
    2. At or above CBT (#3 Astros - #10 Giants)
    3. Under CBT (#11 Sox - #17 M's)
    4. Well under the CBT (#18 ChiSox - #28 Marlins)
    5. Embarrassing (#29 Pirates and #30 A's)
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    I get MV Pee.

  8. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I think they would have still had Whitlock, Winck, Houck, et al prep for the rotation and Whitlock would've earned a spot ahead of Houck.
    Whitlock has a better repertoire, no question. But to me Houck is a battler. So I couldn't be happier that both are starting and that all 5 have done well in their first starts.

    As I keep reminding everyone--ad nauseum--the 2019 Sox, fresh off the best season in Sox history, also started the season on the West Coast and went 3-8--and basically never recovered, at least not enough to even make the postseason.

  9. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Whitlock has a better repertoire, no question. But to me Houck is a battler. So I couldn't be happier that both are starting and that all 5 have done well in their first starts.

    As I keep reminding everyone--ad nauseum--the 2019 Sox, fresh off the best season in Sox history, also started the season on the West Coast and went 3-8--and basically never recovered, at least not enough to even make the postseason.
    Yes, you keep repeating that, but one reason the Red Sox got off to a bad start was because Cora didn’t have the team ready to play especially the pitching staff, which he ADMITTED, and learned from that.

  10. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Casas' extension should be less than Bello's. 1b's just don't get paid all that much, especially guys that don't field all that well. If they went year to year with him for a few more years, I don't think it would kill the budget. Seems like Casas is looking at a sky high budget when I'm not sure he's earned it yet.

    I'd offer 6/66 with a team option for a seventh year at 22.5M. Anything more than that is throwing money away IMO.
    One of Casas' most similar batters through age 23 is Mark Teixeira, per B-R.com.

    Fifteen years ago, Tex did get an 8 yr / $180mill ($22.5mill AAV) deal from the Yankees. By the time he got that deal, 29yo Teixeira was more established than Casas is, and had won multiple Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. More recently, Freddie Freeman, a clear future Hall of Famer, was only getting 6 year / $162mill contract ($27.7mill AAV). Freeman was 32 years old, but had a Gold Glove, multiple Silver Sluggers and an MVP under his belt.

    These are among the largest contracts ever awards to first basemen. So yes, they really don't break the bank anymore. Casas has age on his side, but also has less hardware than Evan White (4 yr $24mill contract with Seattle, now considered a bust). I don't see Casas breaking the bank. A six year deal like the one above would buy out all his arb years plus first two of free agency and take him to age his age 30 season. He certainly could wait it out and make more money, but an early deal like this buys him plenty of security, but might be better if it was a year shorter and allowed him to reach free agency before his age 30 season. A 29yo free agent just has more earning power.

    I would agree an extension like this, but maybe 5 years before the option probably makes more sense for both sides...

  11. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    Yes, you keep repeating that, but one reason the Red Sox got off to a bad start was because Cora didn’t have the team ready to play especially the pitching staff, which he ADMITTED, and learned from that.
    Meh. He did have Sale and Price pitch fewer innings in ST because of all the IP the season before.

    But what we learned that season is that Sale and Price were both sliding downhill. Both have been vastly overpaid since 2018. The real Porcello, the crappy one, also emerged and lasted just one more season (2020). Eovaldi wasn't much good despite the great 2d half of the 2018 season. ERod emerged as the new ace. And Kimbrel went to the Cubs in 2019--good riddance.

    2019 was the season when, beyond any possible shadow of doubt, JH decided he'd had enough of paying the big bucks. So he fired DD and brought in Chaim Bloom of the Rays. However, JH still had to keep paying big bucks for Price, while he was playing for the Dodgers, and Sale, who went on the IL for several seasons.

  12. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Hard to call #16 "second tier." There are clearly quite a few tiers in MLB right now.

    1. NY teams
    2. At or above CBT (#3 Astros - #10 Giants)
    3. Under CBT (#11 Sox - #17 M's)
    4. Well under the CBT (#18 ChiSox - #28 Marlins)
    5. Embarrassing (#29 Pirates and #30 A's)
    Pretty good laydown except for #5. Rays, ranked 27th, have proven beyond any doubt that you can in fact do more with less even though their system has yet to produce a WS winner. The Pirates, ranked 29th, right now are undefeated. Their payroll is $83M vs the Rays $98M.

    The A's @ $62M are the one bonafide embarrassment. So much for Moneyball.

  13. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Hard to call #16 "second tier." There are clearly quite a few tiers in MLB right now.

    1. NY teams
    2. At or above CBT (#3 Astros - #10 Giants)
    3. Under CBT (#11 Sox - #17 M's)
    4. Well under the CBT (#18 ChiSox - #28 Marlins)
    5. Embarrassing (#29 Pirates and #30 A's)
    I can agree with your divisions into 4 tiers, although spotrac has 11-19 over $128M.

    According to spotrac, we are $21M from #10 SFG and $47M from #9 CHC. We are about $30M from being at the bottom of the 3rd or middle tier.

    We are $60M from your 4th tier and $20M from your 2nd tier.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  14. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Whitlock has a better repertoire, no question. But to me Houck is a battler. So I couldn't be happier that both are starting and that all 5 have done well in their first starts.

    As I keep reminding everyone--ad nauseum--the 2019 Sox, fresh off the best season in Sox history, also started the season on the West Coast and went 3-8--and basically never recovered, at least not enough to even make the postseason.
    Some interesting career comps:

    Pitch 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 and 76-100: RP & SP
    .516>.653>.822>.830 Houck
    .686>.605>.779>.923 Whitlock

    AS SP: 1st PA, 2nd PA, 3rd PA
    .566>.700>.949 Houck
    .761>.660>>1.103 Whitlock
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  15. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Some interesting career comps:

    Pitch 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 and 76-100: RP & SP
    .516>.653>.822>.830 Houck
    .686>.605>.779>.923 Whitlock

    AS SP: 1st PA, 2nd PA, 3rd PA
    .566>.700>.949 Houck
    .761>.660>>1.103 Whitlock
    I could swear it was just last season when we all went round and round about whether Houck could ever get over the "3d time through the lineup" hump. As I recall, he did.

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